Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

Code: Select all

[b]URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2009[/b]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS...

.PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL START AS RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ON THE GRASS ACROSS
MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. PRIMARY TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED
TO SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS RAIN LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHICH IS LIKELY TO CREATE SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER THIS EVENING...STEADY
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

[TexasStorm]

either me ears are not hearing right or something

Channel 8 weather guy, snow might not even make it as snow but as rain,
no road problems expected....

The latest soundings from NWS Fort Worth would support this.

[WacoWx]

I think yall are right with the amount of precip being higher than previously forecasted. Looking NW of San Antonio is reflecting some very good echoes. but it appears that most on this board have overlooked the temperature not being below 32.

I say Dallas gets nada....which of course means another one gets away here in Waco as well.

[ColdFusion]

either me ears are not hearing right or something

Channel 8 weather guy, snow might not even make it as snow but as rain,
no road problems expected....

The latest soundings from NWS Fort Worth would support this.

I've heard nothing about Dallas not getting any snow.

[iorange55]

I think yall are right with the amount of precip being higher than previously forecasted. Looking NW of San Antonio is reflecting some very good echoes. but it appears that most on this board have overlooked the temperature not being below 32.

I say Dallas gets nada....which of course means another one gets away here in Waco as well.

Eh San Angelo was around 35-37 for most of the morning, and now it looks like it's changing to snow there. I think we'll see snow here just have to see how it all plays out, but it looks like a broad area of precip that after awhile all should be making to the ground, so even if the first hour or so, is rain. I'm pretty sure sometime in the middle it'd change to all snow.



And I listened to the WFAA forecast from last night, and he said that early on in the event some of the snow would melt once it gets closer to the ground, and turn to rain, but it should quickly turn to snow. He didn't mention Dallas not getting any snow.

[CaptinCrunch]

System still on track for a 1 to 3 inche snow fall across much of the NTX area. Yes it could start out as rain, but as the column cools it will quickly change over to a all snow event.

[WacoWx]

When I passed out last night, the cloud cover was broken enough allowing for some radiational cooling. My line of thinking was that this would make for a lower temperature than forecasted (31), keeping us below freezing for a longer period of time while the storm moved in.

however, when I awoke, it was 33 (same as when i went to bed). Unless another surge of cold air is on the doorstep, I dont see temps dropping from where they are now. but then again, i'm an idiot compared to some of you here. I'm glad I found this site.

[cheezyWXguy]

When I passed out last night, the cloud cover was broken enough allowing for some radiational cooling. My line of thinking was that this would make for a lower temperature than forecasted (31), keeping us below freezing for a longer period of time while the storm moved in.

however, when I awoke, it was 33 (same as when i went to bed). Unless another surge of cold air is on the doorstep, I dont see temps dropping from where they are now. but then again, i'm an idiot compared to some of you here. I'm glad I found this site.

the temp doesnt have to be below freezing at the surface for snow. It has to be below freezing throughout the entire atmosphere above the surface. And that is what we have. I know the DFW area should see at least some snow, I havent watched for waco though.

[Portastorm]

When I passed out last night, the cloud cover was broken enough allowing for some radiational cooling. My line of thinking was that this would make for a lower temperature than forecasted (31), keeping us below freezing for a longer period of time while the storm moved in.

however, when I awoke, it was 33 (same as when i went to bed). Unless another surge of cold air is on the doorstep, I dont see temps dropping from where they are now. but then again, i'm an idiot compared to some of you here. I'm glad I found this site.

First of all and IMHO, we're all idiots here ... it's a matter of degrees. Get it? Degrees! OK, I'll stop with the terrible puns.

Secondly, to have good radiational cooling you have to have a relatively dry airmass and few clouds. I think in Waco last night you had enough clouds along with the lower level of the atmosphere moistening up that good heat transport from the ground back into the sky was stunted.

[shibumi]

Don't confuse surface temperatures with whether it will snow or not...the surface temp only determines if the snow sticks easily upon falling....snow is not generated at the surface....

I know this is obvious to most, but some replies make it sound as though people are discounting snow because of what they are reading on their thermometers....

[iorange55]

When I passed out last night, the cloud cover was broken enough allowing for some radiational cooling. My line of thinking was that this would make for a lower temperature than forecasted (31), keeping us below freezing for a longer period of time while the storm moved in.

however, when I awoke, it was 33 (same as when i went to bed). Unless another surge of cold air is on the doorstep, I dont see temps dropping from where they are now. but then again, i'm an idiot compared to some of you here. I'm glad I found this site.

Well a cold front doesn't have to come through for the temperature to drop. Like the Christmas Eve storm where I live we were at 40 degrees most of the day, and it started out as rain, but the rain quickly cooled us down, and we were down to 32 and snow within an hour, or so. With no second surge of cold coming in.


Also evaporation will cool us down, so even if the rain is not touching the ground it should help with the cooling process.



and last but not least it doesn't have to be freezing at the surface to snow, but I'm sure 34567 people have already replied saying so.

[WacoWx]

^^^no i get that. but I tend to measure whether or not it snowed by how much is on the ground that will keep me from going to work. I find snow in above 32 degree weather almost as frustrating as rain at 33.

[Tejas89]

KRLD weather guy says rain to snow for DFW around 3 p.m., and then back to rain later tonight due to warming temps.

[natlib]

Snow is not happening here in San Angelo. Temp warmed overnight and is currently sitting at 37 with light rain.

[gboudx]

Here's somthing from jeff this morning.

Next storm system will move into the region late today and into Wednesday.

Potent upper level trough approaching SW TX from N Mexico this morning with shield of rain/sleet/snow mixture expanding across much of TX. Mid level cloud deck has rolled up the coast overnight and this deck will continue to thicken and lower as moist southerly flow overruns the cold dome at the surface. A coastal surface trough will develop into a surface low off the lower TX coast this evening and move up the coast ahead of the short wave ejecting out of Mexico. Widespread light rain will develop this afternoon and increase in coverage and intensity tonight into early Wednesday before ending from west to east Wednesday afternoon. See no need to mention any snow/sleet across SE TX, although the onset of rainfall over the College Station area may mix with sleet early this afternoon. With surface temperatures above freezing there will be no accumulations of any kind.

Expect a widespread rainfall of .5 to 1.5 inches across the region with the heaviest rains focused along and S of US 59 where best moisture and lift will reside.

System will be east of the area early Thursday with dry SW winds allowing warming into the low to mid 60’s prior to a sharp polar front arriving New Year’s Eve evening. Expect gusty north winds under strong cold air advection after dark driving temperatures into the 40’s. Cold arctic air mass will entrench over the region this weekend with lows back near freezing and highs in the lower 50’s.

GFS and other models continue to show a large arctic high building over NW Canada the first week of January and release this air mass almost due south down the great plains next week. Given 1048mb high noted on the GFS over S Dakota ridging southward would expect some pretty cold air to come southward. Will undercut GFS guidance this weekend by 1-4 degrees and then by as much as 5-10 degrees for early to mid next week. GFS keeps noisy sub-tropical jet close by…mainly just south of our region over the coastal bend and south Texas. For now will go with a dry forecast with cold arctic dome in firm control, but may need to add a mention of precipitation at some point in the 4-8 time period given development of NW Gulf surface lows in the GFS…bears close watch.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the chug of moisture is coming in sooner than they expected. Abilene is reporting snow. Keep an eye on the heavier bursts of precip down south.

[msstateguy83]

iam still thinking higher the nws is forecasting, i did trim the numbers back a bit though pushed abit further west then
in the previous forecast. the map speaks for itself along i-35 from gainesville to dfw about 3" east of there the numbers
will go down pretty dramatically east dallas i would say around 2 inches. the heavy stuff will be off to the west around
mineral wells possibly up to 4 inches and down towards the abilene area.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[ColdFusion]

Abilene, TX reporting light snow @ 9:17 and 34 degrees F

[WacoWx]

when the precip begins, how much cooling CAN take place at the surface?

I'll be keeping an eye on the san angelo and abilene stations as they appear to have the same temp, but abilene with lt snow.

[msstateguy83]

obs sites not reporting anything but more then likely light snow reaching the ground now also from stephenville to brownwood...