Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[cycloneye]

Here are the graphics of the 12z ECMWF run I posted earlier.Notice the line of very cold air extends to almost South Florida.This is at the 168 hour timeframe.

[attallaman]

I was watching one of J.B.'s videos on Accuweather which he taped this morning and he's calling for brutally cold temperatures here in the deep south the week after New Years and also stated the possibility of snow along the I-10 corridor from Houston to Florida. He didn't say whether the snow might form north or south of the I-10 corridor. I live well south of the I-10 corridor, I'm less than 3 miles north of the beach so I'll probably get nothing more than cold rain at my location but J.B. also said the low temperatures going all the way down to Orlando would be the coldest temperatures this season and could threaten the citrus crops in Florida.

[Brent]

That may be the coldest frame I've ever seen. We're talking a freeze in Miami, snow in Tampa, probably below zero in the TN Valley and single digits here.

and the amazing thing is... it looks to stay cold for a solid 10 days with each shot colder than the last. Most epic cold outbreaks last at most 3 days here.

[attallaman]

:eek:



That may be the coldest frame I've ever seen. We're talking a freeze in Miami, snow in Tampa, probably below zero in the TN Valley and single digits here.

and the amazing thing is... it looks to stay cold for a solid 10 days with each shot colder than the last. Most epic cold outbreaks last at most 3 days here.

That -10 I see on the MS/AL line is that a surface temperature or an upper atmosphere temperature?

[Jag95]

The 0Z GFS looks like it's got a wetter low pressure again on the 5th, but moves it due east over the gulf, maybe even a tad SE toward S. FL. Kind of strange, but it's still early.

[attallaman]

My extended weather forecast on the NWS website shows I might get some form of frozen precipitation here next Monday with very cold temps. My local TV MET also mentioned that this morning.

[Stormcenter]

This is from the NWS out Of New Orleans, LA.


LONG TERM...
A STRONG POLAR AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
MOVE EAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT TIMING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
IS GOING TO MEAN EVERYTHING WITH THE FCAST STARTING THE NEW WEEK.
HAVE SET A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TO MAINLY SHOW CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM ATTM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO MASS FIELDS. WE DO NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
POINT WITH POP NUMBERS DUE TO THE SHIFTING FROM VERY DRY IN ONE
RUN TO SNOW STORM IN ANOTHER. THIS SCENARIO WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FCAST.

[hurley311]

Monday: A slight chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 44.

Our NWS forecast for Monday...sounds interesting. I wonder how accurate they are on the forecasting?

[One Eye]

I wouldn't be surprised if they took the frozen stuff completely out because of the GFS 06 and GFS12 suggesting the weak low or inverted trough to be supressed to the south.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, the latest model runs are not as bullish with this shortwave and a developing low. Still need to keep an eye on it, cannot totally write it off yet.

[Stormcenter]

This is probably good news. We all know the big past winter events in the south have
rarely been predicted by the models or NWS. Also we are still several days out and the GFS is notorious for going back and forth.

I wouldn't be surprised if they took the frozen stuff completely out because of the GFS 06 and GFS12 suggesting the weak low or inverted trough to be supressed to the south.

[Dean4Storms]

This is probably good news. We all know the big past winter events in the south have
rarely been predicted by the models or NWS. Also we are still several days out and the GFS is notorious for going back and forth.

I wouldn't be surprised if they took the frozen stuff completely out because of the GFS 06 and GFS12 suggesting the weak low or inverted trough to be supressed to the south.

My thoughts exactly!!

[attallaman]

This is probably good news. We all know the big past winter events in the south have
rarely been predicted by the models or NWS. Also we are still several days out and the GFS is notorious for going back and forth.

I wouldn't be surprised if they took the frozen stuff completely out because of the GFS 06 and GFS12 suggesting the weak low or inverted trough to be supressed to the south.

My thoughts exactly!!

Meaning what? I might still see some snow here next week or not?

[Jag95]

This is probably good news. We all know the big past winter events in the south have
rarely been predicted by the models or NWS. Also we are still several days out and the GFS is notorious for going back and forth.

I wouldn't be surprised if they took the frozen stuff completely out because of the GFS 06 and GFS12 suggesting the weak low or inverted trough to be supressed to the south.

The GFS bait-and-switch again. But, like StormCenter said, I've seen it show something in the extended, retract it, and then return it almost exactly as it'd shown originally as the 72-hour window closed in. That south TX snowstorm a couple of years ago was a classic example of that. 72 hours is when I really pay attention. Right now, it's really a crap shoot on how strong this system will be. The ECMWF giving up on it is not a good sign though.

Latest Mobile forecast:

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

[attallaman]

Latest forecast from the NWS for Biloxi for next Monday night:

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

No mention of any precipitation now, last night the NWS was saying possible snow or sleet here next Monday night.

[Dean4Storms]

The cold will be here no doubt. The question is where this shortwave coming into the Gulf from TX. ends up and where the low forms. The HPC has now placed the low further south which looks to bring nothing but some clouds along the coast. However, if the forecasted placement of that low is just 100 miles further north we could see enough moisture to provide some precip. and I think it would be sleet/snow given the cold in place.

[Stormcenter]

It's all about timing and location. I still think it's way too early to call it either
way right now. I like the upcoming set up and we all know it seems like this winter every week we get a Gulf low form and move very close to the coastline so what should make this upcoming week any different? Oh well time will tell.

The cold will be here no doubt. The question is where this shortwave coming into the Gulf from TX. ends up and where the low forms. The HPC has now placed the low further south which looks to bring nothing but some clouds along the coast. However, if the forecasted placement of that low is just 100 miles further north we could see enough moisture to provide some precip. and I think it would be sleet/snow given the cold in place.

[IrishRose]

Bring me some snow please!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Stormcenter, that is what i'm thinking as well. Almost every storm that has developed in the gulf has moved either over or just south of us. Just look at the rain totals for december. And add another 2 inches for us today. Correct me if i'm wrong but todays storm was earlier forecast to move a lot further south and within the 72 hour forecast they were saying it would move just across the coast, which it did. Point being the odds of if a low does develop next week it very well could end up moving more ne then east and come closer to the coast than being shown right now. Unfortunately we will have to wait til at least saturday to get a better idea. In the meantime we can wish and hope.

[RNGR]

.21 inches of ice on the cars here just NE of Atlanta