Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

high sea swells caused some problems in St. Maarten.
a yacht ran aground, flooding, and problems with delivery of fuel to airport due to flooding.

http://www.thedailyherald.com/news/dail ... dm190.html

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/index.php? ... :frontpage

http://www.sxmislandtime.com/index.php? ... &Itemid=76

[cycloneye]

Here are more photos of the big waves event.The last one is a road that was swept away.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/fotogaleria/654201/

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

PRC037-053-089-103-302045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0419.091230T1753Z-091230T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-
153 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA AND FAJARDO

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 151 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED RIVERS TO RISE OVER NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE RIO FAJARDO IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO HIGHWAY 53 IN THE
AREA OF FAJARDO AND NAGUABO.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Macrocane]

Those are some impressive photos cycloneye. Call me crazy but those rough seas are beautiful it's a shame that they can be so deadly and destructive.

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory Extended to 11 AM Friday

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL THE LOCAL ISLANDS...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-310300-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-100101T1500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
356 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AST FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL 11 AM AST FRIDAY.

THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS
OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A NEW GROUP OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD...
NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS WILL INVADE THESE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 16 FEET
AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...BEACHES AND
SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND
THUS THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 0.8 FEET AT 6:49 PM THIS EVENING
1.9 FEET AT 8:57 AM THURSDAY

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.6 FEET AT 9:38 AM THURSDAY

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 1.0 FEET AT 8:11 AM THURSDAY

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Latest Discussion of expected weather and update of swells event

It looks like here we will have a somewhat wet New Years Eve.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DESPITE GENERAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...
LOCAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
AND THEN THE REMNANTS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR FA TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
AND THEN THE REMNANTS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR FA TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...AS
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND STREAM AND RIVER RISES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A REDUCTION IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT (NEW YEARS EVE) BUT DO NOT FEEL VERY CONFIDENT
IN THIS...GIVEN AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALSO...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL 11 AM
AST FRIDAY. THE LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A NEW GROUP OF
LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS WILL INVADE
THESE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO 16 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHEAR LINE OVER AREA PROVIDING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR OVER TIST THROUGH 310100Z. IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
TIST...TJNR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHEAST
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO LOWER 20 RANGE NEARLY ALL SITES. MVFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MID DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT PR AND USVI
SITES AFTER WARDS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A NEW GROUP OF LARGE...LONG
PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS WILL INVADE THESE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE WINDS AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS...
MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Those are some impressive photos cycloneye. Call me crazy but those rough seas are beautiful it's a shame that they can be so deadly and destructive.

You are right about that.Its an atraction to many people to see upclose the waves crashing in the rocks but as we have seen,its not the atraction you would like to get into.

[cycloneye]

Updated Discussion of weather expected for New Years Eve and an update on the swells event

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
925 PM AST WED DEC 30 2009

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...MAINLY
SOUTH OF...OR ALONG...THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED AROUND SAINT CROIX AND
THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS PRESENTLY
BETWEEN THE PUERTO RICO MAINLAND AND SAINT CROIX...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ANY LONGER...BUT HAS ALSO WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE BAND AND SO EXPECT
SHOWERY CLOUDY WEATHER TO RESUME TOMORROW. LITTLE CHANGE WAS
NEEDED TO THE GRIDS HOWEVER EXCEPT TO REFLECT THE LULL IN THE
SHOWERS TONIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SWELL AT BUOY 41043 APPEAR TO BE ARRIVING ON TIME
AND HAVE INCREASED TO ALMOST 7 FEET AS OF 31/00Z. SWELL WILL
ARRIVE ABOUT 8 HOURS LATER HERE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS STRONG...
SINCE THE BUOY IS EAST OF US AND THESE SWELL ARE COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST. EXPECT THESE SWELL TO BEGIN DIMINISHING
FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS IT STANDS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND BE
MOSTLY ISOLATED ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE VI AND TNCM THROUGH
31/13Z AS THE SHEAR LINE OVER THIS AREA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...IN AN ENE
FLOW OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TKPK THROUGH 31/13Z...BUT
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THERE AND REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS SHEAR LINE TO LIFT NW BACK OVER PR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING PREVAILING MVFR TO BOTH VI AND PR TAF SITES AFT
31/15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...ENE 15-20G30KT. SOME IMPROVEMENT
SEEN AFT 31/23Z...AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

[cycloneye]

Morning Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST THU DEC 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRESH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEW YEAR EVE AND
DURING THE FIRST DAY OF 2010. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL WEAKEN...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXIT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR SATURDAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
THIS HAPPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...THEREFORE...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE
MEANTIME...CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SHOWERS WILL BE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WEATHER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...UNTIL
IT DISSIPATED. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL SUGGEST A
MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ AND
TAF SITES OF THE VI...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
VCNTY OF TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 31/12Z. THIS IS A RESULT OF
FAST MOV CLDS/SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. GENERAL LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW FM ENE FLOW AT 15-20 KTS...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
AT THE SFC UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED WITH PASSING SHRA. PREVAILING VFR
EXPECTED AT THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO
LIFT NW BACK OVER PR LATER THIS MORNING...BRINGING INTMT MVFR CONDS
TO VI AND PR TAF SITES AFT 31/15Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...FM ENE
AT 10-20 KTS. SLOW BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFT 31/23Z AS
CLD COVER DISSIPATES.

&&

.MARINE...A NEW GROUP OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH SWELLS WILL INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THESE COMBINED SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 16 FEET AND LOCALLY
HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

[cycloneye]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

[srainhoutx]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

Happy New Year from your SE TX neighbors as well!

[Gustywind]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

Oh tkanks my friend... this guy is incredible: hey Cycloneye HAPPY NEW YEAR :) and my others friends too

[cycloneye]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

Happy New Year from your SE TX neighbors as well!

Happy new year to you from the warm Caribbean.

[msbee]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

Happy New Year from your SE TX neighbors as well!

Happy new year to you from the warm Caribbean.

To all of the above, and most especially to Luis, who works hard to keep this board going, a very
Happy New Year from St. Maarten where it is gray, cloudy, rainy and windy!

[cycloneye]

Last Complete discussion of 2009 by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST THU DEC 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR BEYOND...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE REMNANTS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR FA TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS/NEAR FA TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH STILL DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS...AS PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED TO RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND STREAM RISES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D TODAY HAVE SHOWN AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL...MES0-SCALE VORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS...BUT FORTUNATELY THESE HAVE STAYED MOSTLY
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THEMSELVES.

UNFORTUNATELY...NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF BRIEF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...AS THE REVELERS RING IN 2010 AND
THERE WILL BE QUITE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCALLY WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH ADDITIONAL APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...THE
FIRST OF WHICH COULD MOVE CLOSE TO THE FA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE FINAL OUTCOME OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE OR NOT WITH
THIS FEATURE...WILL PROBABLY NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL THE FINAL
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF UPCOMING "BOMBING" SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF MAINE OCCURS...AS IT IS CAPTURED AND
PULLED AROUND THE CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW. ADDITIONALLY...THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL LARGE IMPACTS WITH NEW OCEAN
SWELLS LOCALLY. STAY TUNED.

WE HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL 11 AM
AST FRIDAY. PER BUOY AND MODEL DATA...THE NEW...LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...PEAKING THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 8 TO 16 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. OF NOTE...GIVEN THESE NEW...NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
SWELLS...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ST CROIX WILL PROBABLY BE
RATHER BORDERLINE...BUT DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HERE AND LEAVE IT UP...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STILL BUILDING SWELLS
AND THE HOLIDAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ALL TIST AND TISX LOW STRATIFORM
CLOUD DECK PRODUCES PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR OVER
TISX AS SOME SUNNY BREAKS THERE HAVE PROVIDED FOR A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTION. MAY SEE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AT
TJSJ AND TIST DUE TO BRISK 20 KT FLOW COMING OFF THE WATERS.
ALSO...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LOW HANGING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER ALL
ELEVATIONS OVER 2500 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...PEAKING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN
CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO FRESH...LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS...
MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

I may miss someone,but below is a list of Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.Happy new year to all!

Msbee
Gustywind
Macrocane
caribepr
Fego
Bat2VI
knotimpaired
expat2carib
Patti
HUC
Playa Coli
abajan
bvigal
HurricaneQueen
Ola
Bajastorm
TheCycloman PR

Happy New Year from your SE TX neighbors as well!

Happy new year to you from the warm Caribbean.

yeah tkanks Luis, HERE IS THE BIG FAMILY as Pete Rodriguez said: " I LIKE IT LIKE THAT"

[Gustywind]

Here are my numerous wishes for 2010 my friends...in these bootles of friendship


You want some?[/size]

[size=200]HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010

[lrak]

Happy NEW YEAR

Thats looks FUN, a toast to the new year! Hmmmm....can't think of any good ones?

"Although prepared for martyrdom by The He Man Woman Haters Club, I preferred that it be postponed."



CHEERS...any good? Around the table toasts.

Too off topic I suppose, so check this out

http://www.srh.weather.gov/ewx/#


Will this go all the way down to the Yucatan?

Poor Farmers! I do a lot of tax returns for this group and goverment hand outs for disasters are ok, raising a good crop for a profit is what they LOVE to do.



Again HAPPY NEW YEAR...

I wish that front would arive here so this sea fog would dissipate.

[cycloneye]