Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[srainhoutx]

Seeing alot of reports tonight from NE GA, NW SC and NW NC of sleet/snow mix and some -SN as well. Congrats folks. Looks as if Central SC and NC will see freezing rain/sleet, but no snow. There is a warm layer alot that will not allow snow growth in those areas. Appears everyone should transition to rain/freezing rain as the night wears on. Another surprise event that guidance did not suggest.

[Brent]

Very interesting...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
837 PM EST WED DEC 30 2009

GAZ006>009-013>016-022>025-027-034>036-311200-
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FORSYTH-
HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-
837 PM EST WED DEC 30 2009

...LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY IS SPREADING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A RELATIVELY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAS ALLOWED THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLOWLY THROUGH LATE
EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THIS
EVENING ACROSS GWINNETT AND FORSYTH COUNTIES.

WHILE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GILMER
TO GWINNETT TO MADISON COUNTY...THESE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY
BE ON GRASSY AREAS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS DECKS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS...ALTHOUGH CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE USED WHEN CROSSING
BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

$$

MSR

This was NOT forecast. I get the Atlanta locals here and they were all ho hum on it(said maybe a brief mix).

[Brent]

[srainhoutx]

Just wait on the next shortwave on New Years Brent. NAM suggests it will also offer some surprises as well.

[attallaman]

What was your image? All I see is a box with a red "X".

[Stephanie]

Can you see it now attallaman? I see both pictures.

[attallaman]

Can you see it now attallaman? I see both pictures.

Still can't see it.

[attallaman]

Can you see it now attallaman? I see both pictures.

What were the images of? Winter weather model runs? I did a logout then login again and still can't see what you saw. That's weird.

[RNGR]

PLEASE COME TRUE! haha

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, if the 00z GFS played out, then that would be crazy! I am supposed to be heading from Charlotte, NC over to Boone, NC next Friday and I am planning to stay a night there in the mountains. If this model run is correct (which being over 200 hours out I am still skeptical about), then I might be in the North Carolina mountains at a prime time to experience a major snowstorm. This is going to be interesting to watch for sure!

[Brent]

PLEASE COME TRUE! haha

I was just coming to post this... I only wish it were not beyond 7 days.

[attallaman]

Can you see it now attallaman? I see both pictures.

I can see them now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is not as snowy, but it is definitely still as cold, if not colder, than the 00z run.











If this run were to be correct, then Atlanta, GA and Charlotte, NC would flirt with 14F (or colder) for several mornings in a row. That is definitely not a very common occurrence.

[One Eye]

Anyone see the latest GFS run 1200. What an artic outbreak with the 0 line pushing almost in the southern gulf! Not to mention a greater chance of winter precip mid week or so for the gulf coast states. The artic oscillation seems stay negative which would suppport the model. I believe the Euro model is also in line with this cold outbreak.

[Brent]

BMX:

AT THIS TIME...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DID ADD A SMALL MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERING THE PICTURE BUT WITH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POINT HERE IS THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE COLD
AIR STILL LURKING AROUND AND A GULF LOW DEVELOPING. STAY TUNED.

FFC:

WITH COLD AIR BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER GEORGIA...A
LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COULD BE INTERESTING.
HOWEVER...THAT REMAINS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

HUN:

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FORMING
IN THE WRN GULF ON FRI BEFORE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF SAT.
FOR NOW...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS FAR AS MODEL
CONSISTENCIES GO AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE STATES.

Memphis:

MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AREA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER...BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

Jackson:

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY OUTLOOKS THIS FAR
OUT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...EITHER
COMPOSED OF ICE AND SNOW...OR JUST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY VERY WELL BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

Nashville:

THE
QUESTION IS, WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY GET OUT THE REFRIGERATOR
WITHOUT FACING OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL? THE FAR EXTENDED
FORECAST, FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 9-10 SEEMS TO SAY NO, BUT
THAT`S A LONG WAY OFF AND A LOT OF THINGS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. EITHER WAY, THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
AN UNUSUALLY LONG PERIOD OF FRIGID CONDITIONS FOR THE MID STATE.
BRRRRRRR!

Incredible... not sure I've ever seen all the NWS offices mentioning a winter storm 7 days out.

[One Eye]

I'm hopefull there will be some flakes make it to the coast, if not I'll have to make a road trip. The last winter precip in early December made it just 20 miles north of me. I did a road trip about midnight after watching winter nexrad and saw first sleet then a changover to snow. I guess we'll have to wait this one out and see if the models verify.

[attallaman]

BMX:

AT THIS TIME...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DID ADD A SMALL MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERING THE PICTURE BUT WITH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE POINT HERE IS THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE COLD
AIR STILL LURKING AROUND AND A GULF LOW DEVELOPING. STAY TUNED.

FFC:

WITH COLD AIR BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER GEORGIA...A
LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH COULD BE INTERESTING.
HOWEVER...THAT REMAINS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

HUN:

BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FORMING
IN THE WRN GULF ON FRI BEFORE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF SAT.
FOR NOW...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS FAR AS MODEL
CONSISTENCIES GO AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE STATES.

Memphis:

MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE AREA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER...BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

Jackson:

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY OUTLOOKS THIS FAR
OUT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...EITHER
COMPOSED OF ICE AND SNOW...OR JUST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAY VERY WELL BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

Nashville:

THE
QUESTION IS, WILL BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY GET OUT THE REFRIGERATOR
WITHOUT FACING OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL? THE FAR EXTENDED
FORECAST, FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 9-10 SEEMS TO SAY NO, BUT
THAT`S A LONG WAY OFF AND A LOT OF THINGS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. EITHER WAY, THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING
AN UNUSUALLY LONG PERIOD OF FRIGID CONDITIONS FOR THE MID STATE.
BRRRRRRR!

Incredible... not sure I've ever seen all the NWS offices mentioning a winter storm 7 days out.

What did the NWS office in NOLA have to say about any possible gulf coast snow event?

[attallaman]

I'm hopefull there will be some flakes make it to the coast, if not I'll have to make a road trip. The last winter precip in early December made it just 20 miles north of me. I did a road trip about midnight after watching winter nexrad and saw first sleet then a changover to snow. I guess we'll have to wait this one out and see if the models verify.

You got on the road and headed north for the remote chance to see some snow while sleet was falling as you drove north?

[Jag95]

I'm hopefull there will be some flakes make it to the coast, if not I'll have to make a road trip. The last winter precip in early December made it just 20 miles north of me. I did a road trip about midnight after watching winter nexrad and saw first sleet then a changover to snow. I guess we'll have to wait this one out and see if the models verify.

I made a trip to Laurel and back that night. I ran through one moderate snow band. It never covered the ground, but that's ok. I saw in the Mobile AFD that they're watching that late-week system too, so maybe we'll get another chance.

[attallaman]

I'm hopefull there will be some flakes make it to the coast, if not I'll have to make a road trip. The last winter precip in early December made it just 20 miles north of me. I did a road trip about midnight after watching winter nexrad and saw first sleet then a changover to snow. I guess we'll have to wait this one out and see if the models verify.

I made a trip to Laurel and back that night. I ran through one moderate snow band. It never covered the ground, but that's ok. I saw in the Mobile AFD that they're watching that late-week system too, so maybe we'll get another chance.

If this winter weather also becomes a threat to SE/LA, SW/MS as well as coastal MS will a thread be started for those areas so those of us from those areas can discuss what everyone in TX is talking about today?