Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[attallaman]

Iam sorry but what are the broadcast perosnalities.

The meteorologist (weathermen)

You mean someone like TWC's newest broadcast personality, Chris Warren, who while reporting live from Chicago last week during a snow storm said 3 times during his report that the Dakotas were located east of Chicago?

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY TODAY ACROSS SE TX AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES IN OVR THE
REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
TONIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
RURAL CENTRAL AREAS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BY
TOMORROW AFT...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND COOL TEMPS
ON SAT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF RAIN
RETURN ON SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TX ON
SUN NIGHT.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TO START THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
SUPPORT A CHG OVR TO SOME SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HAVE MIN/MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW THE GFS MEX GUIDANCE ON THU
AND FRI OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD BE VERY COLD
CONSIDERING THE SOURCE REGION AND SNOW PACK THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CEN AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STAY TUNED.

[Tireman4]

Iam sorry but what are the broadcast perosnalities.

The meteorologist (weathermen)

You mean someone like TWC's newest broadcast personality, Chris Warren, who while reporting live from Chicago last week during a snow storm said 3 times during his report that the Dakotas were located east of Chicago?

Oh no he did not. LOL. That is it, GEOGRAPHY lessons for everyone!!!

[natlib]

From the San Angelo Forecast Discussion:

Midweek will see a potent polar disturbance move south through
western Canada and dive into the Central Plains. This system will
erode the eastern extent of the persistent middle/upper level ridge
over the western states...allowing some of the coldest air of the
season to push south deep into the plains states behind a strong
cold front that will move through the forecast area on Wednesday.
Sub-zero 850mb temperatures will push as far south as northern
Mexico by Thursday morning...with -6c to -8c 850mb temperatures
forecasted over the County Warning Area by Friday morning. With this polar air-
mass settling over the area...should see afternoon surface
temperatures struggling to get above freezing on Thursday...with
morning lows in the teens over most of the area by Friday morning.

[iorange55]

I'm worried that we just might get cold, and while I like cold I like big winter storms even more, so I'm hoping the models go back to what they showed 3 days ago. I doubt it, but I really hope so.


Or at least an inch, or two so it'll be on the ground for a few days while we hover around freezing.

[attallaman]

I'm worried that we just might get cold, and while I like cold I like big winter storms even more, so I'm hoping the models go back to what they showed 3 days ago. I doubt it, but I really hope so.


Or at least an inch, or two so it'll be on the ground for a few days while we hover around freezing.

You mean you won't be hovering by the fire sippin' on some warm egg nog?

[srainhoutx]

I'm worried that we just might get cold, and while I like cold I like big winter storms even more, so I'm hoping the models go back to what they showed 3 days ago. I doubt it, but I really hope so.


Or at least an inch, or two so it'll be on the ground for a few days while we hover around freezing.

Just keep in mind that the GFS tends to show a pattern well in the medium range. The where and what features are always 'tuned in' the closer we get to the event itself.

[Ntxw]

I'm worried that we just might get cold, and while I like cold I like big winter storms even more, so I'm hoping the models go back to what they showed 3 days ago. I doubt it, but I really hope so.


Or at least an inch, or two so it'll be on the ground for a few days while we hover around freezing.

With such a powerful surge of cold, it would be surprising not to see a low\storm set up somewhere along the boundary ahead of the cold air. JB has stated that models can fail at working with arctic surges in that they try to form systems along the further southern polar front (at that time would be over the middle to southern gulf) vs an approaching arctic front which would lag behind.

[southerngale]

My current forecast from NWS:

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.


And they're often too high with the temps, and usually conservative this far out. Holy Moly. It's gonna get cold.

Now just add some snow on the ground.

[txagwxman]

18z cold, but not teens Houston, mid 20s...
but 18z gfs typically stinks...

[Portastorm]

Per the GFS, it looks pretty dry until next weekend when overrunning starts in earnest.

Like srainhoutx points out though the details on short waves and the STJ in general are difficult to nail down this far out. We'll keep our fingers crossed!

[severe]

I'm worried that we just might get cold, and while I like cold I like big winter storms even more, so I'm hoping the models go back to what they showed 3 days ago. I doubt it, but I really hope so.


Or at least an inch, or two so it'll be on the ground for a few days while we hover around freezing.

Me too. What a waste of some of the coldest air we've seen in a while, maybe.
I think something will form to our southwest here in southeast Texas.
Nothing to back this hunch up except the pattern we've been in as of late. That STJ has been noisy all winter, and I see no reason for it to go silent.

[HockeyTx82]

WOW, now that is cold!!!!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 4&map.y=43

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2010

.AVIATION...
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LAID UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG IT.
OUR CURRENT KDFW TRACON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BACK
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE WAVE EXITS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THE
FRONT WILL SAGS DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS. AS THE FRONT NEARS/ENTERS
THE DFW METROPLEX MIDDAY SATURDAY...IT WILL WASH OUT AND FLOW WILL
RETURN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY REST OF THE TAF FORECAST.

KACT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN TREND
EASTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CIGS/SKIES VFR BOTH KACT AND KDFW THROUGH END OF TAF CYCLE. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2010/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A BLOCKING HIGH PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
FAVORING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. LATEST BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR IS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WILL BE DIRECTED SOUTHEAST WITH NORTH TEXAS ON THE SW
FRINGE OF THIS AIRMASS. SUNNY...COOL WEATHER FOR TOMORROW...BUT A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR SUNDAY. BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT FOR ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO HELP TO PULL SOME COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST...
REINFORCING THE COLD TEMPS OVER OUR REGION MON-TUE.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALASKA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS
OVER NW CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. INTENSIFYING NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE WILL HELP PEEL A CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR AWAY FROM A POLAR VORTEX SITUATED ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO AND SEND IT SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK WITH A
1045 MB HIGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE FORECAST OF
COLDER TEMPS BY LATE WEEK...AND THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW COLD TO GO WITH TEMPS. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE
SEEN IN A FEW YEARS...AND THE FORECAST UPPER PATTERN AND TEMPS
ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO ONE THAT OCCURRED IN EARLY JAN OF 2002.
MODEL CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLES AND CLIMO OF THIS PATTERN ALL POINT
TOWARD FAIR SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS /THU-FRI/ WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC 500MB CHARTS SUGGEST LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS COLD OUTBREAK BEING ANY MORE SEVERE THAN THIS
FOR A FEW REASONS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE POLAR VORTEX...OR CORE OF
THE REALLY COLD AIR...WILL STAY IN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE. ALL THE HISTORIC COLD OUTBREAKS INVOLVED INVOLVED A
POLAR VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OF 50N. ALSO MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN
SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS A BIT TOO FAR EAST WITH TOO MUCH
WEST-EAST TENDENCY IN ITS MOVEMENT. AGAIN...THIS SUGGESTS A
POTENT...BUT ONLY TWO-THREE DAY PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER...BUT
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
SNOW...AS MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION LAYER IS COMPLETELY
ABSENT FROM ALL MODELS. CLIMO SAYS NW FLOW IS ALWAYS STARVED FOR
MOISTURE. UNLESS THERE WE SEE AN INDICATION IN THE MODELS THAT
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR RETROGRADE WEST...THIS UPPER
PATTERN ONLY SUPPORTS FLURRIES...AND FEEL SUCH A LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ON DAY 5-6 DOES NOT WARRANTS AN
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

[gofrogs]

I hate to break it to you but iam not seeing any precip to go with the cold its just not going to happen sorry guys. Couls set up ground temeratures nicley though.

[Snowman67]

I hate to break it to you but iam not seeing any precip to go with the cold its just not going to happen sorry guys. Couls set up ground temeratures nicley though.

I agree it looks fairly dry at the moment, but one thing I have learned over the years regarding winter weather in Texas is that you can't be sure about anything this far out.

[Texas Snowman]

From Norman NWS AFD this afternoon. They are showing chances of snow in southern Oklahoma along the Red River near my backyard for late this next week along with sub-freezing highs.

THEN THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT
WITH A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING A 1045 MB HIGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD...BRINGING
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. ASIDE
FROM A FEW OUTLIERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
TAKES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -15 C IN PART OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY. THOSE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...WHICH IS QUITE A FEAT AT THIS LATITUDE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW WHEN THE FRONT...BUT IT IS NOT
YET CLEAR WHETHER SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE. WE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY...BUT MADE NO FURTHER CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED.

[Texas Snowman]

Just as an FYI, harkening back to some of the memorable arctic blasts that have occurred here along the Red River, it seems to me that most snow and/or ice accumulations have usually come on the front end of things.

In December 1983, we had a 4-6" snowfall here in Grayson County a day or so before the mother of all arctic outbreaks commenced. During the record sub-freezing cold snap, a few minor snow events took place, but only a dusting occcurred at best if memory serves correct.

Also remember a pretty big arctic front in December 1988 with 1-3" of snow on the front end. Was duck hunting that morning in howling northerly winds, temps in the teens, and snow flying. Cold lasted up until Christmas Eve and snow stayed on the ground for two or three days straight.

In December 1989, when we went sub-zero in my backyard, no snow that I can recall. Ditto on the Feb. 1996 cold snap right after the Cowboys beat the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX - cold but dry.

Finally, a December 2000 cold snap that lasted 2-3 days up here had a little sleet on the front end.

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove had some interesting thoughts today in the Houston Examiner. Well worth the read...

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -645-PM-CT

[richtrav]

Over at the KHOU forum wxman57 posted this of the 1989 arctic outbreak

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure8.png



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/figure9.png



People had been saying it was a 1060+ high when that wasn't the case. It was 1054 dropping down into the U.S. which is not far from what this one is showing at 1052. This one weakens faster, but that is something that can change. Obviously other factors go into play like how cold the airmass is it's dragging down, and we won't know that till a little closer to the event. I'm not saying this will be like 1989, but just wanted to point out it may not be as an extreme different set-up than people thought. My opinion is that the event won't hold as it is it'll either modify itself, or it'll be considerably colder than what the models are showing. Just have to wait and see how cold the air is that it's dragging down.

Dec 1989 was odd in that there have been much stronger highs moving down out of Canada that didn't result in cold outbreaks nearly so disastrous, especially here in South Texas. There was something about the setup that was just right (or rather just wrong) that turned what probably should have been a mid-20s event down here into two nights in the teens. Heck judging by the damage to vegetation I believe they saw the low 20s down to the Tropic. So how the setup in Dec 89 would have resulted in the 2nd coldest outbreak on record down here is a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Merely an improbable series of most unfortunate events? The high of late Jan/Feb 1989 was stronger, much stronger if I recall correctly, but it barely went a few degrees below freezing here when it finally came down. I guess it's like hurricanes, where even minor alterations can make all the difference between a forgettable close call and the very painful Big One. A few degrees is a matter of life and death, especially for plants.

In any case judging by the setup it doesn't look like that is what's in store for us - at least for the moment - but the frequency of cold outbreaks this winter is already shaping up to make this one of the coldest winters of the past two decades. If these generally below normal temperatures keep up even a few more weeks (and it looks like it will) it'll be right up there with 1995-96, 2000-2001 and Jan/Feb 2007.

By the way if anyone knows where more maps of memorable Arctic outbreaks are on the internet I'd love to have a look (ones like Jan or Dec '62, Jan '77, Jan '82, Dec '83, Jan and Feb '85, Feb '89, Dec '90, etc)