quasi; quasi biennial oscillation 2010 2011

[gigabite]

[gigabite]

PRIMARY ANALOG YEAR

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

ONLY 6 STORMS; DOUBLE THAT IT IS ONLY 12

I think the the moon path theory is around 60 percent accurate cold (unadjusted)

If you put the 2 to 4 major storms on top for global warming you got a 10 count season with atleast one (1) catagory 5 storm, and one northern gulf land fall, but a lot of low pressure.

[gigabite]

The other primary analog year is 1955, actually the analog distance is shorter, but the delta latitude component is smaller. That is delta of -5.2 for 1977 vs a + 5.8 delta for 1955.

The colder latitude model would certainly produce more storms. It is just that the latitude is such a critical component that I think it should carry more weight. Double 12 and you got 24 add 4 to that and you got 28 with 5 U.S. landfalls and 10 major storms.



A positive QBO is an indicator of a stronger tropical season. 2005 is an anomaly a smaller delta with a greater storm count.

This might be indicative of a optimal moon latitude for storms. The el Nino is directly related to the latitude of the new moon at aphelion. That could be a solid hypothesis.


If I handicap 1977 with 3 more prorated storms plus 4 that would be 13 storms total still below average.

2005 was the end of four warm years at N0, W180 2011.

[gigabite]

When a comparison is done between the latitude of the moon and the season storm frequency over a period of 65 years, which is a little much because the definition of tropical cyclone can be filled more frequently after goes 12, because of improved capability of the sensing equipment, the storm count is consistently below average except for the 2000 season.

stem and leaf patterns

Latitude Frequency..........Analog Distance Frequency
........15..1...............................13....1
.........9...1...............................12....1
.........8...3...............................10....1
.........6...1................................7....1
...............................................6....1

That gives a 9 percent chance of an above average season for 2011 by moon path definition.