SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Nederlander]

is there any hope for some wintry precipitation on the long range models? whats the GFS have in store?

EDIT: I just went and did a little research of my own, and it looks like the gfs is showing below freezing temps for the 6-11 day range.. lots of moisture in the gulf too... i guess anything can happen this far out though..

[southerngale]

It got down to 27° overnight here, quite a bit lower than expected. Frost everywhere this morning. It even got to 30° down at the airport! Cold weather and freezes aren't the problem. I'm not sure how many freezes there have been at the airport, but it's gotten below freezing numerous times here (just west of Beaumont, outside city limits) per my thermometer and KFDM's WeatherNET stations. It's just hard to get that really cold weather and the precip at the same time! grrrr. It's currently 42° with a cold rain.

Maybe next week...

[attallaman]

I was watching one of J.B.'s videos on Accuweather which he taped this morning and he's calling for brutally cold temperatures here in the deep south the week after New Years and also stated the possibility of snow along the I-10 corridor from Houston to Florida. He didn't say whether the snow might form north or south of the I-10 corridor. I live well south of the I-10 corridor, I'm less than 3 miles north of the beach so I'll probably get nothing more than cold rain at my location but J.B. also said the low temperatures going all the way down to Orlando would be the coldest temperatures this season and could threaten the citrus crops in Florida.

[Jagno]

Well it looks like we'll usher out the Old Year with alot of rain here. However, New Years day is suppose to be sunny and mild. I'll take it!

attallaman;
I'll even take snow over deep freezes or even ice. So far our weather is calling for lows around 30 Monday night and highs only in the 40's on Tuesday so JB doesn't seem to be too far off on the colder trend although I'm not so sure that we'll see enough moisture to support the I-10 snow event. It would be rare to get snow twice in one winter for our area.

[southerngale]

Merry Christmas guys & gals! Sitting at 35° - had a low of 28° it sure feels like Christmas! It's definitely not as windy as yesterday, but wind chills are in the upper 20's currently. Brrr!! And it looks like some pretty chilly temps for the foreseeable future. We just need some moisture to add to the mix! heh


Edit at noon: it's now a balmy 40° - there's still a layer of ice in my birdbath. So much better than shorts on Christmas! Yeah, I'm one of those who can't stand it when it's warm on Christmas. It's just not right.

Congratulations on your Dallas Cowboys in their victory against the Washington Redskins, my New Orleans Saints didn't do as good against Tampa Bay today.

I just saw this... thanks! That win clinched us a spot in the playoffs. Now off to beat the Eagles on Sunday to win the division. Your Saints have done remarkably well this year.

[southerngale]

Well it looks like we'll usher out the Old Year with alot of rain here. However, New Years day is suppose to be sunny and mild. I'll take it!

attallaman;
I'll even take snow over deep freezes or even ice. So far our weather is calling for lows around 30 Monday night and highs only in the 40's on Tuesday so JB doesn't seem to be too far off on the colder trend although I'm not so sure that we'll see enough moisture to support the I-10 snow event. It would be rare to get snow twice in one winter for our area.

It was colder than that today. Of course Monday is nearly a week away and the NWS would be conservative this far off, but I think some of the models are predicting much colder temps. I guess JB is buying it. If it happens, I sure hope it brings some snow with it!

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove tonight in the Houston Examiner...

As we ring in the New Year, under a rare blue moon at the start of a decade, many will be pondering a Houston that will have a northern-style winter. I cannot tell you if any snow is on the horizon over the next 60 days, but cold temperatures surely will be. The interaction of the subtropical jet stream with persistent blocking and ridge formation from higher latitudes is bound to produce cloudiness and a cold rain from time to time, perhaps as soon as Thursday evening before dry values from the Great Plains arrive. Sprinkles could develop with the passage of an upper air disturbance from Mexico on Sunday, too.

The presence of a closed 500MB low over New England over the next week or so means that some locations east of the Rocky Mountains and Rio Grande River are likely to see some unusual chill. As I said, it is problematic if the strong southern branch wind fields interact with the cA regime to produce snow or sleet in the Bayou City. There are some hints of ice pellets in the computer models on January 6 and again on January 10. We will have to wait and see if anything becomes of this threat for frozen types.

Have a great holiday weekend, 2010, and next decade everyone!

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... day-123109

[srainhoutx]

Latest from Jeff:

Dense fog blankets all of the area this morning with visibilities in the 1 mile to zero range. Should see the fog burn off by late morning as dry westerly winds develop. Models have come in much wetter for this afternoon and tonight and incoming shortwave ove New Mexico does indeed look stronger and a tad southward than projections yesterday. While moisture levels are on the low side...impressive jet stream dynamics will likely result in a bout of showers this evening prior to the passage of a strong cold front late this evening.

Cooler and drier on Friday under cold air advection regime behind this modified polar boundary. Will likely see some locations touch freezing Saturday AM north and west before the next coastal system begins to develop off the lower coast and send clouds back over the region...as out rainfall every 2-3 days pattern continues. Will go below guidance temperatures Sunday as thickening clouds and light rain will keep highs in the lower to middle 50's. Next strong cold blasts through the region late Sunday...moels have been waffering around with how much cold air dumps in behind this boundary. Experience this winter has been colder and wetter wins the debate...so will undercut guidance yet again and then await the next coastal trough formation almost like clock work about 2 days after the Sunday event. Not sure how much clearing there will be in the Mon-Tues period as the coastal feature may sling enough cloud cover back northward.

Next item or greater concern is the very cold air mass building over NW Canada. ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all show a favorable upper level pattern by the middle to end of next week to deliver this bitter cold straight southward down the plains. GFS shows a better push to the SE with a galcing blow to TX. Currently will favor the straight south shot, but not go anywhere near the extreme numbers guidance is putting out...for now will lower highs into the 40's and lows into the upper 20's...which is much warmer than guidance...models have been a little bullish of late with these outbreaks in the long range and then too warm in the shorter range. Noisy sub-tropical jet will remain close by which will also bear close watch. It is only a matter of time before the frequent cold fronts and frequent Gulf lows produce another winter weather event over the lower half of TX. It is interesting to note that of the 20% of winter snows in south Texas, 67% have happened during El Nino winters.

Happy New Year SE TX/SW LA folks! Think Snow!!!

[Ptarmigan]

I happen to look at the Weather Museum link and notice that there was no record of snow between 1895 to 1912.

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

However, it turns out there was snow between those times:
January 10, 1906-1 inch
February 15, 1909-0.5 inch

Possible Snow Events
January 20-21, 1906 (Went from a high of 75 on the 20th to low of 25 on the 21st.
February 4-6, 1906 (Went from a high of 59 on the 4th to low of 18 on that same date. Stayed freezing for more than 24 hours!)

Looks like it is possible that it was not only 1973 that it snowed three times in a year and same winter. Assuming those possible snow events in 1906 did happen. It means that it could of snowed three times that year. So the two years we saw three snow events in Houston are 1906 and 1973.

One year I would be interested if it snowed is 1886, the year of the Indianola Hurricane. Also, four hurricanes affected Texas, in which three made landfall on the state. That same season, three made landfall on Florida. Some thing that would not happened until 2004 for Florida.

[southerngale]

I'm always thinking snow, srainhoutx, at least during winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Does anyone remember the Great Freeze of December 1989? I certainly do. It was bitterly cold and snowed that time. Strange thing is after December 1989, it was mild, for the rest of the winter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/

[southerngale]

A snippet from KFDM in Beaumont:

A major arctic outbreak is expected to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the potential for the coldest air in over 10 years. At this time, no freezing rain or snow is expected with this arctic invasion.


I hope some nice precip shows up in the models.


My current NWS forecast for late next week:

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.


Brrrr!

[Tireman4]

As you know Southerngale, just like the roller coaster ride that is our Cowboys, things change so much. We could have a snowstorm or just frigid weather. Who knows...LOL

[CajunMama]

Does anyone remember the Great Freeze of December 1989? I certainly do. It was bitterly cold and snowed that time. Strange thing is after December 1989, it was mild, for the rest of the winter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/

I remember it! The house we owned at that time was a "boom time" house. Not well insulated i guess and the fireplace flue was broken so it stayed open. Our heater ran for 55 minutes, then cut off for 5 minutes then started running again. I don't remember what my electric bill was but i'm sure it was a doozy.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff...

Significant cold air outbreak expected next week.

Cold surface high will shift eastward tonight allowing weak return flow to become established and the formation of a coastal surface trough. Latest guidance shows this trough developing more southward with rain chances reduced over the land areas of SE TX. Clouds will increase tonight into Sunday and light rain/fog may result in the isentropic regime along the coast late Sunday.

Next strong cold front will cross the area late Sunday keeping below normal temperatures in place for the first part of the week. Coastal surface trough is forced again off the lower TX coast resulting in cloudy and soggy conditions Mon PM -Wed PM. Not sure there will be a lot of measurable rain as compared to drizzle and cloudy conditions. This will hold temperatures well below normal for next week before the bottom falls out late next week.

Arctic Air Outbreak:

Major upper air pattern amplification will be underway early this week as strong ridge builds along the US west coast allowing a massive downstream trough to carve out over the central US. Models have been very consistent with the formation of a tremendous 1050mb arctic high over NW Canada during this amplification with bitter cold air becoming entrained in the flow and breaking loose and heading southward. GFS shows a 1048mb high entering the US via N Montana which is an excellent entry point for a rapid and intense cold air plunge straight down the front range. Will introduce the very cold air mass Wed PM with the arctic boundary blasting through the entire Gulf of Mexico. 850mb temps. progged to fall well below 0C suggest frigid weather Thurs-Sun. Will undercut GFS guidance by at least 5-8 degrees and may need to go 10 degrees colder for Friday. Freezing temperatures will onset Thursday PM...if not sooner...with hard freezes likely Friday AM and even colder Sat AM. Highs on Friday even under sunny skies may only reach 35 degrees in Houston with temperatures up north staying at or below freezing. Will go as low at 20 at IAH for Saturday morning and this may be too warm with upper 10's across the northern 1/2 of SE TX. Cold air plunge looks to affect the entire state with sub-freezing and potentially hard freeze into the S TX citrus belt. Given expected intensity of this air mass and long duration of sub-freezing temperatures expected significant damage to tropical vegetation and citrus is likely even when protected. This event bears close watch as it could be some of the coldest air to affect TX in many years. Hopefully the sub-tropical jet can provide a few clouds to help mitigate the slide and give many of our yards a fighting chance after years of mild winters and extensive population of tropical plants into this region.

[Big Easy]

Borderline comical.

My kids could have written this. These guys must be hung over still. Not much detail at all. I wonder what gives?

FXUS64 KLIX 021744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...FCST GOING AS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
RATHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LL TEMPS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH ABV 50
DEGREES. A LIGHT NRLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
ONLY CLOUDS TO MENTION WILL BE THIN CIRRUS. SO OTHER THAN HIGHS
BEING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

[Tireman4]

Borderline comical.

My kids could have written this. These guys must be hung over still. Not much detail at all. I wonder what gives?

FXUS64 KLIX 021744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...FCST GOING AS EXPECTED AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
RATHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LL TEMPS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH ABV 50
DEGREES. A LIGHT NRLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
ONLY CLOUDS TO MENTION WILL BE THIN CIRRUS. SO OTHER THAN HIGHS
BEING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

Remember children, never drink and forecast weather. Bad combination!!

[southerngale]

As you know Southerngale, just like the roller coaster ride that is our Cowboys, things change so much. We could have a snowstorm or just frigid weather. Who knows...LOL

Yeah.

I vote for snowstorm.

I posted the Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday forecast from NWS yesterday afternoon. Last night, they raised the temps some. Then the models trended even colder than the original forecast (now that that's how it will turn out though). I guess they're re-evaluating this possible plunge into the Arctic tundra. They haven't added anything past Friday on the 7 day and it now reads:

Thursday:

Thursday Night:

Friday:


It's been blank for a little while. They're doing a good job of explaining the possibilities in the discussions. I would imagine pinpointing actual numbers this far out is quite difficult. Plenty of time to fine tune, though.

[One Eye]

That is the mid day discussion not the main day that is posted at 4a.m. Here is the link. [url][/http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1url]

[southerngale]

The models are colder and NWS has upped the temps here.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 36.


That's not even as cold as it got on Dec. 5th. It got down to 23 here and it even hit 27 down at the airport. It's been 27-29 quite a bit lately during our "real" winter for the south. (29 this morning)

So either they're just being conservative since this is supposed to be the coldest we've seen in many years, or they're not buying it?