SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:22pm WST on Friday the 1st of January 2010
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low has developed near 8S 96E and is forecast to intensify and move to
the southwest. There is the chance the low will reach cyclone intensity in the
vicinity of 10S 94E late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday. The system is
expected to continue to move to the southwest and be west of 90E, most likely on
Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday :Moderate
Sunday :High
Monday :Moderate


There are no other significant lows in the region, although a weak low lies over
land over the Top End in the Northern Territory associated with the monsoon
trough. This low is likely to remain east of 125E in the next three days - refer
to the Tropical Cyclone 3 day outlook for the Northern Region for details.

NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90 -125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 96.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 311907Z AMSR-E 36
GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
WEAKLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND NORTH PERIPHERY
OF THE POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY WITH 20-25 KNOT WESTERLIES AND
EASTERLIES OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 96.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING PRIMARILY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AS WELL AS AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
WITHIN THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN FLANK. A 011429Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS THAT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER
INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS ALSO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1007.6 MB.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS BECOME STRONGER AND
MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE 01/07Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION HAS STRENGTHENED TO +1C FROM NEGATIVE VALUES 24
HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 96.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING PRIMARILY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AS WELL AS AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
WITHIN THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN FLANK. A 011429Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS THAT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER
INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS ALSO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1007.6 MB.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS BECOME STRONGER AND
MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE 01/07Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION HAS STRENGTHENED TO +1C FROM NEGATIVE VALUES 24
HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

This is (barely) in TCWC Jakarta's region, and they're calling it a Tropical Depression. The BoM is still referring to it as a Tropical Low.

Jakarta bulletin:
IDJ21030
BADAN METEOROLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

BULETIN INFORMASI SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 09:08 WIB 02/01/2010

Depresi Tropis 98S

Kondisi tanggal 02/01/2010 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 9.8LS, 95.0BT (sekitar 1040 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Arah Gerak : timur tenggara, kecepatan 8 knots (15 km/jam) bergerak menjauhi wilayah Indonesia
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 25 knots (45 km/jam)

Prediksi 24 jam, tanggal 03/01/2010 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 10.5LS, 92.4BT (sekitar 1320 km sebelah barat daya Bengkulu)
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 25 knots (45 km/jam)

Prediksi 48 jam, tanggal 04/01/2010 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 11.3LS, 90.2BT
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 30 knots (55 km/jam)

Prediksi 72 jam, tanggal 05/01/2010 pukul 07:00 WIB :
Posisi : 12.4LS, 87.8BT
Kecepatan
Angin Maksimum: 35 knots (65 km/jam)

DAMPAK TERHADAP CUACA DI INDONESIA :
Depresi tropis ini memberi dampak pada kondisi cuaca di Indonesia berupa gelombang laut dengan tinggi > 2 meter di perairan sebelah Barat Sumatra bagian Tengah hingga Lampung, Selat Jawa bagian Selatan, dan Perairan sebelah Selatan Banten hingga Jawa Barat.

Gelombang laut setinggi > 3 meter terjadi di Perairan sebelah Barat Bengkulu hingga Lampung.

Gelombang Laut dengan tinggi 4 - 5 meter berpotensi terjadi di Samudera Hindia sebelah Barat Mentawai.

[Chacor]

JTWC TCFA:
WTXS21 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4S 96.0E TO 11.1S 91.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 94.7E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 95.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 011955Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN FLANK. A
011429Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS AND BUOY 56507
ALSO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE LLCC WITH 20-KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS, SLP NEAR 1005 MB AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1.5 MB.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS BECOME STRONGER AND
MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE 01/19Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION HAS STRENGTHENED TO +2C FROM NEGATIVE VALUES 24
HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030230Z.//

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0127UTC 2 JANUARY 2010

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nine decimal eight south (9.8S)
longitude ninety five decimal zero east (95.0E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC 03
January.
From 1800 UTC 2 January winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of
centre with rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 02 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 10.4 south 94.5 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre
At 0000 UTC 03 January: Within 130 nautical miles of 10.8 south 93.9 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 02 January 2010.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

WTXS21 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4S 96.0E TO 11.1S 91.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 94.7E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 95.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 94.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 011955Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT SOUTHERN FLANK. A
011429Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS AND BUOY 56507
ALSO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE LLCC WITH 20-KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS, SLP NEAR 1005 MB AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1.5 MB.
ADDITIONALLY, THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS BECOME STRONGER AND
MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE 01/19Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION HAS STRENGTHENED TO +2C FROM NEGATIVE VALUES 24
HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/1580 ... 1fb752.png

[Crostorm]

TPXS10 PGTW 020541

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (SW OF SUMATRA)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 10.7S

D. 93.6E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


KIENZLE

[Crostorm]

02/0230 UTC 8.4S 95.0E T1.5/1.5 98S -- Southeast Indian

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1257 UTC 02/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 94.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [194 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/0000: 10.3S 93.4E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 03/1200: 10.6S 91.9E: 105 [195]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 04/0000: 10.9S 90.0E: 140 [255]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 04/1200: 11.5S 88.4E: 170 [315]: 065 [120]: 978
+60: 05/0000: 12.3S 86.5E: 220 [405]: 075 [140]: 971
+72: 05/1200: 13.1S 84.7E: 265 [490]: 075 [140]: 971
REMARKS:
The low has developed in the last 24 hours with improved deep convection near
the low level circulation centre and evidence of multiple bands. Ascat
02/0314UTC indicates an elongated circulation so still some organising remains
before cyclone intensity is reached. Dvorak based on curved band pattern wrap of
0.3-0.4 persisting giving DT/FT/CI=2.0.

Although moderate easterly shear continues, the system is benefiting from good
upper level outflow, a vigorous NW monsoon flow to the north and strong low
level SE'lies to the south.
The environment remains conducive for further intensification in next 72 hours
especially if the shear reduces as the system moves south of 10S.

A persisting mid-level ridge to the southeast of the LLCC is likely to steer the
system to WSW through the forecast period. The forecast track has the system
passing west of 90E into La Reunion's area of responsibility on Monday 4
January.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1256UTC 2 JANUARY 2010

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal two south (10.2S)
longitude ninety four decimal four east (94.4E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1200 UTC 03
January.
From 0000 UTC 3 January winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of
centre with rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 03 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 10.3 south 93.4 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 03 January: Within 105 nautical miles of 10.6 south 91.9 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 02 January 2010.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 030110
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0109 UTC 03/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 93.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 03/1200: 10.9S 92.8E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 996
+24: 04/0000: 11.2S 91.4E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 991
+36: 04/1200: 11.6S 89.4E: 150 [280]: 060 [110]: 985
+48: 05/0000: 12.0S 87.9E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 976
+60: 05/1200: 12.8S 86.5E: 230 [430]: 080 [150]: 968
+72: 06/0000: 13.3S 85.0E: 280 [520]: 085 [155]: 963
REMARKS:
The low has shown some development in the last 6 hours with deep convection
persisting to the southwest of the centre. Dvorak based on a curved band wrap of
0.4 gives a DT of 2.5, this is in agreement with the MET/PAT, so FT/CI is 2.5.

Although moderate easterly shear appears to be inhibiting development, the
system is benefiting from good upper level outflow, a vigorous NW monsoonal flow
to the north and strong low level SE'ly winds to the south.

The system is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12
hours. However, if the moderate E'ly shear persists then development into a
cyclone may be delayed. The environment is conducive for intensification as the
system moves further southwest with decreasing wind shear.

A mid-level ridge to the southeast of the LLCC is likely to steer the system to
the WSW through the forecast period. The forecast track has the system passing
west of 90E into La Reunion's area of responsibility during Monday 4 January.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 03/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - exposed

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 030230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020221ZJAN2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S 93.2E TO 11.1S 90.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 92.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 93.1E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 92.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATELY SHEARED FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030335Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LLCC IS APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE TO THE
WEST OF THE MOST RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF, AND NEARLY FULLY-
EXPOSED. A 021548Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW FUNNELING
INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, WHICH MAY BE DISRUPTING CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LLCC. IN ADDITION, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ELEVATED TO THE NORTH. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND APRF RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040230Z.//
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