Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs]

Alright so i believe tht the new gfs is running anyone know what it is showing, any precip to go with the cold.

[weatherguy425]

1048 into eastern montana and then appears to slide down the plains through hour 138...

[wxman22]

Another disappointing run...

[weatherguy425]

what do you mean by dissapointing?

[iorange55]

The high looks a little more east, but just a tad. More interesting is that seems to be more moisture when the cold front comes, and just after it. Maybe the models are trying to pick up on a storm developing along the front.

[gofrogs]

Yes and id take 26 and snow over 14 and clear and dry. i have t looked at the run yet so i dont know if that is what it is suggesting or not. but if theres more moisuter its not really a disapointment.

[wxman22]

what do you mean by dissapointing?

It still has the Gulf low suppressed...

[iorange55]

Yes and id take 26 and snow over 14 and clear and dry. i have t looked at the run yet so i dont know if that is what it is suggesting or not. but if theres more moisuter its not really a disapointment.

The actual arctic air as a whole on this run is actually colder, but a little more of it goes east. It's still very cold here though, but yes there is a little more moisture nothing really exciting yet, but hopefully it's a trend. More, more, more moisture please.

[weatherguy425]

Noticed, but one our local forum members mentions a coastal trough in the NW GOM

[srainhoutx]

Look at the 500mb charts. There are several short waves coming in from S CA the GFS just washes out as they head E across Northern Mexico into TX. At this range the GFS will not handle those features well. There is a lot of energy in the Pacific that have not been sampled well other than satellite data. The Upper Low in Plains will need to be watched carefully in the days ahead. This feature may very well head further S than progged on the GFS at this time. We shall see. Not much doubt that some cold air is coming S though.

[Ntxw]

I still think there will be a storm that rides the arctic front\air. From past experiences it just seems that when there is really true cold air, some sort of a storm system helps drags it down. No data to back it though just a hunch I guess =P

[gofrogs]

Its startring to trend and iam liking it itll be intresting to see what the new runs will have later, things could get very interesting for the metreoplex.

[Texas Snowman]

No offense to anyone, but I'm still getting a kick out of this winter "wobble watching" as each new model run comes out.

Bottom line is that however long and severe, cold weather sure does appear to be coming to Oklahoma and Texas this next week. And there appears to be a chance or two for some precipitation as well.

I'd bet that like the Christmas Eve blizzard, it will be hours before the events unfold before we'll know for sure what will be happening.

One thing I know, this is a real winter so far! We've already burned a lot of firewood at my house...and it's just Jan. 2nd!

[srainhoutx]

Look for some surprises via the ECMWF.

[cheezyWXguy]

Look for some surprises via the ECMWF.

lol i hope youre gonna explain it. I cant read/dont have access to the ecmwf

[srainhoutx]

500mb low drops S through day 5 to just NE of OK (much further S and W than the GFS) and begins to shear out. Meanwhile a Baja low shows up on day 7. Feed back issues or the SW bias we see sometimes in the ECMWF? Maybe. Might also be a trend that the Upper Low will infact dig further S in the days ahead as guidance struggles with the pattern. It's going to get interesting IMHO. The cold air is coming in some strength. Still don't believe it is an 83 or 89 cold, but mighty chilly none the less. Moisture with the cold is what may be the fly in the ointment.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[gofrogs]

Uhh OH the gfs is trending much wetter with next thursday as it is dropping .16 qpf on hte mtereoplex. Thats way up since the 18z run had 0. and the 00z run had about .04

[wxman57]

Uhh OH the gfs is trending much wetter with next thursday as it is dropping .16 qpf on hte mtereoplex. Thats way up since the 18z run had 0. and the 00z run had about .04

That looks like pre-frontal precip, not post-frontal in the cold air.

I don't see that anything significant has changed with the recent model runs. Still looks like a couple of days of very cold weather followed by gradual moderation of the airmass. There is nothing to indicate we will see any precip across Texas with the coldest air in place Friday/Saturday. Yes, the models hint at a few shortwaves coming through but the cold air will have blasted so far out into the Gulf and will be so deep that it'll be hard to get enough moisture for precip. Just plotted a few model forecast soundings for next Friday and they're quite dry aloft. Maybe some high clouds, but that's about it. They're also VERY cold for Friday.

What is unusual is the NWS going for a low in the mid 20s in Houston next Friday from this far out. It shows a level of confidence that is not often seen in a long-range forecast. And with the models all agreeing on the deep, cold airmass, I do think we have more confidence that we'll see a hard freeze in Houston next Thu-Sat. Probably a few degrees colder than the NWS is forecasting, though. I think IAH may come close to 20 or drop just below 20 next Friday or Saturday. And Friday's high in Houston may just barely top 32. I haven't even looked at temperatures up north in Dallas yet for this freeze event.

So, this freeze should finish off the two new orange trees I planted 8 months ago. And it may kill my 15 year-old orange tree. It's way too big to cover. But no snow for us in Texas is likely with THIS event.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Chris for chiming in. We look forward to hearing more from you as this unfolds. Not 1989, but too damn cold for me!!

[cycloneye]

Thanks Chris for chiming in. We look forward to hearing more from you as this unfolds. Not 1989, but too damn cold for me!!

David,for those who may not know like me,what happened that year?