Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the input wxman57. My Haas Avocado that I started from a seed that is now 7 feet tall is showing stress from the December 4-5 freeze. Our Pigmy Date Palm is also stressed as well. ~Sigh~

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Chris for chiming in. We look forward to hearing more from you as this unfolds. Not 1989, but too damn cold for me!!

David,for those who may not know like me,what happened that year?

Luis, you don't want to know. 7 degrees at IAH IIRC correctly with frozen pipes and fire hydrants across Houston on Christmas Eve and Day. It wasn't pretty. Made for a tough time fighting the many fires that occurred across the Metro. I almost got frost bite figting two major fires.

[txagwxman]

I got Tomball (Hooks < 20F), IAH is a concrete jungle now, 21-22F. Last time IAH was < 20F was 1996.
The real question is will we get freezing drizzle Thu afternoon.

1989 cold shot was brutal, -4F Waco, 2F College Station and 7F IAH. We left our water running all night, so our pipes didn't freeze, but there was no water pressure for days after, plus we got 1" of snow.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS rolling now, already shows the high 4 millibars stronger than the 0z run as well as a little further west at 6 pm Tuesday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084l.gif

Edit update: and at 6 a.m. Wednesday, the high is still 4 millibars stronger (now 1052mb) and is drilling its way down the leeside of the Rockies. Classic textbook trajectory straight into Texas.

[gboudx]

Without precip, all this will do is make the utitlity companies happy.

[srainhoutx]

Not to get any hopes up, but this pattern does not look like it will relax anytime soon. Those looking for a significant snow events across most of TX at some point during this pattern may not be disappointed.

[Snowman67]

12z GFS rolling now, already shows the high 4 millibars stronger than the 0z run as well as a little further west at 6 pm Tuesday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084l.gif

Edit update: and at 6 a.m. Wednesday, the high is still 4 millibars stronger (now 1052mb) and is drilling its way down the leeside of the Rockies. Classic textbook trajectory straight into Texas.

looks like at noon on wed it is a 1055mb on the new gfs run

[Portastorm]

Exactly!

Jinkies ... I don't know how I missed this but by 114 hours on the 12z GFS run, the surface high IS 1055mb. I was looking at the 850mb level. The 0z run had a 1049mb high by this time ... so clearly the high is now stronger on the 12z run.

[srainhoutx]

Take a peek on the 500mb map at hour 138 near S CA. Hmmm...

[Portastorm]

Take a peek on the 500mb map at hour 138 near S CA. Hmmm...

Oh ... niiiiice! Upper level energy and the flow is from the west coming into Texas ... oh, I like that!

[iorange55]

The 12z run certainly looks great, and again it shows more moisture for the Dallas area just after the initial surge of cold air. I know the threat of a significant storm for mid-to to late next week is not likely, but I wouldn't rule out a small accumulation for North Texas. Of course the Temps will have to cool fast enough before the precip ends, but we'll see.


12z looks colder as well.

[srainhoutx]

Take a peek on the 500mb map at hour 138 near S CA. Hmmm...

Oh ... niiiiice! Upper level energy and the flow is from the west coming into Texas ... oh, I like that!

It's been showing up on the ECMWF for a couple of days. This feature will need to be watched as it may change the track of the potent Upper Low in the Plains as we get a bit closer to the event.

[Portastorm]

The 12z run certainly looks great, and again it shows more moisture for the Dallas area just after the initial surge of cold air. I know the threat of a significant storm for mid-to to late next week is not likely, but I wouldn't rule out a small accumulation for North Texas. Of course the Temps will have to cool fast enough before the precip ends, but we'll see.


12z looks colder as well.

Yep, iorange55, the GFS 12z run is definitely colder for Texas than its previous runs. Agree with you about the model showing more moisture ... looks isentropic in nature too.

[Portastorm]

Take a peek on the 500mb map at hour 138 near S CA. Hmmm...

Oh ... niiiiice! Upper level energy and the flow is from the west coming into Texas ... oh, I like that!

It's been showing up on the ECMWF for a couple of days. This feature will need to be watched as it may change the track of the potent Upper Low in the Plains as we get a bit closer to the event.

Not only that srainhoutx ... but you know what approaching upper-level energy and shortwaves induce along the coast almost every time ... coastal trough!! Wouldn't that be a cool thing?!

[Ntxw]

Wonder with such cold air what the snow ratio's would be IF it snowed.

[srainhoutx]

Another thing to point out is the main Upper Low has dug much further S and W this run than what the GFS has been showing. Starting to match the GGEM, ECMWF runs from over night. We will likely see further refinement in future runs, so expect some surprises.

[Portastorm]

For those of you who may be wondering what in the world srainhoutx and I are going on about ... check out below these 500mb maps from today's 0z GFS and Euro runs. They depict the weather at 6 pm Thursday. Both models show some upper level energy off the coast of Southern California. The Euro is more pronounced with it than the GFS. The thing to note though is that the upper-level flow is west to east into Texas so whatever energy does develop ... it will move into Texas. This *could* be a precip producer for us within 24-48 hours after Thursday's frontal passage.

THE EURO



THE GFS

[iorange55]

I know it's far off but the GFS is now showing another strong cold front around Day 12-13. Obviously it's too long out to be predicting anything, but it does reinforce the notion that the cold is here to stay for January

[Snowman67]

Wouldn't this be nice if it verified. Cold and Precip.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

[Portastorm]

Digging a little deeper into the 12z GFS run, should it verify ... Austin would have 42 consecutive hours of temperatures at or below freezing. Been a few years at least since we've had that.