Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

The interesting thing is the -AO, -NOA, and +PNA regime is well established in the longer term. We certainly are heading into an "active period".

[Ntxw]

The interesting thing is the -AO, -NOA, and +PNA regime is well established in the longer term. We certainly are heading into an "active period".

If this is what it was like in the 70s, we sure have missed out on a lot since then

[srainhoutx]

The interesting thing is the -AO, -NOA, and +PNA regime is well established in the longer term. We certainly are heading into an "active period".

If this is what it was like in the 70s, we sure have missed out on a lot since then

You think you've waited a long time. I have wondered if I would ever live to see a repeat of 1973 again. May just get the chance.

[gofrogs]

Actually guys iam starting to like our chances of at least seeing some wintry weather here in the dfw area. The models are treniding colder and wetter which iss exactly what we want.What are the other modles saying besidese the gfs.

[srainhoutx]

I'll repost an e-mail from Jeff hot off the press...

Significant cold air outbreak expected next week.

Cold surface high will shift eastward tonight allowing weak return flow to become established and the formation of a coastal surface trough. Latest guidance shows this trough developing more southward with rain chances reduced over the land areas of SE TX. Clouds will increase tonight into Sunday and light rain/fog may result in the isentropic regime along the coast late Sunday.

Next strong cold front will cross the area late Sunday keeping below normal temperatures in place for the first part of the week. Coastal surface trough is forced again off the lower TX coast resulting in cloudy and soggy conditions Mon PM -Wed PM. Not sure there will be a lot of measurable rain as compared to drizzle and cloudy conditions. This will hold temperatures well below normal for next week before the bottom falls out late next week.

Arctic Air Outbreak:

Major upper air pattern amplification will be underway early this week as strong ridge builds along the US west coast allowing a massive downstream trough to carve out over the central US. Models have been very consistent with the formation of a tremendous 1050mb arctic high over NW Canada during this amplification with bitter cold air becoming entrained in the flow and breaking loose and heading southward. GFS shows a 1048mb high entering the US via N Montana which is an excellent entry point for a rapid and intense cold air plunge straight down the front range. Will introduce the very cold air mass Wed PM with the arctic boundary blasting through the entire Gulf of Mexico. 850mb temps. progged to fall well below 0C suggest frigid weather Thurs-Sun. Will undercut GFS guidance by at least 5-8 degrees and may need to go 10 degrees colder for Friday. Freezing temperatures will onset Thursday PM...if not sooner...with hard freezes likely Friday AM and even colder Sat AM. Highs on Friday even under sunny skies may only reach 35 degrees in Houston with temperatures up north staying at or below freezing. Will go as low at 20 at IAH for Saturday morning and this may be too warm with upper 10's across the northern 1/2 of SE TX. Cold air plunge looks to affect the entire state with sub-freezing and potentially hard freeze into the S TX citrus belt. Given expected intensity of this air mass and long duration of sub-freezing temperatures expected significant damage to tropical vegetation and citrus is likely even when protected. This event bears close watch as it could be some of the coldest air to affect TX in many years. Hopefully the sub-tropical jet can provide a few clouds to help mitigate the slide and give many of our yards a fighting chance after years of mild winters and extensive population of tropical plants into this region.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

All Aboard!!!!




It looks like the landscapping industry in Texas will get very busy come spring time.

I wonder if the Old Timers from NWS Brownsville are knocking down the door at their old office to write this afternoon's AFD?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi thinks teens in Houston. That means 20-25 in the Corpus area. 25-32 in the RGV. Probably teens in Austin and San Antonio and in the higher elevations maybe around 10 to 15 would be a valid guess.

[srainhoutx]

Look for a W trend via the 12Z ECMWF.

[Portastorm]

Look for a W trend via the 12Z ECMWF.

Indeed ... the main upper level energy is on the border of Kansas-Nebraska as compared to the Ohio Valley in the 0z Euro run. That's a lot farther west!

[txagwxman]

ECMWF another reinforcing piece next Saturday, colder next weekend SE TX...hmm, if we had moisture.
All of these newbies that planted palm trees in Houston are in for a rude awakening.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF another reinforcing piece next Saturday, colder next weekend SE TX...hmm, if we had moisture.

Saw that as well. Now if we can just get that Baja shortwave to tap some moisture.

[gofrogs]

So since it trended west what does that mean for our chances of precip.

[cycloneye]

Here is the mentioned 12z EURO run.

12z ECMWF

[gofrogs]

Like how cold we talking any precip.

[Ntxw]

Like how cold we talking any precip.

The trends of snow, if not a significant snow event(s), is looking better and better with each run. Cold looks to be good to go.

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville thoughts this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
COAST CAUSING CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TO NORMAL VALUES. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE
COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP
WATER OF .51 AND A K-INDEX OF -38. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY CAUSING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF RAIN IN ITS WAKE. AN
OVERRUNNING TYPE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE SETUP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS INDICATED A 1056 HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA BY WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

[gofrogs]

Yeha so iam still thinking that we might see swomething after all lets see what the afternoon afd's say as this is lierally changing rapidly precip wise. because as i said/predicted yesterday the gfs looses a storm only to bring it back on later and this is what the gfs did exactyly and the precip is just going to trend more and more back to whati th ahd earlier.

[txagwxman]

12z ukmet looks colder.

[srainhoutx]

Consensus is rather strong at this range to not ignore. Hopefully Monday we will begin to 'see' this air mass and make some fine tuning. A bit concerned that some more snow cover will be laid down to our N with the Upper Trough and attending front on Sunday/Monday. Noticed the WFO's in KS, OK, and MO are suggesting some light QPF with some snowfall with that feature.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get a gut feeling this cold air mass is going to end up being destructive agriculturally especially in the deep south. It's rare seeing nearly every model at such consensus about anything. Perhaps except heat here in Tx during the summer lol. I'm going to stick to my belief that someone somewhere will get a big storm with such shifts in air masses.