Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Dean4Storms]

Uhh OH the gfs is trending much wetter with next thursday as it is dropping .16 qpf on hte mtereoplex. Thats way up since the 18z run had 0. and the 00z run had about .04

That looks like pre-frontal precip, not post-frontal in the cold air.

I don't see that anything significant has changed with the recent model runs. Still looks like a couple of days of very cold weather followed by gradual moderation of the airmass. There is nothing to indicate we will see any precip across Texas with the coldest air in place Friday/Saturday. Yes, the models hint at a few shortwaves coming through but the cold air will have blasted so far out into the Gulf and will be so deep that it'll be hard to get enough moisture for precip. Just plotted a few model forecast soundings for next Friday and they're quite dry aloft. Maybe some high clouds, but that's about it. They're also VERY cold for Friday.

What is unusual is the NWS going for a low in the mid 20s in Houston next Friday from this far out. It shows a level of confidence that is not often seen in a long-range forecast. And with the models all agreeing on the deep, cold airmass, I do think we have more confidence that we'll see a hard freeze in Houston next Thu-Sat. Probably a few degrees colder than the NWS is forecasting, though. I think IAH may come close to 20 or drop just below 20 next Friday or Saturday. And Friday's high in Houston may just barely top 32. I haven't even looked at temperatures up north in Dallas yet for this freeze event.

So, this freeze should finish off the two new orange trees I planted 8 months ago. And it may kill my 15 year-old orange tree. It's way too big to cover. But no snow for us in Texas is likely with THIS event.

Get you some of those construction type portable spotlights from Home Depot and put under them, it works great on my Lemon and Orange Tree's, the heat they produce is just enough to save them usually.

[southerngale]

Or use Christmas lights.

[jasons2k]

Getting concerned about this one. I just took some pics of the damage from the last freeze. I'll post them later on.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:

Consensus is rather strong at this range to not ignore. Hopefully Monday we will begin to 'see' this air mass and make some fine tuning. A bit concerned that some more snow cover will be laid down to our N with the Upper Trough and attending front on Sunday/Monday. Noticed the WFO's in KS, OK, and MO are suggesting some light QPF with some snowfall with that feature.

I have to add on here. As Ntx said we are looking at a potentially destructive cold snap for agriculture here in TX with the apparent prolonged below freezing temps in many areas of the state. If the trend we are seeing holds the week after next could potentially be even as destructive or worse if the la-la land snowfall depicted happens over even the Southern areas of deep S TX as well as the continued extreme cold(for S/SE TX). As Steve says, if the snow cover to our N is added to, even the temps currently being depicted could be a little on the high side. On our side, if there is a good one with this, is the fact that the cold coming in isn't one of our classic shallow cold snaps but rather a deep all layer one which tends to be dryer. Yes, as a snow starved Texan I would love a ton of snow, until I had to deal with it past my doorstep, but...then the reality of the situation sets in. JMHO.

[wxgirl69]

When will this air actually start coming down in the us.. I know for South Texas`we are looking at Thursday?

[vbhoutex]

When will this air actually start coming down in the us.. I know for South Texas`we are looking at Thursday?

That would depend on where you are talking about. We have friends in Wisconsin who woke up to -2 this am as well as some of our MN members who have been below zero the last few days. The main push that has been being discussed is already heading South down the front range of the Rockies. In actuality it will start trending down in TX on Sun./Mon. with the major push as you said on Weds./Thurs.

[Ntxw]

I think with such a lead on the cold, now should be a good time to plan on how to save\protect plants pipes etc. Even if this doesn't materialize the pattern is showing more potential eventually. Preparation is everything

[jasons2k]

Some pics of the damage from the last freeze:

Florida Gardenia:



Majesty Palms:





Majesty Palm and Hawaiian Ti:

[Ntxw]

Latest snippet out of FW AFD.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2010

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE UPCOMING ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY MID-LATE WEEK. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GRAB A CHUNK OF
SOME VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR VORTEX NEAR 75N AND
120W AND SEND IT SOUTHWARD. BY MIDWEEK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY TO GREATER
THAN 1050 MB AS IT MOVES INTO MONTANA. LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW 0 NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

THERE ARE A COUPLE SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES IN ALL THE MODEL
FORECASTS. THE FIRST IS FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 6-12 HOURS SLOWER
THAN LAST FORECAST...AND HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP TO WED NIGHT LOWS. THE SECOND
AND MORE IMPORTANT TREND IN THE MODELS...IS A FARTHER WESTWARD
PLACEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BY LATE WEEK. THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN ARE EVEN SUGGESTING A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP THROUGH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH...
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING IT STATIONARY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. EVEN THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE WEST THAN THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN. UPPER TROUGH ORIENTATION/MOVEMENT ARE CRITICAL
TO THE SEVERITY/LENGTH OF OUTBREAKS...AND THIS PATTERN NOW GIVES
THE ARCTIC AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MORE TIME TO SETTLE THIS FAR
SOUTH. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA MAY EXPERIENCE 2-3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW FREEZING DESPITE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD BE IN THE TEENS JUST
ABOUT AREA WIDE THU-FRI-SAT NIGHTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WOULD
BE SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER SINCE EARLY FEB OF 1996 WHEN 4-6
DAYS BELOW FREEZING WERE LOGGED ACROSS THE AREA.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD GET MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PRECIP.
MODELS SHOWING QPF GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONT...AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS WED NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE BECOMES VERY PROBLEMATIC...SINCE ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LACK OF SATURATION IN THE -10C AND
COLDER LAYERS...A NECESSARY PREREQUISITE FOR SNOW/SLEET. IN
ADDITION COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY FIERCE THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVEL AND MOISTURE BEARING LAYERS...WHICH IMPLIES
SUBSIDENCE..AND THUS LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITY AT BEST. THE LIGHT
QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...OR SNOW FLURRIES/SLEET IF ICE NUCLEI CAN BECOME
AVAILABLE. IN ANY CASE...CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS LOW...AND WILL NOT MENTION IN WORDED FORECAST JUST YET.

[wxgirl69]

I have sago palms.. I hear they can deal with certain cold temps.. I just can't remember what those temps are..

[wxgirl69]

When will this air actually start coming down in the us.. I know for South Texas`we are looking at Thursday?

That would depend on where you are talking about. We have friends in Wisconsin who woke up to -2 this am as well as some of our MN members who have been below zero the last few days. The main push that has been being discussed is already heading South down the front range of the Rockies. In actuality it will start trending down in TX on Sun./Mon. with the major push as you said on Weds./Thurs.

OK.. So basically it's a done deal that the cold air is coming.. Just how cold, is the million dollar question..

[richtrav]

One bright spot is that with all this cold the citrus should be reasonably dormant. The same should hold true with eucalyptus or other subtropicals that rely on cool weather rather than daylength to shut down. With tropicals or tender palms forget it, they don't know what dormancy is; in fact, many tropicals which took a little frost damage down here in S Texas a month ago are starting to bud out again.

I've noticed many people in Houston and Austin have been planting material slightly too tender for their zone. Many times the only people smart enough to protect their plants in such events are the ones who pay attention to the weather or plant forums. A lot of people have moved to Texas after the '80s and often only have the past 5-10 winters to use as a frame of reference. Even a repeat of 1996 would be enough to cause considerable damage

For the poster above, unless you have an emperor sago it should be good to brief drops to the low 20s with minor leaf damage; anything colder or more extended can cause enough leaf damage that it's better to just remove them at the end of winter and let them reflush. I wouldn't cut them unless they start turning brown. If you want you can try and wrap them in a blanket or insulation if it's gonna be horrible. 1983 was cold enough to freeze some sagos to the ground in San Antonio but I don't think we're looking at anything like that right now

And yup, how cold it's gonna get is more like the BILLION dollar question

[attallaman]

I have sago palms.. I hear they can deal with certain cold temps.. I just can't remember what those temps are..

I've had sagos survive down to the teens but if it's forecasted to get that low I cover mine up. I have one large one at the end of the house which is over 30 years old.

[srainhoutx]

One bright spot is that with all this cold the citrus should be reasonably dormant. The same should hold true with eucalyptus or other subtropicals that rely on cool weather rather than daylength to shut down. With tropicals or tender palms forget it, they don't know what dormancy is; in fact, many tropicals which took a little frost damage down here in S Texas a month ago are starting to bud out again.

I've noticed many people in Houston and Austin have been planting material slightly too tender for their zone. Many times the only people smart enough to protect their plants in such events are the ones who pay attention to the weather or plant forums. A lot of people have moved to Texas after the '80s and often only have the past 5-10 winters to use as a frame of reference. Even a repeat of 1996 would be enough to cause considerable damage

For the poster above, unless you have an emperor sago it should be good to brief drops to the low 20s with minor leaf damage; anything colder or more extended can cause enough leaf damage that it's better to just remove them at the end of winter and let them reflush. I wouldn't cut them unless they start turning brown. If you want you can try and wrap them in a blanket or insulation if it's gonna be horrible. 1983 was cold enough to freeze some sagos to the ground in San Antonio but I don't think we're looking at anything like that right now
And yup, how cold it's gonna get is more like the BILLION dollar question

Same thing happened here in SE TX in 83. I agree that the air mass doesn't look like an 83 event, but with that said I am concerned about a long duration of below freezing temps for many hours. We shall see. Another point I'll make is there is some concern that I have that the Upper Low will continue to dig further S than guidance is suggesting right now. Should that occur we will have other issues to be concerned with, but that is pure speculation at this point.

[wxman22]

Just Posted this on another forum:

The problem with the frozen precipitation is NOT that the models don't develop a gulf low but that the gulf low develops at the same time the cold front pushes through taking all the moisture offshore and to the east as the cold air arrives.So By the time the air is cold enough to support anything frozen all the moisture is gone...

What we need is either a (A)stronger gulf Low to bring some moisture on the backside as the cold air arrives.(B) gulf low to develop AFTER the cold air arrives, or (C) An active STJ to bring a disturbance/shortwave from the west.

Like what many others have said cold air without precip is cold air wasted IMO

[iorange55]

i see Accuweather is thinking the low might track right through north Texas next week

[jinftl]

Such a pattern for you all in Texas is like no-alcohol beer...why bother? What you want is to be near the jet stream and storm track...

Just Posted this on another forum:

The problem with the frozen precipitation is NOT that the models don't develop a gulf low but that the gulf low develops at the same time the cold front pushes through taking all the moisture offshore and to the east as the cold air arrives.So By the time the air is cold enough to support anything frozen all the moisture is gone...

What we need is either a (A)stronger gulf Low to bring some moisture on the backside as the cold air arrives.(B) gulf low to develop AFTER the cold air arrives, or (C) An active STJ to bring a disturbance/shortwave from the west.

Like what many others have said cold air without precip is cold air wasted IMO

[cheezyWXguy]

Why has no one mentioned the 18z gfs (or i guess i havent seen it...)? At least for the NTX area it shows at least some post frontal precip, although it is pretty light. Nonetheless, it looks like an improvement. Who knows, maybe Ill have a few more days added to my winter break haha

[iorange55]

Why has no one mentioned the 18z gfs (or i guess i havent seen it...)? At least for the NTX area it shows at least some post frontal precip, although it is pretty light. Nonetheless, it looks like an improvement. Who knows, maybe Ill have a few more days added to my winter break haha

I didn't mention it because it's so close to the 12z run which is a good thing, I guess. Besides since all the pro mets have mentioned only trust the 00z and 12z thats all I really, really focus on.

[Ntxw]

Why has no one mentioned the 18z gfs (or i guess i havent seen it...)? At least for the NTX area it shows at least some post frontal precip, although it is pretty light. Nonetheless, it looks like an improvement. Who knows, maybe Ill have a few more days added to my winter break haha

Nothing too significant has changed in the models. Other than that we are waiting for the almighty 0z lol it's 12z and 0z imo that's most important.