Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs]

Yeah but trust me we have a shot wintry precip here in north texas

[HockeyTx82]

Wow, this far out and they are calling it. Looks the the highs!!!!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/

[vbhoutex]

When will this air actually start coming down in the us.. I know for South Texas`we are looking at Thursday?

That would depend on where you are talking about. We have friends in Wisconsin who woke up to -2 this am as well as some of our MN members who have been below zero the last few days. The main push that has been being discussed is already heading South down the front range of the Rockies. In actuality it will start trending down in TX on Sun./Mon. with the major push as you said on Weds./Thurs.

OK.. So basically it's a done deal that the cold air is coming.. Just how cold, is the million dollar question..

Yep!! I saw a temp map just a little while ago on the news and the temps in the Dakotas, Montana and Minnesota in the -20f-35f range this evening!!! When it is that cold S of the Canadian border and the pattern isn't taking the weather East we get VERY(for us) cold here in TX.

[gofrogs]

We iin the metereoplex want the front to spped up in my opinion.

[cheezyWXguy]

We iin the metereoplex want the front to spped up in my opinion.

Do we? The afd suggests that slower would mean more moisture return. The freezing temps are just about guaranteed, but if theres enough moisture return, we be able to get some more post frontal precipitation.

[gofrogs]

I meant slower thats my bad haha i want it to snow so bad from this and i think it will.

[Kludge]

Uhh OH the gfs is trending much wetter with next thursday as it is dropping .16 qpf on hte mtereoplex. Thats way up since the 18z run had 0. and the 00z run had about .04

That looks like pre-frontal precip, not post-frontal in the cold air.

I don't see that anything significant has changed with the recent model runs. Still looks like a couple of days of very cold weather followed by gradual moderation of the airmass. There is nothing to indicate we will see any precip across Texas with the coldest air in place Friday/Saturday. Yes, the models hint at a few shortwaves coming through but the cold air will have blasted so far out into the Gulf and will be so deep that it'll be hard to get enough moisture for precip. Just plotted a few model forecast soundings for next Friday and they're quite dry aloft. Maybe some high clouds, but that's about it. They're also VERY cold for Friday.

What is unusual is the NWS going for a low in the mid 20s in Houston next Friday from this far out. It shows a level of confidence that is not often seen in a long-range forecast. And with the models all agreeing on the deep, cold airmass, I do think we have more confidence that we'll see a hard freeze in Houston next Thu-Sat. Probably a few degrees colder than the NWS is forecasting, though. I think IAH may come close to 20 or drop just below 20 next Friday or Saturday. And Friday's high in Houston may just barely top 32. I haven't even looked at temperatures up north in Dallas yet for this freeze event.

So, this freeze should finish off the two new orange trees I planted 8 months ago. And it may kill my 15 year-old orange tree. It's way too big to cover. But no snow for us in Texas is likely with THIS event.

Using my private, internal-use-only citrus sliderule, I just plotted the temperature profile for your trees out to 168 hours and do not see zero Celsius penetrating enough to cause any stress. I've looked at all the tree-hugging models, and just don't see where you might be getting your facts. January will be a very rough month for se texas oranges... but I'm just not seeing any problems with THIS system....

[Ntxw]

I meant slower thats my bad haha i want it to snow so bad from this and i think it will.

as Srainhoutx said keep an eye out for the upper low and shortwave in the baja\California. For north Texas if there is going to be a storm it will be from that and as for south Texas the coastal trough

[wxgirl69]

i see Accuweather is thinking the low might track right through north Texas next week

What does this mean????

[iorange55]

i see Accuweather is thinking the low might track right through north Texas next week

What does this mean????

Well the further south the low tracks there is more of a chance for us to get snowfall. That map has the low coming right down passing right over us.

[wxgirl69]

i see Accuweather is thinking the low might track right through north Texas next week

What does this mean????

Well the further south the low tracks there is more of a chance for us to get snowfall. That map has the low coming right down passing right over us.

Groovy!!! I live on the SE side of Houston. Looks like that low needs to move a little more South.....

[southerngale]

Hey Portastorm, you ever watch CBS KEYE out of Austin? Um, not sure what they're thinking... totally out to lunch it seems.




http://weareaustin.com/content/myweather#7day

[rkbjunior]

Hey Portastorm, you ever watch CBS KEYE out of Austin? Um, not sure what they're thinking... totally out to lunch it seems.




http://weareaustin.com/content/myweather#7day

Exactly why I don't watch those guys. I stick with NBC KXAN as my first option unless they have the B-team working during the week then I switch to ABC KVUE.

KVUE's 7 day isn't much better than KEYE's. http://www.kvue.com/weather/7day

KXAN appears to be catching on. http://www.kxan.com/subindex/weather/7_day_forecast

[Portastorm]

southerngale, no ... I do not watch KEYE for weather. In fact, I do not watch anyone on Austin TV for weather. This may sound a bit harsh but I believe that there are probably a dozen people or more on S2K here who could do a better job and know more about meteorology than the majority of Austin OCMs (especially weekend OCMs). KXAN has a good one during the week in Jim Spencer and KVUE's Mark Murray is also good. Now, KEYE does have a friend of mine as their regular weekday OCM in Troy Kimmel. And Troy is considered the "dean" of Austin TV weathercasters and I have high respect for his work. But he doesn't work weekends, sadly. I think if he knew this forecast was out from his team, he would be alarmed.

[Ntxw]

southerngale, no ... I do not watch KEYE for weather. In fact, I do not watch anyone on Austin TV for weather. This may sound a bit harsh but I believe that there are probably a dozen people or more on S2K here who could do a better job and know more about meteorology than the majority of Austin OCMs (especially weekend OCMs). KXAN has a good one during the week in Jim Spencer and KVUE's Mark Murray is also good. Now, KEYE does have a friend of mine as their regular weekday OCM in Troy Kimmel. And Troy is considered the "dean" of Austin TV weathercasters and I have high respect for his work. But he doesn't work weekends, sadly. I think if he knew this forecast was out from his team, he would be alarmed.

Generally I watch the chief meteorologists as they seem to know about models and weather patterns\terms that goes on. Sometimes it makes me laugh (not to be mean) at the side weather personalities. Some of the things they say makes no sense. Seems they are there to look good and pass on information told to them.

[srainhoutx]

A few changes already on the 00Z NAM. PNA Ridge looks a bit W and shortwave appears a bit W as well at hour 60. Keep an eye tonight where the Upper Air feature enter the CONUS. Also appears the S/W may dig further S.

[double D]

I'm suprised how conservative the Amarillo NWS is on temps. for next week. They only have highs in the low 30's for Thursday and upper 30's for Friday. Doesn't seem to impressive for such a cold airmass, especially for the Amarillo area.

[txagwxman]

18z 2m temps are insane for this Friday/Saturday/Sunday in SE TX. All those palm trees are done for.

[txagwxman]

I'm suprised how conservative the Amarillo NWS is on temps. for next week. They only have highs in the low 30's for Thursday and upper 30's for Friday. Doesn't seem to impressive for such a cold airmass, especially for the Amarillo area.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 0F to 4F in Dalhart Thursday. These guys have no clue.

[txagwxman]

southerngale, no ... I do not watch KEYE for weather. In fact, I do not watch anyone on Austin TV for weather. This may sound a bit harsh but I believe that there are probably a dozen people or more on S2K here who could do a better job and know more about meteorology than the majority of Austin OCMs (especially weekend OCMs). KXAN has a good one during the week in Jim Spencer and KVUE's Mark Murray is also good. Now, KEYE does have a friend of mine as their regular weekday OCM in Troy Kimmel. And Troy is considered the "dean" of Austin TV weathercasters and I have high respect for his work. But he doesn't work weekends, sadly. I think if he knew this forecast was out from his team, he would be alarmed.

Generally I watch the chief meteorologists as they seem to know about models and weather patterns\terms that goes on. Sometimes it makes me laugh (not to be mean) at the side weather personalities. Some of the things they say makes no sense. Seems they are there to look good and pass on information told to them.

I would say that Austin will have trouble reaching 32F Friday, and they will drop through the 30s on Thursday if this holds.