Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[rhoby13]

I've noticed time after time that the local stations in Austin are very unreliable. I stick with Bob Rose and Jim Spencer if I vary from this site.

[hurrican19]

Hey Portastorm, you ever watch CBS KEYE out of Austin? Um, not sure what they're thinking... totally out to lunch it seems.




http://weareaustin.com/content/myweather#7day

KEYE is the KBTV of Austin in all aspects of News/Weather/Sports..

[ludosc]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The 0z still says all systems go. I have to say since I've been observing the GFS and Arctic outbreaks that have been aimed for Texas, it has been surprisingly consistent for the past three days now from run to run. Usually it hypes, hpyes and then drops it or shunts it east.

[Ntxw]

The 0z still says all systems go. I have to say since I've been observing the GFS and Arctic outbreaks that have been aimed for Texas, it has been surprisingly consistent for the past three days now from run to run. Usually it hypes, hpyes and then drops it or shunts it east.

What's scary, it's not only the GFS! *Gasp* Most of the models agree if not all.

[cheezyWXguy]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.

[ludosc]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.

yeah i only usually use accuweather for their 15 day forcast to see what things might be like over the next 2 weeks...my go to is wunderground...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.

The 10 to 15 day numbers are raw GFS data that really doesn't have any human input. They can really get silly at times . I've seen them predict huge temp spikes in the summer and drops in the winter from what the norms or what the they forecasted just into a seven day range. Even the five to seven day numbers on Accuwether, Weather.com, etc should be taken with a grain of salt.

[cheezyWXguy]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.

yeah i only usually use accuweather for their 15 day forcast to see what things might be like over the next 2 weeks...my go to is wunderground...

I can understand using the 15 day for trends, but even still it tends to swing wildly each time it is updated so once again, not reliable. Fun to look at though. And yeah wunderground is good cuz its the exact forecast of noaa/nws. I use it the most often.

Btw, 0z GFS rolling out. looks like about the same, if not a very small bit more post frontal precip, but still pretty light. From hour 108 to 216, DFW is below freezing, with the exception of hour 162, but with such a cold airmass this probably wouldnt verify if things played out.
Also, i dont know if this was in previous runs, but in the 0z theres a pretty decent low that moves into west texas from new mexico, but as the cold front moves in, it is shunted southward and dissipates. I dont know how plausible this is, so any expert opinions would be great.

[srainhoutx]

The trends look good so far. PNA Ridge is stout. The Upper Low continues to dig further S with each run. The ensembles are in agreement. The emperical models are onboard. The finer details will be worked out in the days ahead. The one thing I continue to notice is the continued W entrance into the CONUS of the Upper Low. Our East Coast neighbors may see an inland runner if this trend continues. Should we see a deeper trough and some phasing with the Southern Stream, we may have some issues. All in all at 5 days out things are looking more likely we will infact have some mighty chilly untapped Polar Air and more snow cover to our N. The clipper tonight in KS, OK and MO is laying down some fresh snow and over performing as well. Colorado Springs had a thundersnow event this afternoon with the Upper Low that will bring our front in on Sunday. A lot of dynamics out there and still seeing some hints of some potential shortwave activity from the Pacific.

[Ntxw]

The trends look good so far. PNA Ridge is stout. The Upper Low continues to dig further S with each run. The ensembles are in agreement. The emperical models are onboard. The finer details will be worked out in the days ahead. The one thing I continue to notice is the continued W entrance into the CONUS of the Upper Low. Our East Coast neighbors may see an inland runner if this trend continues. Should we see a deeper trough and some phasing with the Southern Stream, we may have some issues. All in all at 5 days out things are looking more likely we will infact have some mighty chilly untapped Polar Air and more snow cover to our N. The clipper tonight in KS, OK and MO is laying down some fresh snow and over performing as well. Colorado Springs had a thundersnow event this afternoon with the Upper Low that will bring our front in on Sunday. A lot of dynamics out there and still seeing some hints of some potential shortwave activity from the Pacific.

I bet my money the southern plains\deep south will see a major winter weather event before everything is cleared for the deep plunge in temperatures. Should there be additional snow cover, it would wreck havoc on how low the temps can go!

[attallaman]

So how cold are things looking for the DFW area? I live in Arlington, and after looking at multiple forecasts, most are saying the following:

Thursday High: anywhere from 30-40 with a slight chance of winter mix (accuweather says 40, weather.com says 39)

Thursday Night: 15-17 degrees

Friday: 28-42 degrees (accuweather again says 42)

Friday Night: 16-25 degrees

Saturday: 34-50 (accuweather says 50)

is that as cold as it is looking to get, or are they being conservative at this point, especially accuweather...

thanks

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.

How can I pull up the local discussions from the NWS? Go to NWS.com, type in forecast for a specific region, then what? If I wanted to read comments from a NWS office for Biloxi, MS would those comments come out of the NOLA office or the Slidell, LA office?

[iorange55]

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.How can I pull up the local discussions from the NWS? Go to NWS.com, type in forecast for a specific region, then what? If I wanted to read comments from a NWS office for Biloxi, MS would those comments come out of the NOLA office or the Slidell, LA office?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


There is the link. Just type in the city, click on it. the go down the page, and look at the bottom right you'll see a little square box and "forecast discussion" will be one of the links.

[vbhoutex]

We're seeing the same thing in Houston that you are in Austin. I'm sitting watching the weather with my jaw on the floor!! Where do some of these supposed meteorologists get there information? Let's try 5 -10 degrees cooler across the board!!

[attallaman]

Accuweather should be named Inaccuweather. I don't reccomend it. You should probably stick to what you see on wunderground or noaa websites, and ever weather.com isnt too reliable, since it and accuweather are based solely on gfs model data.How can I pull up the local discussions from the NWS? Go to NWS.com, type in forecast for a specific region, then what? If I wanted to read comments from a NWS office for Biloxi, MS would those comments come out of the NOLA office or the Slidell, LA office?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


There is the link. Just type in the city, click on it. the go down the page, and look at the bottom right you'll see a little square box and "forecast discussion" will be one of the links.

Thanks. Another question, what does "AFD" mean? Atmosphere forecast discussion?

[srainhoutx]

Thanks. Another question, what does "AFD" mean? Atmosphere forecast discussion?

Area Forecast Discussion.

[One Eye]

Yes, the Mississippi Gulf Coast counties are covered by NWS Slidell. George and Greene couties are covered by NWS Mobile. I usually go to NWS Mobile website and read both weather discussions. Mornings discussions are usually come out betwwn the hours of 3 and 5 a.m. Afternoon discussions are around 3 or 5 pm.

[southerngale]

18z 2m temps are insane for this Friday/Saturday/Sunday in SE TX. All those palm trees are done for.

Do you (or does anyone else) know if a well matured palm tree has a better shot of survival? I have a huge one in my backyard. I just moved to this house in November '08 so this year is the first really cold weather I've experienced with it.

[jasons2k]

18z 2m temps are insane for this Friday/Saturday/Sunday in SE TX. All those palm trees are done for.

Do you (or does anyone else) know if a well matured palm tree has a better shot of survival? I have a huge one in my backyard. I just moved to this house in November '08 so this year is the first really cold weather I've experienced with it.

Mature palm trees are more hardy than younger ones. But hardiness depends on a number of things, such as the health of the plant, etc.

The main thing that determines hardiness is the species. Some palms are hardy down into the teens or even lower. There are even some ultra-tropicals that get damage at 45F.

[Ptarmigan]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_ptyp.gif

For anyone who is wondering what the abbreviations are.
RA=Rain
SN=Snow
FZRA=Freezing Rain
PL=Ice Pellet/Sleet
MIX=Mix

Looks like we could see sleet than snow. Too early to tell.