Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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cctxhurricanewatcher
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3241 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:18 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
txagwxman wrote:I don't have any tropical plants...more worried about pipes.



Wrap the exterior pipes as best you can with towels and duct tape as I'm sure you know. Interior should be fine as long the teens don't last too long. Thankfully we have an auto freeze protection on the pool that cycles every 5 minutes once water temp gets below 38. A bit worried about the water feature though. May have a sheet of ice off the waterfall and weeping rocks. Arghhh

Image



We dare you to jump in that pool Friday night! :lol:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3242 Postby attallaman » Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:19 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
txagwxman wrote:I don't have any tropical plants...more worried about pipes.



Wrap the exterior pipes as best you can with towels and duct tape as I'm sure you know. Interior should be fine as long the teens don't last too long. Thankfully we have an auto freeze protection on the pool that cycles every 5 minutes once water temp gets below 38. A bit worried about the water feature though. May have a sheet of ice off the waterfall and weeping rocks. Arghhh

Image
Very nice pool.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3243 Postby serenata09 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:07 pm

WFAA Meteorologist Steve McCauley just said that a MacFarland Signature is developing across the US. Could someone explain this term in a concise, easy-to-understand way?
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3244 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:15 pm

serenata09 wrote:WFAA Meteorologist Steve McCauley just said that a MacFarland Signature is developing across the US. Could someone explain this term in a concise, easy-to-understand way?



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm
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#3245 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:19 pm

:uarrow: A lot to read, but it's basically a pattern that allows really cold air to plunge all the way south to the Mexican border. The lower Rio Grand river valley experiences a rare freeze. At the time Marshall J. Mcfarland had written a paper to help foresee freezes that far south before models and satellite data hence the name.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3246 Postby serenata09 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:22 pm

Thank you guys!
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#3247 Postby southerngale » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:24 pm

It looks like the 0z GFS is a lot colder than the 12z was. Maybe someone who is better at reading them than I am can give a better analysis.
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Re:

#3248 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:25 pm

southerngale wrote:It looks like the 0z GFS is a lot colder than the 12z was. Maybe someone who is better at reading them than I am can give a better analysis.


Looks as if parts of s\e Texas won't get above Freezing until possibly well into the weekend. Even longer further north.
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Re:

#3249 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:27 pm

southerngale wrote:It looks like the 0z GFS is a lot colder than the 12z was. Maybe someone who is better at reading them than I am can give a better analysis.




To me it is colder I don't know if it's a lot colder, but I think the main thing is it shows the cold sticking around about a day longer. Which I kind of expected considering how cold the airmass is. The main thing is it shows it staying around longer.
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#3250 Postby gofrogs » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:29 pm

No way what about the precip.
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Re:

#3251 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:30 pm

gofrogs wrote:No way what about the precip.




About the same precip wise still might be some light snow in North Texas, but I'm too not sure either way on that.
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Re: Re:

#3252 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
southerngale wrote:It looks like the 0z GFS is a lot colder than the 12z was. Maybe someone who is better at reading them than I am can give a better analysis.


Looks as if parts of s\e Texas won't get above Freezing until possibly well into the weekend. Even longer further north.


Correct. The 850mb 0 degree temps last through Sunday in SE TX/ SW LA. That would mean a chance of below freezing at the surface for at least 60 hours. ~Sigh~
Last edited by srainhoutx on Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3253 Postby gofrogs » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:32 pm

Anything intresting to note on the long range.
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Re:

#3254 Postby severe » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:35 pm

gofrogs wrote:Anything intresting to note on the long range.

A period of freezing temps for 60 hours is pretty interesting.
But I understand, cold without precip is wasted cold.
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Re:

#3255 Postby iorange55 » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:36 pm

gofrogs wrote:Anything intresting to note on the long range.



It's out to day 11, and not much. Another cold front maybe around day 9 or 10, but not a really strong one. This will certainly change though tomorrow you could ask the same thing and it could be showing a blizzard on day 12
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#3256 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:44 pm

It shows a bit of post frontal precip. I wonder if there is high snow ratios with such cold air, if maybe we could get some snow, surely it would stick lol =P
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3257 Postby richtrav » Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:03 am

Just a quick glance looks like Florida is slightly colder and deep South Texas/Tamaulipas may be a hair warmer, so maybe a hair bit farther east? Especially south of the 30th parallel. At any rate I'm afraid this is the real McCoy and not one of those silly GFS fantasy freezes; the underlying conditions are there, it's just going to be a question of how bad and, down here in deep S TX, whether the clouds will hold (crossing my fingers they will)
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3258 Postby AggieSpirit » Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:04 am

I'm thinking of laying a 40x20 ft tarp down on a perfectly flat area of my lawn and putting a couple of inches of water on top of it -- then seeing if it gets cold enough to freeze solid so my daughter and I can skate on it one morning this week.

Stick and puck time in my back yard -- if only for a day or so......
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3259 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:30 am

richtrav wrote:Just a quick glance looks like Florida is slightly colder and deep South Texas/Tamaulipas may be a hair warmer, so maybe a hair bit farther east? Especially south of the 30th parallel. At any rate I'm afraid this is the real McCoy and not one of those silly GFS fantasy freezes; the underlying conditions are there, it's just going to be a question of how bad and, down here in deep S TX, whether the clouds will hold (crossing my fingers they will)


What amazes me is that this go round it's the GFS that's rather conservative looking compared to the rest of the other global models run per run, yet it's no walk in the park. Usually the GFS is the one going about it's hooplas of crazy weather! I wonder if the switchover to the new gfs has anything to do with it hmm...
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3260 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 04, 2010 4:50 am

I don't double post often, but I wanted to post this here. (also in SE TX thread)

NWS LCH overnight update: Beaumont went from 20% chance sleet on Thursday to 40% chance snow/sleet!

I'm still not holding my breath, but definitely liking the trend.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
326 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010


.DISCUSSION...

AN ARCTIC BLAST APPEARS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE WINTER
OF 1996 AND RECORDS COULD BE THREATENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND
MOST OF TODAY AND TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
40S AREA WIDE THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. TONIGHT LOOKS VERY
CHILLY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 20S. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VERY
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR TONIGHT.


COLD AND QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE IS QUITE A SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A VERY COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE 1054 MB WILL SLIDING
SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THIS PIECE OF ARCTIC WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MAKING ITSELF FELT ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE TIMING
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT AND THE LAGGING PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BECOMES PROBLEMATIC. LOOKS LIKE THE
ARCTIC WILL BE ABLE TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BEFORE LEAVING THE AREA AND CHANGE FROM LIGHT RAIN TO
SLEET TO MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL BE FINE TUNE AS THIS EVENT GETS
CLOSER. THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE EXTREMELY FRIDGED AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND RESIDENTS
NEED TO PREPARE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WITH HIGHS
ONLY BE IN THE 30S FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS VALUES COULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WHICH WOULD JUSTICE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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