Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
lrak
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1770
Age: 58
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#901 Postby lrak » Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:19 pm

Big Easy wrote:
Jag95 wrote:Check this out. See the lake effect snows around the lakes? Looks like the same effect over the Gulf and off the east coast, with light precip paralleling the coast. Tampa maybe?

Image


Mobile AFD:
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES IN THE OFFING
FOR EXXTENDED FORECAST CONTENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPERATURE MINIMA
WEDNESDAY TO APPROAC OR MAKE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTH SANTA ROSA COUNTY
NEAR THE CRESTVIEW AIRPORT (CEW)
. EVERGREEN AIRPORT (GZH) SHOWS A
CHANCE OF REACHING 12. OTHER MINIMA IN MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, FROM
THE INTERIOR TO THE COASTLINE RESPECTIVELY, LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE THE
APPEARANCE OF ATTAINABILITY IN THIS EVENT WEDNESDAY. WE ARE ASSUMING AT THE
MOMENT THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RH WILL PREVAIL, SO ANOTHER 2 OR 3
HARD FREEZE NIGHTS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SPEAKING OF
WHICH, RECORD MINIMA FOR JANUARY IN MOBILE INCLUDE 9, 3, AND 16
DEGREES F ON 20-22 JANUARY 1985, AND 18, 8, AND 15 DEGREES F ON 23-25
JANUARY 1963. THIS EARLY IN THE MONTH IT GOT DOWN TO 14 DEGREES ON
THE 6TH. THE REAL RECORD WAS 12 TO 13 FEBRUARY 1899 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED -1 ON THE 13TH. SOME HAVE ASSERTED THAT COLD LIKE
THIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. 1000-850
THICKNESS ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL REACH 1280 M AND 1260 IN THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. INDEED, WE MAY BREAK SOME RECORDS.


Crestview, FL forecast:
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 6. Calm wind



Looking at that model, it looks like many of the offshore rigs in the GOM will be seeing a bizarre winter storm on their platforms. Crazy!



I hope AntiFreeze is on the check list for the compressors. Can you imagine having to change all the normal tropical temp mechanical fluids for winter ones...WOW.
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wobblehead
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 12:51 pm
Location: Mobile.Al

#902 Postby wobblehead » Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:29 pm

I recall the low of 3F during the 20-22 Jan.1985 event in Mobile. Folks were ice skating on portions of Mobile Bay!
Regarding the forecasted lows for Crestview Florida I have never understood why that vicinity is substantially colder than surrounding areas on the northern Gulf Coast.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#903 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:43 pm

From Birmingham:

AS FOR THE WINTER STORM...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IMPACTING CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY...AND ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO
SERIOUSLY TALK ABOUT TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOWFALL.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE THOSE FROM THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
PLAINS...INDICATING ALL SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS TROY. THE
CRITICAL WARM NOSE ALOFT IS ONLY AROUND 0.5C WITH SURFACE WET BULB
ZERO NEAR FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. THUS
TOOK ALL MENTION OF NON-SNOW PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...A
MOVE THAT I WILL LIKELY NEVER GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE AGAIN ON
THE DAY 5 FORECAST IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.


STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE GULF
LOW THAT WILL ENHANCE OUR CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT IT IS NOW LOOKING
MORE LIKE A "HOW MUCH" FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO AN "IF" FORECAST.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAN ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#904 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:59 pm

Anyone see any chance for wintery precip (possibly snow) for southern Louisiana (especially Southwestern Louisiana to the coast? I'm guessing we'll probably just have cold temps. and no precip. Anyone see anything different?
0 likes   

Cristina
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 62
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:02 pm

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#905 Postby Cristina » Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:32 pm

What about snow in Canton, GA? we're north of Atlanta? Thanks!
0 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#906 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:37 pm

I say it's going to snow (a lot)somewhere in the deep south when all is said and done
this upcoming week. (IMO) :D
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re:

#907 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jan 03, 2010 11:11 pm

wobblehead wrote:I recall the low of 3F during the 20-22 Jan.1985 event in Mobile. Folks were ice skating on portions of Mobile Bay!
Regarding the forecasted lows for Crestview Florida I have never understood why that vicinity is substantially colder than surrounding areas on the northern Gulf Coast.

Because Crestview is above I-10 away from the coast and because the airport, which is the reporting station there, sits in a low area which allows the heavier cold air to settle in and/or get trapped in that area. Most temps in that area will probably be teens and low 20's.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Jag95
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 438
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#908 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:26 am

LaBreeze wrote:Anyone see any chance for wintery precip (possibly snow) for southern Louisiana (especially Southwestern Louisiana to the coast? I'm guessing we'll probably just have cold temps. and no precip. Anyone see anything different


Looking at the latest models, there looks like a 6-12 hour window where there may be some snow somewhere along the northern Gulf coast. Where is anyone's guess. Even the forecasters don't know for sure. One AFD I read said that they were waiting on that system to get over North America (currently over the Pacific) where better samples can be gathered before going out on a limb to forecast snow in the deep south.

There is a 30% of a rain/snow mix for Thursday night just north of Mobile. Just north means only 10 miles or so. Still too early to get excited though...I saw this one time already this year and nothing happened.
Last edited by Jag95 on Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

attallaman

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#909 Postby attallaman » Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:32 am

Jag95 wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:Anyone see any chance for wintery precip (possibly snow) for southern Louisiana (especially Southwestern Louisiana to the coast? I'm guessing we'll probably just have cold temps. and no precip. Anyone see anything different


Looking at the latest models, there looks like a 6-12 hour window where there may be some snow somewhere along the northern Gulf coast. Where is anyone's guess. Even the forecasters don't know for sure. One AFD I read said that they were waiting on that system to get over North America (currently over the Pacific) where better samples can be gathered before going out on a limb to forecast snow in the deep south.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#910 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 04, 2010 12:43 am

With some of those numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated sub-zero temperatures in some areas of Alabama and Georgia!

What would be rare would be snow on the Florida peninsula. There might be a brief window of opportunity for that if it gets cold enough with the low not completely cleared...
0 likes   

User avatar
RNGR
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 153
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:13 pm
Location: Ft. Benning Ga

#911 Postby RNGR » Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:02 am

00z GFS is very dry. starting to look like nothing but flurries for most of the southeast
0 likes   
"It is better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep"

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#912 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:07 am

RNGR wrote:00z GFS is very dry. starting to look like nothing but flurries for most of the southeast


Eh, I think it's too early to give up on this storm. 4 days away, lot of time to change. I'm just glad for once it's actually cold enough, in my view that automatically increases our chances.

I'm expecting messy roads even if it only snows a little, something we haven't had the last several events.

Edit to add: All the 0z models are in, we have a split. Canadian flipped and is now wetter, both it and the brand new Euro have a nice snow event for the southeast. NAM is kind of middle ground(it only goes out to 84 though, which our storm is beyond that), and the GFS is a dry outlier. Too early to call anything a trend.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
TrekkerCC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 263
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 10:19 pm
Location: North Central Texas (Dallas Area)

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#913 Postby TrekkerCC » Mon Jan 04, 2010 5:22 am

This is a long discussion from the NWS Birmingham, AL Office, but it is worth quoting in full since it is very humorous.

NWS Birmingham, AL Office wrote:.DISCUSSION...

BACK WHEN I MOVED TO ALABAMA IN JANUARY OF 1990...I FREQUENTLY
HEARD PEOPLE REFER TO HOW COLD IT GOT AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME A
MONTH EARLIER. AND THE WAY IT WAS DESCRIBED TO ME WAS THAT IT
WASN`T AN ALL-OF-A-SUDDEN ARCTIC BLAST THAT CAME IN. IT WAS MORE
LIKE A GRADUAL CHILL DOWN...A FEW DEGREES A DAY...BEFORE YOU KNEW
IT IT WAS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THAT`S A LOT LIKE HOW
THINGS HAVE BEEN HERE LATELY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE INDEED COLD...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL BE GETTING EVEN COLDER.

THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS
GREENVILLE MS AND MEMPHIS. THAT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. MODELS DO DRY UP THE PRECIP AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HERE IN ALABAMA. I TOYED
WITH THE IDEA OF ADDING SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST
IT BASED ON THE DRYNESS OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...AND MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. HARD FREEZE SHOULD EASILY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...AND AS SOON AS CURRENT HARD FREEZE
WARNING EXPIRES WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TONIGHT
TO A WARNING. BUT AS THE SHAM-WOW GUY WOULD SAY..."BUT WAIT
THERE`S MORE."


AS IF DEALING WITH THE COLD WASN`T BAD ENOUGH WE STILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP ON THURSDAY...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT THE
04/0000Z MODEL RUNS PAINT A LESS CERTAIN FORECAST THAN APPARENTLY
THE PREVIOUS RUNS DID. I DID CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS I DO THINK THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF MOST SPOTS GETTING AT LEAST 0.01 OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. BUT THEN AGAIN... I DON`T FORESEE A LOT OF PLACES
GETTING ANY MORE THAN 0.10 EITHER. SO ITS NOT QUITE TIME TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT A MAJOR SNOWFALL. PLUS...THERE IS AGAIN SOME
QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AND QUITE FRANKLY...I THINK THE MAIN STORY WE NEED TO BE SELLING
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS THAT OF THE COLD (WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DEADLY) RATHER THAN THE SNOW POTENTIAL (WHICH
LOOKS MORE LIKE AN INCONVENIENCE IN COMPARISON). ALL SIGNS POINT
TO SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE OUTLYING AREAS...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE CITIES.
ONCE SOME AREAS GO BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
THEY MAY NOT CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AND IF YOU ORDER NOW (BECAUSE WE CAN`T DO THIS ALL DAY)...WE`LL
INCLUDE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.


Anyway, it looks to be very cold for the south (possibly cold not seen since 1989 or 1996) later this week. Looks like Alabama and other states in the SE might be dealing with some winter weather events as well.
0 likes   
Storm2K Forecast Disclaimer:

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#914 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:20 am

What do the latest model run show?
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#915 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:51 am

Looks like everyone north of I-10 will at least see snow flakes in the SE. Looks like a dusting to 2" for most folks. South of I-10 in MS, AL and FL Panhandle could see a rain/sleet/snow mix changing to snow or flurries a few hours before ending late Thurs and Thurs. Nite.
0 likes   

User avatar
RNGR
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 153
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:13 pm
Location: Ft. Benning Ga

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#916 Postby RNGR » Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:51 am

Stormcenter wrote:What do the latest model run show?


very dry. most of the southeast gets about an inch of snow or less
0 likes   
"It is better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep"

attallaman

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#917 Postby attallaman » Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:45 am

RNGR wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:What do the latest model run show?


very dry. most of the southeast gets about an inch of snow or less
I'd settle for an inch, an inch would make for some nice pics. An inch is good if it sticks and stays around for about a day.
0 likes   

User avatar
RNGR
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 153
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 1:13 pm
Location: Ft. Benning Ga

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#918 Postby RNGR » Mon Jan 04, 2010 11:07 am

well the new GFS is about the wettest yet. total rain across the SE .10-.50 inches. thats 1.4 to 7 inches of snow 8-)

edit to add: also the 12z NAM is trending upwards in terms of moisture
0 likes   
"It is better to live one day as a lion than a hundred years as a sheep"

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#919 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Jan 04, 2010 11:22 am

Forecast for Pensacola Area:


Thursday: Cloudy, slight chance of rain in the morning...then chance of light sleet in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Breezy, cloudy with a chance of snow. 30% chance of snow.


woohoo I"ll take any chance I can get. Would be nice to go with this frigid cold. brrrrrrr
0 likes   

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#920 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Jan 04, 2010 11:25 am

Hey guys what about us here in south LA? All the talk is about record cold and possible precip for SE TX and the southeast AL,FL,MS. Have not seen or heard much of any discussions for us. Care to shed some light on things over here? Thanks.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests