Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

well the new GFS is about the wettest yet. total rain across the SE .10-.50 inches. thats 1.4 to 7 inches of snow

edit to add: also the 12z NAM is trending upwards in terms of moisture

I knew last night was probably a fluke. It was only the GFS that was dry and there are more models than that...



Thursday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.

Thursday Night...Snow likely. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 60 percent. Lowest wind chill readings 2 below to 11 above zero after midnight.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s. Wind chill readings 2 below to 19 above zero.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows around 8. Wind chill readings 7 below to 13 above zero.

Saturday...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Lowest wind chill readings 7 below to 11 above zero in the morning.

[attallaman]

Can you believe these forecasted low temperatures for the metro area of NOLA and the northshore? Information is courtesy of WWL TV 4, NOLA.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/maps?radar ... &img=0&c=y

[attallaman]

Here are the forecasted lows for my area courtesy of my TV station, WLOX TV13, Biloxi, MS.

http://www.wlox.com/Global/category.asp ... v=menu40_3

[rsvh2000]

How do you guys see central South Carolina faring with this storm??

[shibumi]

Nice snow now in Ruston...light snow in Monroe....flurries in Jackson MS...

[Sabanic]

well the new GFS is about the wettest yet. total rain across the SE .10-.50 inches. thats 1.4 to 7 inches of snow

edit to add: also the 12z NAM is trending upwards in terms of moisture

I knew last night was probably a fluke. It was only the GFS that was dry and there are more models than that...



Thursday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.

Thursday Night...Snow likely. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 60 percent. Lowest wind chill readings 2 below to 11 above zero after midnight.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s. Wind chill readings 2 below to 19 above zero.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows around 8. Wind chill readings 7 below to 13 above zero.

Saturday...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Lowest wind chill readings 7 below to 11 above zero in the morning.

Who is this the forecast for Brent?

Thanks

[SunnyThoughts]

33 here in Pensacola at 11 am HIghs on Friday don't even make it out of the 30's. My chill bumps have chill bumps.

[RNGR]

The further north and weaker the gulf low, the more moist the SE will get. the 12z GFS has the low about 100 miles north and a little less organized than what the 00z was showing. hence a decent snowfall across LA, MS, AL, and GA. to the North and along I-20

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The further north and weaker the gulf low, the more moist the SE will get. the 12z GFS has the low about 100 miles north and a little less organized than what the 00z was showing. hence a decent snowfall across LA, MS, AL, and GA. to the North and along I-20

RNGR, the snow along I-20 is that for LA as well or could we see some down here in SE LA? Also what time frame is it showing. As of now for us they say the RAIN will be here thursday with highs in the mid 40's. Not any type of winter precip.

[Brent]

well the new GFS is about the wettest yet. total rain across the SE .10-.50 inches. thats 1.4 to 7 inches of snow

edit to add: also the 12z NAM is trending upwards in terms of moisture

I knew last night was probably a fluke. It was only the GFS that was dry and there are more models than that...



Thursday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.

Thursday Night...Snow likely. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 60 percent. Lowest wind chill readings 2 below to 11 above zero after midnight.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s. Wind chill readings 2 below to 19 above zero.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows around 8. Wind chill readings 7 below to 13 above zero.

Saturday...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Lowest wind chill readings 7 below to 11 above zero in the morning.

Who is this the forecast for Brent?

Thanks

Me... I'm between Anniston and Auburn in East Alabama.

[Ivanhater]

Wow! I have never seen them say the ENTIRE area for snow

WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IN PLACE...FORECASTERS
ARE WATCHING FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY CARRYING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS TO THE NEXT
FRONT...WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST. THE
04.00 ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY...AT A SLOWER PACE ALONG WITH A WEAKER REFLECTED LOW THAN
THE 04.00 RUN OF THE GFS. THE LATTER => GFS...BEGINS TO GEN UP A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...TRACKING A
CLOSED SURFACE REFLECTION QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THURSDAY...EXITING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH FROM ITS 24 HR COUNTERPART. EITHER WAY...THE DEEP
LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THE TIMING...CHARACTER AND DURATION OF WHICH WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES. FORECASTERS THINK ALL OF
THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A PROBABILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW AND WILL NOT DELVE INTO
ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND MUCH MORE GUIDANCE
TO DIAGNOSE BEFORE THEN.

[RNGR]

The further north and weaker the gulf low, the more moist the SE will get. the 12z GFS has the low about 100 miles north and a little less organized than what the 00z was showing. hence a decent snowfall across LA, MS, AL, and GA. to the North and along I-20

RNGR, the snow along I-20 is that for LA as well or could we see some down here in SE LA? Also what time frame is it showing. As of now for us they say the RAIN will be here thursday with highs in the mid 40's. Not any type of winter precip.

I think the bulk of the snow will fall along and to the north of I-20 in the states i listed. light snow could possibly fall just behind the front all the way down to say 20 miles from the gulf coast. i dont think there will be snow along the coast itself. and the snow in the far south should mostly occur around the Mobile/Pensacola areas.

[Dionne]

31F at sunrise.....currently 29F and light snow.......!! It's warmer in my hometown of Girdwood, Alaska (62 N latitude) (36F) than it is here in Mississippi at 32 N latitude. Why am I here???

[Brent]

This is for Pensacola FLORIDA.



Thursday Night
Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30 percent.

[SunnyThoughts]

This is for Pensacola FLORIDA.



Thursday Night
Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Right Brent...then on FRIDAY...the HIGHS are in the 30s here in Pensacola

[Sabanic]

It will be interesting to see what transpires later in the week. In the MWS Discussion they are taking a wait and see approach before making any exact forecasts on wintry precipitation and just how much of it.

I do know that it is cold and going to get colder. Would be great to watch the Tide in the NCG, and have some snow at the same time. Doesn't get much better than that!!

[Ivanhater]

I would also like to add Thursday is my birthday, and snow would be a great gift!

Don't read too much into the 30 percent. They are just using that as caution. Chances are actually much higher.

[Sabanic]

I would also like to add Thursday is my birthday, and snow would be a great gift!

Don't read too much into the 30 percent. They are just using that as caution. Chances are actually much higher.

Sounds great to me, and Happy Birthday !!

[SunnyThoughts]

Happy Birthday Ivan...that would indeed be a great present!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The further north and weaker the gulf low, the more moist the SE will get. the 12z GFS has the low about 100 miles north and a little less organized than what the 00z was showing. hence a decent snowfall across LA, MS, AL, and GA. to the North and along I-20

RNGR, the snow along I-20 is that for LA as well or could we see some down here in SE LA? Also what time frame is it showing. As of now for us they say the RAIN will be here thursday with highs in the mid 40's. Not any type of winter precip.

I think the bulk of the snow will fall along and to the north of I-20 in the states i listed. light snow could possibly fall just behind the front all the way down to say 20 miles from the gulf coast. i dont think there will be snow along the coast itself. and the snow in the far south should mostly occur around the Mobile/Pensacola areas.

Thanks RNGR. Hopefully things will change and we will get more than a cool wet day. Something else I noticed is forecasts west and east of us are now showing chances of winter precip on wed night and thursday. Of course we are just rain. Like I said before our office seems to always come in last for any chance of winter weather.