Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman22]

ECMWF should be interesting.

I agree. If we see a strung out S/W as well as the Baja feature again, it will likely have to be considered rather strongly. Just not sold on the GFS solution beyond 24-48 hour time frame since the Parallel became the new operational.

Agree I'll also add that the CMC was not the first or only model to pick up on the post frontal precip...for several days the GFS ensembles have also showed light post frontal precip across the state.I guess we'll see...

[Portastorm]

And we're not the only ones looking at the issue of how the models are handling post-frontal precipitation. Snippet below is from the mid-morning AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY POST FRONTAL THURSDAY.
AWAIT THE FULL MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

[PineyWoods]

Here's a little snippet from the Shreveport HWO -

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ON THURSDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS...AND ON FRIDAY...FOR MOST AREAS.
STRONG WIND COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL BRING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR SEVERAL YEARS.

I don't post much, but since everyone is looking for some moisture I thought I might as well post
what our mets are forecasting.

Hope everyone's plants, trees, and pipes make it through OK.

[severe]

And we're not the only ones looking at the issue of how the models are handling post-frontal precipitation. Snippet below is from the mid-morning AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY POST FRONTAL THURSDAY.
AWAIT THE FULL MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

That is encouraging, but I'm looking for moisture not just immediately following the fronts passage, but maybe a day or two later. Now, that would get me fired up.
Nice low pressure/disturbance developing on its own and not associated with the fronts passage.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF bone dry.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF bone dry.

Looks like a S/W digging into the base of the trough on day 5, but no moisture.

[gofrogs]

Iam lilking next week for sure though.

[Ntxw]

Iam lilking next week for sure though.

This week looked quite interesting last week. But as said, it can get too cold in that there's little moisture return, bone dry. Give or take a surprise here and there, usually when it's cold enough to snow around here (North, Central, South\Southeast Texas), pretty much the cold ends precip odds.

[Portastorm]

ECMWF bone dry.

Looks like a S/W digging into the base of the trough on day 5, but no moisture.

It was also bone dry in the 0z run. But I sure would feel better if it gave us even a hint that the crazy Canadian was on to something instead of being on something!

[HockeyTx82]

Has the snow pack been mentioned of late? There is a bunch just to our north. How much will it impact just how cold we get?

http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ ... viewer.htm

[Johnny]

Has the snow pack been mentioned of late? There is a bunch just to our north. How much will it impact just how cold we get?

http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ ... viewer.htm

The snow pack to our north will lead to very little air modification.

[cperez1594]

Hey guys I have been reading all about the cold weather and from Brownsville AFD they are forcasting sleet here. 80% Thrusday and 40% Friday

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Harlingen&state=TX&site=BRO&textField1=26.1953&textField2=-97.6863

[severe]

An extended period of bone chilling cold accompanied by nothing but bone chilling cold. Interesting, but really just very uncomfortable.
Maybe I'll spray some water on the driveway.

[severe]

Hey guys I have been reading all about the cold weather and from Brownsville AFD they are forcasting sleet here. 80% Thrusday and 40% Friday

Hmm, wonder if that's the STJ trying to get in on the act?
If we concentrate hard I believe we can will some of that moisture northeast.

[funster]

If it doesn't snow this week we should still have 5 or 6 shots at snow before the end of February with the way the cold air keeps plunging southward. It would be a thrill to have seven snows in one season. I hope we don't have a bad ice storm though. Those are the worst. There is nothing worse than having no Internet while you hear the sound of tree branches breaking around you and the roads are so bad you can't leave your house.

[HockeyTx82]

So what is so unique about the Brownsville guys? I mean no disrespect but I am curious as to why the NOAA team down there is so significant when it comes to forecasting arctic outbreaks like this. Being so far south what makes them so special?

[gboudx]

Maybe I'll spray some water on the driveway.

Around here, they let everyone get in on the icy fun by leaving the automatic sprinkler systems on.

Oh what fun
It is to slide
Into an awaiting Chevrolet

[srainhoutx]

So what is so unique about the Brownsville guys? I mean no disrespect but I am curious as to why the NOAA team down there is so significant when it comes to forecasting arctic outbreaks like this. Being so far south what makes them so special?

Back in the day they had some awesome forecsters that say long range guidance and forecasted many Arctic Outbreaks before any other WFO in TX would latch on to it. You've seen us mention the McFarland Pattern before in this Topic. This comes from the "old days" of BRO and the Arctic Outbreaks of 1983, 1989 as well as some memorable events like the SE TX snow events of 1973 and the 2004 Christmas Eve snow event that were first mentioned or forecasted from that office. I will also add look for some late and rather lengthy AFD's this afternoon from across the State.

[wxman22]

So what is so unique about the Brownsville guys? I mean no disrespect but I am curious as to why the NOAA team down there is so significant when it comes to forecasting arctic outbreaks like this. Being so far south what makes them so special?

Back in the day they had some awesome forecsters that say long range guidance and forecasted many Arctic Outbreaks before any other WFO in TX would latch on to it. You've seen us mention the McFarland Pattern before in this Topic. This comes from the "old days" of BRO and the Arctic Outbreaks of 1983, 1989 as well as some memorable events like the SE TX snow events of 1973 and the 2004 Christmas Eve snow event that were first mentioned or forecasted from that office. I will also add look for some late and rather lengthy AFD's this afternoon from across the State.

Srain do you think Brownsville nws may be catching/latching on to something with them putting in an 80% chance of sleet/rain down there?

[funster]

Sadly, the Lubbock NWS peeps say models (particularly the GFS) tend to overdo it on precip chances:

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion