Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!

I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.

Na-na-na-na-na ... (Portastorm with fingers in ears)

Meanwhile, look what the nutty Canadian has come up with for lunch today:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[iorange55]

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!

I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.

Na-na-na-na-na ... (Portastorm with fingers in ears)

Meanwhile, look what the nutty Canadian has come up with for lunch today:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

What if it's the only sane one? Not likely, but you never know. What's its track record?

[southerngale]

I know most people are focused on the short term right now. But I'm noticing a potential big ticket item for early next week. The models are finally picking up on the short wave but don't know what to do with it quite yet. The S/W in question is the one that will be coming through the Pacific Northwest around Sunday and then diving into the central rockies region. This S/W has the potential to cut off from the polar jet and form a potent cut-off low in the southern plains. One analog that has popped up is January 15-16 1964, where DFW saw one of its biggest snowfalls ever (10-12 inches). Just something to keep an eye on!!!

I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.

Na-na-na-na-na ... (Portastorm with fingers in ears)

Meanwhile, look what the nutty Canadian has come up with for lunch today:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Here's an emoticon for just such an occasion.

[Tireman4]

I'm going to pretend I didn't read that.[/quote]

Na-na-na-na-na ... (Portastorm with fingers in ears)

Meanwhile, look what the nutty Canadian has come up with for lunch today:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html[/quote]

Ed stated that the Canadian is on crack!!! LOL

[iorange55]

Ed stated that the Canadian is on crack!!! LOL

Some of the greatest ideas were thought of while on crack, like rice krispie treats.

[Tireman4]

You are condoning crack useage by weather models...well this is different. I would think maybe something slower for the system for GFS. Too hyper. LOL

[Johnny]

"with the middle teens at Conroe with a favorable cold air drainage pattern in the valley around Lake Conroe…could even go a little colder at this location."

There is no cold air drainage around Lake Conroe...CXO just radiates like mad (open sky, open field), similar to Magnolia which one Davis weather station was 22F this morning. In fact temps around Lake Conroe are warmer.

No, temps around Lake Conroe are not warmer. I live not even 5 minutes south of the Lake Conroe Dam area and I had 22.7 degrees this morning. I also live in the middle of the woods.

[HockeyTx82]

What is the Canadian showing?

[Portastorm]

What is the Canadian showing?

A broad area of precipitation over Texas on Friday.

[txagwxman]

"with the middle teens at Conroe with a favorable cold air drainage pattern in the valley around Lake Conroe…could even go a little colder at this location."

There is no cold air drainage around Lake Conroe...CXO just radiates like mad (open sky, open field), similar to Magnolia which one Davis weather station was 22F this morning. In fact temps around Lake Conroe are warmer.

No, temps around Lake Conroe are not warmer. I live not even 5 minutes south of the Lake Conroe Dam area and I had 22.7 degrees this morning. I also live in the middle of the woods.

I was talking just around Lake Conroe, like April Sound. But this isn't because of cold air drainage. This is because of the Piney Woods of East Texas (lighter winds, more radiative cooling).

[Portastorm]

12z Euro is running. Two things catch my attention already:

1) More post frontal moisture than indicated on the last few Euro runs

2) Decent slug of moisture at the 700mb level associated with the precip we have seen in the GFS runs over New Mexico and West Texas on Friday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[txagwxman]

ECMWF deeper with the trough over TX, maybe, just maybe a flurry Fri.

[iorange55]

ECMWF deeper with the trough over TX, maybe, just maybe a flurry Fri.

Maybe this is the start of the pitch changing on the flute. One can hope anyways.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF deeper with the trough over TX, maybe, just maybe a flurry Fri.

Suspected this trend would start. Going to be an interesting 48 hours with the models.

[Ntxw]

All we ask for is the chance

[Snowman67]

ECMWF deeper with the trough over TX, maybe, just maybe a flurry Fri.

In the words of Jim Carrey in "Dumb and Dumber" - "So you're telling me there's a chance"!

[txagwxman]

Hmmm, UKMET looks interesting too Fri.

[iorange55]

Looks the ECMWF might be showing that low later next week......

[wxgirl69]

Ed stated that the Canadian is on crack!!! LOL

Some of the greatest ideas were thought of while on crack, like rice krispie treats.

OMG!!! you are too funny.. So, what is the Canadian saying?? Wish you could have snow.. NANANANANA NA

[Big O]

Hmmm, UKMET looks interesting too Fri.

At which site can I access the UKMET that you are referring to? I looked at the PSU ewall site, but the model panels do not provide RH or precipitation values.