Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[funster]

Would love to see some moisture and snow that might help make it not as cold. Not sure what all the excitement is for arctic air. It just makes things miserable for everyone and makes produce more expensive. It's bad, bad, awful news for our great country that should despised not cherished.

[txagwxman]

Looking at the GFS sounding data, it seems too dry, but can't rule out a flurry based on GEM, but GEM is too wet.

UKMET shows the weak short-wave over SW TX at 72 hours, that is what I was referring.

Who really cares about a flurry, going to get nasty cold on Saturday morning 19F Hooks, 17F Conroe (CXO), 17F Magnolia, 22-23F inside the loop, 20F outside.

Prepare now.

[orangeblood]

Looks the ECMWF might be showing that low later next week......

This is exacting what I was referring too in my previous post. This pattern is setting up very favorably, with all of the blocking in canada, for a cut-off low to form somewhere in the southern rockies out into the plains.

[iorange55]

Would love to see some moisture and snow that might help make it not as cold. Not sure what all the excitement is for arctic air. It just makes things miserable for everyone and makes produce more expensive. It's bad, bad, awful news for our great country that should despised not cherished.

People get excited for Hurricanes, and Tornadoes it's just exciting being apart of it, and following it, and it's a bonus if you like the cold. You're not excited obviously for the damage it'll cause, but there is nothing you can do about whether you're excited, or depressed about it.

[Ntxw]

Well said, it's out of our control and god forbid it ruins more of the economy. But if it's going to happen, at 12 or 13 degrees the damage will already be done so why not go ahead and shoot for the single digits and a record. I'm sure it won't feel much different when it's that cold being 12 vs 8.

[funster]

LOL. I guess those are good reasons. It is unavoidable at this point. Hopefully fruit wont cost too much more.

Really depends on the wind speed as to how cold it will feel once it gets that low.

[txagwxman]

Would love to see some moisture and snow that might help make it not as cold. Not sure what all the excitement is for arctic air. It just makes things miserable for everyone and makes produce more expensive. It's bad, bad, awful news for our great country that should despised not cherished.

I don't think it will get cold enough in Florida or S. Texas to do serious damage. So no worries.

[wxman57]

As for this event, I keep saying that you shouldn't get your hopes up (in Houston) for frozen precip Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Latest guidance has the freezing level way up at 10,000 ft. at sunrise Thursday. We just can't get anything but rain with such warm air in the lower 10,000 ft. Now, once the precip is coming to an end around 9am or 10am, there may be a very shallow sub-freezing layer at about 2000 ft above the ground. At that time, we COULD (possible) see a sleet pellet or two mixed in with the very light rain for the last 30 minutes or so. Then the precip ends, and it's a dry cold.

GFS does indicate some clouds into the day on Friday across Houston. Canadian is back with the chance of precip Friday (light), but it remains an outlier. There's a chance that the Canadian is seeing some mid-level clouds ahead of the upper trof and the precip is forecast to fall from these mid-level clouds. But the surface dew points are forecast to be close to zero, so any precip falling from the mid levels would most likely evaporate/sublimate before reaching the lower levels. Neither the GFS or Euro indicates any precip after about 10am Thursday.

Oh, and one other thing - I'm noticing that the warmest of the 4 daily model runs appears to be the 12Z runs. Don't know why, but I've noticed that the 12Z run has been a little warmer than the other runs for much of the past week. I suspect the actual temps may be colder than what the raw 12Z data indicate below.

12Z GFS raw data plot of temps/dew point/3hr precip for IAH:


Same temperature plot but with cloud cover and wind speed for IAH:

[gofrogs]

What about the big ticket event next week. any thoughts on that from anyone.

[orangeblood]

What about the big ticket event next week. any thoughts on that from anyone.

With all of the cold air around, if we can get that S/W to cut off from the polar jet than we're in business for a decent winter storm. Cut-off lows are hard to see on the models until around 5 days out. We should know much more in the next 48 hours.

[gofrogs]

Are any of the modles shwoing it.

[orangeblood]

The EC is starting to hint at it. The GFS is picking up on the S/W, just doesn't know what to do with it yet.

[natlib]

Midland weather discussion talking of some snow possible for Thursday night and Friday associated with the second wave.

[wxgirl69]

OK... Wxman you got me in check.. I am no longer in denial. You have convinced me... No snow for this week...I have to admit, srain keeps getting my hopes up just a little....

[wxman57]

OK... Wxman you got me in check.. I am no longer in denial. You have convinced me... No snow for this week...I have to admit, srain keeps getting my hopes up just a little....

Sorry to bust the Houston snow bubble for this event. If I ever see an event for Houston, I'll be all over it as I was for the Dec. 4th event. But not this week.

Though the NWS continues to mention of a chance of snow Thursday morning just to our north, model guidance does not show such a possibility south of the Huntsville area. Projected temps aloft over Houston might support a sleet pellet or two just as the precip ends late Thursday morning, but that's it. Even up in Huntsville and College Station, soundings don't support snow, just maybe some sleet.

To give you an idea what the atmosphere is currently forecast to be like over Houston on Thursday morning as the cold air arrives, I made 3 graphics. One for 6am, one for 9am, and one for 12pm Thursday (at IAH). If you're south of IAH, the air aloft will be warmer. Appropriate notes are on each graphic. May be able to squeeze 1 or 2 sleet pellets out of the event before the precip shuts down Thursday morning, but surface temps will be well above freezing and it'll melt instantly.

[srainhoutx]

wxman57. If you have the time (I know you're very busy with clients) please post the soundings for BRO. A lot of folks in the RGV are very concerned (temps) about Friday night and Saturday down there. Thanks for all the help.

[Portastorm]

Thar she blows!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SYS/WV/&NUMBLOOP=10

[txagwxman]

As for this event, I keep saying that you shouldn't get your hopes up (in Houston) for frozen precip Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Latest guidance has the freezing level way up at 10,000 ft. at sunrise Thursday. We just can't get anything but rain with such warm air in the lower 10,000 ft. Now, once the precip is coming to an end around 9am or 10am, there may be a very shallow sub-freezing layer at about 2000 ft above the ground. At that time, we COULD (possible) see a sleet pellet or two mixed in with the very light rain for the last 30 minutes or so. Then the precip ends, and it's a dry cold.

GFS does indicate some clouds into the day on Friday across Houston. Canadian is back with the chance of precip Friday (light), but it remains an outlier. There's a chance that the Canadian is seeing some mid-level clouds ahead of the upper trof and the precip is forecast to fall from these mid-level clouds. But the surface dew points are forecast to be close to zero, so any precip falling from the mid levels would most likely evaporate/sublimate before reaching the lower levels. Neither the GFS or Euro indicates any precip after about 10am Thursday.

Oh, and one other thing - I'm noticing that the warmest of the 4 daily model runs appears to be the 12Z runs. Don't know why, but I've noticed that the 12Z run has been a little warmer than the other runs for much of the past week. I suspect the actual temps may be colder than what the raw 12Z data indicate below.

12Z GFS raw data plot of temps/dew point/3hr precip for IAH:




Same temperature plot but with cloud cover and wind speed for IAH:

This has been going on with the 12z runs since December...I have no clue why either...especially in the longer range. Latest ECMWF just high clouds as well on Friday, just hanging on the lone GEM...if they are going to get a flake it will be closer to the coast. I have no clue why NWS is forecasting sleet for us on Thursday.
Cheers.



*edited by sg to fix post/quotes

[wxman57]

wxman57. If you have the time (I know you're very busy with clients) please post the soundings for BRO. A lot of folks in the RGV are very concerned (temps) about Friday night and Saturday down there. Thanks for all the help.

I'll take a look at a sounding and post if it looks interesting. But I did make a temperature plot for McAllen. Models aren't seeing a significant freeze down there, and no precipitation.

[wxman57]

Some other 18Z graphics I made for IAH. I can make them for anywhere, just need either a station identifier or a lat/lon. My coworker made an Excel spreadhseet that I copy the data from here into:

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

18Z GFS is a bit cooler than the 12Z GFS, as has been the case for days. Don't know why. This is just raw guidance. It's possible temps here will be colder (or even warmer). We'll just have to see how the GFS is performing as the actual front moves south toward Texas tomorrow.