Changes to Advisories / More hours for watches & warnings

[cycloneye]

I like both formats but a little more the new one as there is more information that in simple words the public can understand..Check it out at link below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback_tcp.shtml

[HURAKAN]

I like either format. I guess the new one is more intuitive for a non-weather person.

[brunota2003]

I dont see a problem with getting info from the current format...but as far as breaking everything down barney-style, for all the folks who haven't been reading advisories for fun since they can remember, it certainly makes getting the information out easier...easier to find what you're looking for I guess?

[wxman57]

New format, sample 1, is much better. For decades I've wasted so much time just trying to find the lat/lon, movement and wind speed in the public advisory. Having it in a table up to would be a big timesaver. I never understood why they buried the important info in obscure paragraphs way down in the advisory.

[Cookie]

much better with these improvements

when would these changes come in to affect?

[JonathanBelles]

Yuck!!! I hate the new format! The new format is too wordy. I like the separation of information, but that had already been done. Example 2-current is the best I think. When we have really big storms those new format advisories will become miles long. I don't think there is any reason to add to the length of the advisories.

[vbhoutex]

New format, sample 1, is much better. For decades I've wasted so much time just trying to find the lat/lon, movement and wind speed in the public advisory. Having it in a table up to would be a big timesaver. I never understood why they buried the important info in obscure paragraphs way down in the advisory.

I agree fully!! It was often difficult to find the main information I wanted and I'd find myself going back and forth in the advisory looking for it.

[O Town]

New format, sample 1, is much better. For decades I've wasted so much time just trying to find the lat/lon, movement and wind speed in the public advisory. Having it in a table up to would be a big timesaver. I never understood why they buried the important info in obscure paragraphs way down in the advisory.

I agree fully!! It was often difficult to find the main information I wanted and I'd find myself going back and forth in the advisory looking for it.

Ditto!
I think the new format will make it easier to get what you want without having to read all the unnecessary info.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't like the proposed format. I think it is much more clunky than it needs to be. If they want to make the information more accessible, I think they need to simplify the public advisory. Just cut out the fat. For example, this is from the current advisory format, and blow it is how I personally simplify it and make it more accessible:

"KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
"

This is how I would say it (without typing in all caps):
"Katrina is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches with 15-20 inches in isolated areas across South Florida and the Florida Keys".

The info just needs to be simplified. Oh, and I would cut the "48 hour discussion" part of the proposed advisory. Keep the extended prediction explanations to the actual advisory Discussions.

[cycloneye]

NHC will increase the hours for tropical or hurricane watches and warnings.I favor that change to give more time for people affected to prepare.See hyperlink below for the details.

NOAA Information on Extending Hours of Watches & Warnings

[Derek Ortt]

not the biggest fan of the extra lead time for cyclones below hurricane intensity

How much lead time do we need for a 40 mph tropical storm? That doesn't even qualify as a severe thunderstorm. 12 hours is sufficient for a tropical storm, IMO. Of course, more is needed for a strong hurricane because it takes a lot of time to handle evacuations

[CrazyC83]

I do agree that strength should play a role. For a 40 mph tropical storm, 36 hour lead team isn't even really needed, 24 hours makes more sense IMO (enough time to cover the rainfall threat). I'd make the lead time as follows for intensity from the onset of tropical storm winds (the forecast intensity at landfall):

Weak tropical storms (<50 kt, including developing TD's) - 24 hours (straight to TS Warning, except for a TD that might develop)
Strong tropical storms (50-60 kt) - 36 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 48 hours
Category 2 hurricanes - 60 hours
Category 3+ hurricanes, or high-IKE hurricanes less than Cat 3 - 72 hours

For a warning, the lead time should be from the onset of such winds (based on projected winds for certain locations, so the warnings at 36 hours would be smaller, and expanding at 30 hours and 24 hours):

Tropical storms - 24 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 30 hours
Category 2+ hurricanes - 36 hours

[Derek Ortt]

I do agree that strength should play a role. For a 40 mph tropical storm, 36 hour lead team isn't even really needed, 24 hours makes more sense IMO (enough time to cover the rainfall threat). I'd make the lead time as follows for intensity from the onset of tropical storm winds (the forecast intensity at landfall):

Weak tropical storms (<50 kt, including developing TD's) - 24 hours (straight to TS Warning, except for a TD that might develop)
Strong tropical storms (50-60 kt) - 36 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 48 hours
Category 2 hurricanes - 60 hours
Category 3+ hurricanes, or high-IKE hurricanes less than Cat 3 - 72 hours

For a warning, the lead time should be from the onset of such winds (based on projected winds for certain locations, so the warnings at 36 hours would be smaller, and expanding at 30 hours and 24 hours):

Tropical storms - 24 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 30 hours
Category 2+ hurricanes - 36 hours

72 hours is far too much lead time as the forecasts still have a fairly large margin of error (I know I've butchered a few 72 hour forecasts)

this is what I would like to see

TS warning or TS warning/Hurricane Watch (for TSs that may reach minimal cane) 9-12 hours. We are talking about a severe thunderstorm here that is prolonged. Only evacs needed are immediate coastal, near rivers/streams, and maybe mobile homes. 9/12 hours is enough time to accomplish that

Hurricane Watch: 36-48 hours before LANDFALL (when landfall is forecast to occur at hurricane intensity). Longer lead times for more intense storms, of course.

Hurricane Watch/TS Warning (for hurricane landfalls, but the area is not expected to receive hurricane winds, but the possibility exists, OR it is a large storm and TS winds will move onshore well before the hurricane winds (i.e. Frances): 24 hours PRIOR to the onset of TS winds

Hurricane WARNING: 24-30 hours prior to LANDFALL

cat 5 wind warning: 9-12 hours before LANDFALL... localized to the immediate area of landfall, UNLESS there is an UNPRECEDENTED surge threat (i.e. Katrina) over a larger area

[CrazyC83]

I do agree that tropical storm watches should no longer be issued for storms less than 50 kt, except for a tropical depression that might strengthen to tropical storm status (in that case, it would be issued at the same time a warning would). At 50 kt, there would be a chance of isolated hurricane-force gusts, which is enough to cause power outages, tree damage and some damage to mobile homes, which IMO is enough to call for 36 hour notice (which could be one business day, depending on the timing of the watch issuance).

A High Wind Watch (which goes into place at 35 kt sustained winds) normally takes effect about 24 hours in advance, so that situation is similar. Thunderstorm/convective winds are not a good comparison since those usually do not last nearly as long as synoptic winds (except in the most intense derecho events).

I didn't look at a Cat 5 wind warning, since only a very tiny area would get such winds at landfall even if a storm hit at that strength.

[WeatherEmperor]

I do like where you are going with this, but I don't think I can agree 100% with this. Let me explain why:

Hurricane Humberto 2007

Humberto formed as a Tropical Depression on 9/12/2007 at 10:00am CDT and made landfall as an 85mph Cat 1 Hurricane on 9/13/2007 at 02:00am CDT. (Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/HUMBERTO.shtml?)

According to your proposal, as soon as it became a TD, 24 hours hours prior to landfall would be the lead time. But Humberto became a Cat 1 hurricane just prior to landfall. According to your proposal, 48 hours would be the lead time for a Cat 1 hurricane. In this case, the system would not work because residents would not have the 48 hour lead time to prepare for a Cat 1 hurricane.

Humberto is a rare event but it can happen again. The point I am trying to make is that intensity is the most difficult part of a tropical cyclone to forecast. Therefore creating different lead times for different cyclone intensities is very tricky.

<RICKY>

I do agree that strength should play a role. For a 40 mph tropical storm, 36 hour lead team isn't even really needed, 24 hours makes more sense IMO (enough time to cover the rainfall threat). I'd make the lead time as follows for intensity from the onset of tropical storm winds (the forecast intensity at landfall):

Weak tropical storms (<50 kt, including developing TD's) - 24 hours (straight to TS Warning, except for a TD that might develop)
Strong tropical storms (50-60 kt) - 36 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 48 hours
Category 2 hurricanes - 60 hours
Category 3+ hurricanes, or high-IKE hurricanes less than Cat 3 - 72 hours

For a warning, the lead time should be from the onset of such winds (based on projected winds for certain locations, so the warnings at 36 hours would be smaller, and expanding at 30 hours and 24 hours):

Tropical storms - 24 hours
Category 1 hurricanes - 30 hours
Category 2+ hurricanes - 36 hours

[vbhoutex]

One thing I see missing here is any reference to surge. Situations like Ike where water starting piling up a full 24 hrs ahead of landfall may need to be taken into consideration when issuing warnings and/or maybe even watches. I think something like this would need to be on an individual TC basis, but I think it must be considered. I really think some lives would have been saved if there had been more of a warning of early surge coming in during Ike.

[Derek Ortt]

IMO, pre surge water level rises (before the onset of TS winds) should be handled by coastal flood warnings

if they occur when TS winds are likely from the outer cane circulation, a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning should be sufficient