Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Re:

#1041 Postby rsvh2000 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:06 pm

RNGR wrote:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078-079-
061100-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-HARRIS-TALBOT-
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY USHERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
FORSYTH TO WARRENTON. SOUTH OF THIS LINE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EXACT PATH
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS GEORGIA WILL AFFECT THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST...LIGHTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA... HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AND END ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ISSUED.


Now we are starting to get somewhere.........
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Re:

#1042 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:13 pm

RNGR wrote:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078-079-
061100-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-HARRIS-TALBOT-
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY USHERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
FORSYTH TO WARRENTON. SOUTH OF THIS LINE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EXACT PATH
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS GEORGIA WILL AFFECT THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST...LIGHTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA... HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AND END ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ISSUED.


I like this. Usually it's 2 hours before it snows before FFC picks up on it. Very encouraging, and I happen to be north of that line.
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#1043 Postby RNGR » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:20 pm

anyone know when the 18z NAM begins to update?

nevermind. updating now
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1044 Postby rsvh2000 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:51 pm

Can somebody have the guys in the Peachtree office talk to the guys in the Columbia, SC office and tell them to get on board with this thing :P :P

From the Columbia NWS:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER FLOW BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE WAS UNCERTAINTY THAT THE LOW WOULD
STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA. BUT THE LATEST RUN INDICATES
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH THAT THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
AND AS A CONSEQUENT JUST A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THE HPC QPF REMAINS LOW
AS WELL WITH ONLY .01 INCH FOR EACH SIX HOUR PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONLY PLACED 0.1 INCH OF SNOW FOR EACH SIX HOUR QPF. THAT
TOTALED 0.2 INCH...LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF SNOW FOR PERIOD. SO THIS
DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A LOW END EVENT AND FOR THE TIME BEING...CAE
HAS NO PLANS FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER WATCHES. ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME WINTER WEATHER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.-- End Changed Discussion --
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1045 Postby RNGR » Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:57 pm

:cold:
Last edited by RNGR on Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1046 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 05, 2010 4:30 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
329 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY COLD 7 DAYS AHEAD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FOR VERY
COLD READINGS ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LOWS
GOING BELOW 15 AT SEVERAL PLACES AGAIN...A HARD FREEZE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
STRONG WILL DECREASE SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING
SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM. SO ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW FREEZING FOR WED
NT...NOT QUITE AS LOW. SO A HARD FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS LOOKING TO RETURN FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF C AL. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED YET FOR WED NT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THU MORNING OUR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ARRIVING
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF C AL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO VENTURE MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. MAINLY S OF AN ALICEVILLE
TO TO JEMISON TO LAFAYETTE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS LOOKING AT MORE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX. AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP SOME
AND AIDE TO GET MANY LOCATIONS DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING. SNOW
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AL. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END. FOR FRI/FRI NT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF FLURRIES BUT NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF C AL.
LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS THE SRN HALF. AS YOU MOVE S...TO S OF I85
LESS THAN 1/2 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LESS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE STARTING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND NOT AS MUCH SNOW...
WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE THEY FREEZE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE I85 AND S CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO WET SURFACES
FREEZING UP.


ALTHOUGH THE SNOW ENDS FOR THE MOST PART BY EARLY FRI...THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEIR LOWEST ON FRI NT AND SAT NT WITH WIND
CHILLS POSSIBLY GOING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL BE A VERY BITTERLY
COLD SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON SUN WITH WEAKENING HIGH
AND SUGGESTION OF A CHANGING FLOW...THE MODELS TEND TO WARM THINGS
BACK UP CLIMATOLOGICALLY TOO SOON. SO HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

08

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WNW
WINDS ACROSS ALL SITES WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE AXIS OF A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

27

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE SLIPPED BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON IN A NUMBER OF SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
WARRANTED THE ISSUING OF THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING WHEN RH VALUES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
WSW WINDS THAT WERE BEING SEEN TODAY SHOULD RELAX AS THE AXIS OF
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AS RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 15 35 21 32 15 / 0 0 10 70 30
ANNISTON 14 36 20 33 16 / 0 0 10 70 50
BIRMINGHAM 14 36 20 33 14 / 0 0 10 70 20
TUSCALOOSA 15 38 23 34 16 / 0 0 20 70 20
CALERA 15 37 21 34 15 / 0 0 10 70 30
AUBURN 14 42 19 37 17 / 0 0 10 60 60
MONTGOMERY 16 41 23 37 18 / 0 0 10 60 60
TROY 16 42 21 38 18 / 0 0 10 60 60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1047 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 05, 2010 4:56 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image

New forecast:

Thursday...Chance of snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow in the evening. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Last edited by Brent on Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1048 Postby RNGR » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:04 pm

18z GFS a little more moist. I would like to see that 0.25-0.50 QPF over N GA though 8-)
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#1049 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:09 pm

18z NAM = less impressive than the 12z NAM. Lighter precipitation amounts, including next to nothing over a large chunk of central North Carolina. Hopefully it trends back the other way in the next run.

18z GFS = equally impressive/slightly more impressive than the 12z GFS. Similar precipitation amounts. Hopefully the trend is for a maintaining or increase in the precipitation amounts in the next run.

Overall, these two latest runs continue to show increasing likelihood for a widespread light snowfall (dusting to 2 inches) across the southeast, with a few locations possibly seeing upwards of 3 inches if one or two good bands can set up. Some of the mountainous areas, with upsloping helping out after the main system moves east, could see total snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1050 Postby MississippiHurricane » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:16 pm

For us in jackson, it looks like this is gonna be a snow/ice event here and with the temps being what they will be at night its not looking pretty.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1051 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:19 pm

Updated NWS forecast still calling for snow even for the coast ... This for Pensacola...We will see

Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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#1052 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:23 pm

NWS Mobile.

They seem to be sticking more with the ECMWF solution than the GFS which seems to be the choice of most other sites. Evidently the ECMWF is still sticking with a low forming in the NW Gulf and tracking eastward which would allow more moisture returned back into the cold air once the front pushes through, thus they are sticking with a change over to snow Thurs night.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EXPERIENCING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR RESIDENT OVER THE REGION WILL
ENABLE COLD RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH PASSES SOUTH. THEN A MIX OF
RAIN, LIGHT SLEET, AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOLLOWS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT, BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE
MAY BE PRESENTED TO MOTORISTS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS, ON
FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING BASED ON ECMWF WHICH HAS IN OUR VIEW DONE THE
BEST WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT. A FIGURE, IN WHICH WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE, CAN BE OFFERED FOR ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES TO NUMERICS. DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES
EAST. BEHIND THAT FEATURE ADDITIONAL BITTER COLD AIR IS REINFORCED
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BRISK WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT AND 50S IN THE
DAY.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1053 Postby Sabanic » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:26 pm

Looking pretty interesting!
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1054 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:32 pm

MississippiHurricane wrote:For us in jackson, it looks like this is gonna be a snow/ice event here and with the temps being what they will be at night its not looking pretty.


Yeah, could be nasty over there. NAM looks like an ice storm.
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Re:

#1055 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:37 pm

Why the GFS was the preferred model anyway? It seems to lay just as many eggs as the other models. Anyway I wouldn't write off any possible winter events until all is said and done. IMO

quote="Dean4Storms"]NWS Mobile.

They seem to be sticking more with the ECMWF solution than the GFS which seems to be the choice of most other sites. Evidently the ECMWF is still sticking with a low forming in the NW Gulf and tracking eastward which would allow more moisture returned back into the cold air once the front pushes through, thus they are sticking with a change over to snow Thurs night.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST EXPERIENCING
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR RESIDENT OVER THE REGION WILL
ENABLE COLD RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH PASSES SOUTH. THEN A MIX OF
RAIN, LIGHT SLEET, AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOLLOWS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT, BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO ICE
MAY BE PRESENTED TO MOTORISTS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS, ON
FRIDAY MORNING. TIMING BASED ON ECMWF WHICH HAS IN OUR VIEW DONE THE
BEST WITH THIS WHOLE EVENT. A FIGURE, IN WHICH WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE, CAN BE OFFERED FOR ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES TO NUMERICS. DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES
EAST. BEHIND THAT FEATURE ADDITIONAL BITTER COLD AIR IS REINFORCED
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BRISK WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT AND 50S IN THE
DAY.[/quote]
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1056 Postby RNGR » Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:34 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Updated NWS forecast still calling for snow even for the coast ... This for Pensacola...We will see

Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


I think that they are just covering their bases because there isnt any model support for snow on the coast. its just too warm at the mid levels for snow.

18z NAM 54h 1000-500 thickness:
Image
18z GFS 54h 1000-500 thickness:
Image

even after the precip moves through its not cold enough

18z GFS 60h 1000-500 thickness:
Image
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#1057 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:56 pm

Well, from all I've learned being here during Hurricane season...the models are helpful tools, but mother nature can and usually DOES surprise us. We'll see how it all plays out here on the gulf coast...IM almost to the point where I don't care if I see a flake or two or not...I just want this COLD to end, and apparently it isn't going to end until at least Monday. :cold:
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1058 Postby baygirl_1 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:55 pm

Mobile NWS is using the ECMWF, as Dean4Storms pointed out: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1
New Orleans NWS is running with the GFS: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Birmingham NWS doesn't mention which model they use but they mention snow for the entire central Alabama area, from less than 1/2 inch to 2 inches: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Jackson NWS is referencing the NAM/SREF: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Whether we see snow down here on the coast or not, I'm afraid we're going to see some tricky driving conditions Fri. morning. And most folks down here, myself included, have no clue how to drive in that stuff! I may try to bubble wrap my car tomorrow!;)
In the meantime, this Southern Belle is freezing!! :froze:
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1059 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:32 pm

Yuck. Complete flip from the 12z for the NAM, nearly bone dry:

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread (2009-2010)

#1060 Postby Sabanic » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:38 pm

Not along the coast though
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