SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[jasons2k]

Here's mine:

Thursday: A chance of rain and sleet before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 39.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

[southerngale]

Nothing really new here, but NWS LCH just issued this.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-051415-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
901 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...COLDEST WEATHER SINCE 1996 POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...USHERING IN SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN MANY YEARS ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S AND 40S...LEADING TO MANY HOURS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
BITTER COLD EXPERIENCED IN FEBRUARY 1996.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE BITTER COLD COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXTRA
PROTECTIVE CLOTHING WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANYONE EXPECTED TO BE
OUTDOORS DURING THIS TIME. EXPOSED WATER PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED
OR THEY COULD BE DAMAGED. SENSITIVE PLANTS AND OUTDOOR ANIMALS
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR GIVEN EXTRA PROTECTION FROM
THE EXTREME COLD. FREQUENTLY CHECK ON THE ELDERLY TO ENSURE THEY
ARE WARM. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN UTILIZING SPACE HEATERS AND
ENSURE THAT FLAMMABLE OBJECTS ARE KEPT WELL AWAY TO PREVENT
FIRES.

$$

SHAMBURGER

Currently (it goes back and forth between lower 20s to upper teens), my lowest low is only forecast to be 21°. Yeah, I know... only. But if that happens, it's not that much lower than what I saw on Dec 4th (23°) and we've had highs in the 30s this year. However, that 23° wasn't predicted as the actual temps are often lower than forecast and if that occurs again, it could end up being a lot colder than a month ago. With no snow in the forecast (well, I have a slight chance of flurries) and really not THAT much colder temps expected... maybe this won't be as *bad* as originally thought. I mean, heck... we're supposed to get in the mid 20's tonight and we've seen the mid to upper 20s numerous times in this ongoing cold pattern.

But the forecast keeps changing around and it might look different later. Hopefully, some more moisture added in. The 0z GFS ought to be out soon, if it isn't already... crossing fingers for a surprise blizzard.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING COLD EVENT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST COLD FRONT HELPING TO KEEP THE
WX OVER SE TX ON THE QUIET SIDE TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD BE SPARED
ANOTHER NIGHT OF AT/BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN FCST ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE REMAINS THE IMP-
ENDING PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEDS/EARLY THUR AND
THE SUBSEQUENT ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE RE-
GION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL NOT PLANNING ON
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS MODELS STAY
IN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSENSUS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

SO FAR THE MAIN DEVIATION FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN/REMAINS
WITH THE TEMPS IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. ONCE READINGS DO FALL
BELOW FREEZING THURS AFTN/EVENING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA (NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM
TO THE WOODLANDS TO THE MOSS HILL AREA) TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL SAT AFTN. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS AREA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE COAST SHOULD EXPERIENCE A LOT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN HOURS
BELOW FREEZING. ALL SE TX RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING COLD EVENT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO
PREVAIL LATE SUN MORN AS THE VERY COLD SFC HIGH FINALLY EDGES TO
THE EAST. 41
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE RELAXING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SE FLOW WEDNESDAY INCREASES IN
STRENGTH AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND. LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS MAY REACH SCEC.
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN WATERS AND
GALVESTON BAY AREA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AM SKEPTICAL AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS/MIXING AND ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS OVER LA/MS AND DO NOT EXPECT
THIS RECYCLED AIRMASS TO HAVE MOISTENED BACK UP SUFFICIENTLY AT THIS
TIME.

MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING 04-09AM. WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR
GALE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND EVEN FRIDAY. VERY LOW TIDE
LEVELS POSSIBLE. A WINDOW OF 4-8 HOURS WHERE COASTAL WATERS MAY HAVE
A SHOT AT SEEING SNOW FLAKES OR RAIN/ICE PELLET MIX DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY 00Z. A RAW NIGHT ON THE WATER WITH 30 TO 36 DEGREE AIR THAT
SHOULD BE RACING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS SO COLD THAT I WILL BE BLANKETING THE
BACKYARD CITRUS. MODELS ALSO DEPICTING ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT
EARLY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

[southerngale]

Brrr... it's freaking cold!! Currently 26° at 8:30am. The Weatherbug station just west of me had a low of 23° and the one just east of me had a low of 22°

There's frost outside and my birdbath is frozen. At 7:25 last night, I noticed it was already 31° so it's been below freezing for over 13 hours and still a ways to go. Geesh... hard to believe this is the same place that was setting records for sweltering heat this past summer. Boy that seems like a long time ago! lol

Even down at the airport, it was 25° for several hours and is currently sitting at 27°

My predicted low was 26° and the low near the airport was forecast to be 28° - just pointing out how much colder it was in reality to what the models/forecast was. If that happens again later this week... ouch. The teens are back in my forecast with lows now 24, 19, and 20 Thursday night through Saturday night.

They've already issued another Hard Freeze Warning for tonight.

[southerngale]

They're brrr'ing at the LCH office too. hehe
Btw, warming up. It's 28° now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
328 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...

BRRRR...ITS A VERY CHILLY START TO THIS TUESDAY MORNING BUT MUCH
COLDER AIR IS ON THE WAY LATER THIS WEEK. HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA UNTILL 8 AM. AREA TEMPS RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER
20S. EVERYONE IS BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE VERY IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. A FEW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE AND PUSH OFF SHORE OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP
THINGS CLEAR AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER HEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEARS SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
COUNTIES AND PARISHES EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREA WILL MEET THE HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
WHICH IS 27 DEGREES.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE BIG ARCTIC BLAST WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS BEGIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND NAM
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING BUT NOTE THE EURO IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT AND MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT LONGER
BY 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE ENDING. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS AND IT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED IF IT DOES BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER BEFORE ENDING. WILL STILL
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SINCE
FEB 1996 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND CHILL
VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHICH WILL BE IN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL SEE A
PROLONG PERIOD OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS
TO PIPES. RESIDENTS NEED TO PREPARE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK LATER THIS WEEK. RECORD LOWS WILL BE THREATENED LATER THIS
WEEK.

A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL FOLLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY AS WINDS RELAX. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT
BEFORE A BRIEF RETURN FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE BIG ARCTIC
FRONT ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING UP NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE DURING THE EVENING. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES
FOR TWO HOURS OR MORE. THESE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A HARD FREEZE WARNING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXPECT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HZ.A.0001.100108T0300Z-100109T1800Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING UP NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN AREA WIDE DURING THE EVENING. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES
FOR TWO HOURS OR MORE. THESE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
A HARD FREEZE WARNING. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXPECT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

FURTHER DETAILS ON THE DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROVIDED
AS THE EVENT NEARS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL
CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. SENSITIVE PLANTS AND ANIMALS WILL
REQUIRE PROTECTION. A HARD FREEZE CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO EXPOSED PIPES.
BEGIN MAKING PLANS FOR FOLKS THAT MIGHT NEED A LITTLE EXTRA HELP...ESPECIALLY
THE ELDERLY AND THE VERY YOUNG. EXTRA PROTECTIVE CLOTHING WILL BE NEEDED
FOR ANYONE EXPECTED TO BE OUTDOORS AT THESE TIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR COMMERCIAL RADIO
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVENT...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HOUSTON.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff...

WFO has issued a Hard Freeze Watch effective from Thursday evening to Saturday morning for all SE TX counties.



Preparations for an extended period of sub-freezing weather should be completed by Wednesday evening.



Bitter cold arctic air mass is on the move and heading southward and will arrive into the region early Thursday. Latest guidance as trended a tad slower with the advection of the real cold air into the region with temperatures falling to freezing around 900am across our northern counties and closer to 600pm along US 59. Hard freeze will affect all location except the beaches Friday morning with highs only warming to near freezing N of I-10 and 2-4 hours slightly above freezing S of I-10.



Friday night will be the coldest…will expand the upper teens southward to include extreme northern Harris County and much of Waller County. Looks like 16-18 College Station to 18-22 IAH to 28 on Galveston Island. Even the urban heat core will drop into the middle 20’s by Saturday morning. Dewpoints falling below zero during this period will support an incredibly dry air mass which should allow for much of the area to recover into the 30-38 degree range Saturday afternoon before another hard freeze Saturday night/Sunday morning. Lows on Sunday morning will range from the upper teens N and W to middle 20’s central to upper 20’s coast. These temperatures are about 5-8 degrees colder than what was experienced on Dec 5th of last year.



Extensive damage to tropical vegetation even protected can be expected. Potential for exposed pipes to freeze and burst will be greatest along and N of a line from Victoria to Katy to Liberty where intensity and duration of this event will be the greatest. In fact some locations N of a Waller to Conroe to Livingston line may be below freezing for up to 60 hours.



Will continue to fine tune the lows for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings, but a significant cold weather event not seen in this area since 1996 is very likely and preparations should be made to mitigate the damaging effects of such prolonged cold.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts this afternoon and some Cold Weather History as well...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
231 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

...POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING COLD EVENT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL LOSE
ITS GRIP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
COME BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE AREA SAW THIS MORNING...WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW SHOULD BE FOUND ONLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE AREA WILL SEE A NICE
WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE) WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO RACE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY COMING IN THE
MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM EAGLE LAKE TO THE WOODLANDS TO ROMAYOR. FURTHER SOUTH AND TOWARD
THE COAST...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. TEMPERATURES THEN PLUNGE STARTING THURSDAY EVENING
WITH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS (EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) EXPERIENCING
A HARD FREEZE WITH READINGS 25 DEGREES OR BELOW FOR TWO HOURS OR MORE.
A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.
SIMILAR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH RIDGES SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THEN SLOWLY WARM STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND RAIN EVENTUALLY COME BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 42
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES BETWEEN
12-15Z. BKN-OVC DECK POSSIBLE BEYOND 15Z WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18-00Z. 43

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE RELAXING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE AS PRESSURES FALL OVER WEST TEXAS. LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS MAY REACH SCEC
CRITERIA.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BAYS AROUND SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF WATERS BETWEEN 8 AM AND 10
AM. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE BAYS ON FRIDAY BUT COLDER AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE AND
10 TO 13 FEET OFFSHORE. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MARINERS...ESPECIALLY SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO STAY IN PORT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS.

ANOTHER ISSUE COMPOUNDING THINGS FOR MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL FLUSH WATER OUT OF THE
BAYS AND DRIVE TIDE LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL. IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST...TIDE LEVELS COULD DROP A BIT FURTHER. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY COLD AIR ON THE WAY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PARTS OF THE REGION
WILL ENDURE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 48-60 HOURS. THE LAST
TIME IAH HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW 20 DEGREES WAS JANUARY 8 1996
WHEN THE TEMP DROPPED TO 19 DEGREES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE
CITY OF HOUSTON WAS 5 DEGREES ON JANUARY 18 1930. AT HOBBY AIRPORT...THE
LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW 20 DEGREES WAS DECEMBER 22 1989
WHEN THE TEMP DROPPED TO 15 DEGREES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED
AT HOBBY AIRPORT WAS 5 DEGREES ON JANUARY 23 1940. GALVESTONS LOWEST
TEMPERATURE WAS 8 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 12 1899 AND THE LAST TIME THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW 20 DEGREES WAS ON DECEMBER 23 1989 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 14 DEGREES. COLLEGE STATION HAD ITS COLDEST
TEMPERATURE ON JANUARY 31 1949 WITH A MIN TEMP OF -3. IT HAS FALLEN
AS LOW AS 2 DEGREES ON DECEMBER 23 1989. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE
AT CLL HAS FALLEN BELOW 20 DEGREES WAS AS RECENTLY AS MARCH 4 2002 WITH
A LOW OF 17 DEGREES.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SPELL.

IAH HOU GLS CLL

8TH (FRI)
- RECORD LOW 19/1996 - 21/1976 - 11/1886 - 15/1976
- RECORD LOW MAX 33/1988 - 33/1988 - 31/1886 - 33/1968

9TH (SAT)
- RECORD LOW 19/1976 - 22/1962 - 15/1886 - 19/1962
- RECORD LOW MAX 34/1973 - 34/1973 - 35/1886 - 29/1973

10TH (SUN)
- RECORD LOW 18/1977 - 17/1962 - 18/1962 - 14/1962
- RECORD LOW MAX 27/1962 - 29/1962 - 26/1962 - 19/1962

43

[srainhoutx]

Very good discussion from LCH...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD SHALLOW DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LOUISIANA WILL DRIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST...REACHING VICINITY TAMPA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD DOME EXITING EAST-SOUTHEAST...PRESSURES
WILL BEGIN FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A BACKDOOR
WARM FRONT WILL FORM NEAR A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE-TO-CARMEN MEXICO
BY NOON WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST...REACHING A CAMERON-TO-
YUCATAN CHANNEL LINE BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE BEING SHOVED
SOUTHEAST BY A FAST-MOVING ARCTIC FRONT BY MIDMORNING THURSDAY.

AT MIDTROPOSPHERE...THE LOW-INDEX WAVE PATTERN IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
WILL PERSIST...A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A BROAD POLAR LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC. A POLAR-FRONT JET STREAM SEPARATES THESE TWO FEATURES
...CORING ALONG AN ALBERTA TO ARKANSAS AXIS.

THE QUEBEC LOW WILL DEEPEN SOUTHWEST INTO IOWA...GENERATING AN
ALBERTA JET-STREAK IMPULSE...WHICH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING...BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST...AND TRAVELING ACROSS ARKANSAS
BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE AREA...AS LOUISIANA
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
RUNNING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY...OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY:

OVERRUNNING CLOUDS (MAINLY UPSLIDING GULF STRATUS),

LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF POTENTIAL SLANTIWISE
INSTABILITY WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INTERFACE,

AND ADEQUATE COMBINED LIFT...AS COLD-FRONTAL LIFT PHASES IN WITH A
TRAVELING JET-STREAK IMPULSE.

OVERRUNNING STABLE RAINS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...EVOLVING
TO MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO LINEAR RAIN BANDS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.

RAINS WILL END---FROM WEST TO EAST---WITH PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT. A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR...MAINLY
ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS AND LAKES REGION. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE REMAINS THE VERY COLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TERRESTRIAL
FLUXES FROM AN INITIALLY WARM GROUND WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE
ROBUST ADVECTIVE COOLING. HOWEVER...THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE RUNNING
IN THE TEENS.

THE COLDEST WEATHER WILL HAPPEN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. TERRESTRIAL FLUXES FROM THE NOW CHILLED GROUND WILL DO LITTLE
TO HEAT THE OVERLYING CANADIAN AIR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING...FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS AND LAKES REGION
...TO THE MID 20S AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
POST-FRONTAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW
NORMAL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW WATER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

[jasons2k]

Thanks for posting that - that was a really good discussion.

I bought two propane radiant heaters today. I'm getting close to ready.

[srainhoutx]

I'll finish tomorow. Polaris pool sweeper wrapped and ready. I'll cover the fish pond tomorrow a well as the plants. Pipes are ready and have moved some potted tropicals indoors. Have a couple of neighbors (elderly) to help tomorrow as well. Then I can relax or collapse.

[srainhoutx]

Not too shabby. Anyone thinking this is not the real deal with the cold might want to think again...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH SITTING ACROSS SE TX AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
ONLY A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS SE TX. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE CRATERED QUICKLY WITH
CONROE AND CROCKETT ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FAR SW ZONES LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FIRST PERIOD WITH MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO
DELAY ONSET OF CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS IMPENDING "ARCTIC BLAST `10"...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THINGS WELL HANDLED AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. A HARD FREEZE
WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE TX. IT IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKE THIS COLD SNAP WILL RESULT IN OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE AT LEAST JANUARY AND FEBRUARY OF 1996. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE
(BOTH MET AND MAV) IS PREDICTING A LOW OF 28 THURSDAY NIGHT IN
GALVESTON. THE LAST TIME GALVESTON SAW A TEMPERATURE BELOW 30
DEGREES WAS FEB 5TH 1996. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIN TEMPS OF
20-23 IN THE HOUSTON AREA ON BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS. WILL ISSUE A PNS SHORTLY
WHICH DOCUMENTS SOUTHEAST TEXAS COLD EVENTS OVER THE LAST 20
YEARS.
35

[vbhoutex]

I knew they were going to have to revise early this evening when we were heading down below 40 by an hour after susnset. Currently 32F at the house and falling. It has been quite a while, excepting this winter, since we have gone to consecutive nights below freezing, much less what is coming Thursday.

[HouTXmetro]

are u sure ur at 32? I'm down the road at Reliant park sitting at 38.5

[srainhoutx]

David, I've had only 1 night above freezing so far this month. It was 24 here this morning. Tomorrow night will make 2 and then the bottom falls out. I suspect we will be below freezing 60-72 hours up here. Would not be surprised to see some mid teens if the wind lays down on Saturday night.

[vbhoutex]

are u sure ur at 32? I'm down the road at Reliant park sitting at 38.5

Thermometer is showing 31.6F attm. We had 28.2F last night which I believe was the official low(28F), so I am presuming I am reading very close to correct. I did just move it to another location in the yard which is further away from the house and not under any trees. I am going to check it in a few and report back. It is now showing 30.3F, but I am going to give it more time to settle and see what it reads.

[srainhoutx]

are u sure ur at 32? I'm down the road at Reliant park sitting at 38.5

Thermometer is showing 31.6F attm. We had 28.2F last night which I believe was the official low(28F), so I am presuming I am reading very close to correct. I did just move it to another location in the yard which is further away from the house and not under any trees. I am going to check it in a few and report back. It is now showing 30.3F, but I am going to give it more time to settle and see what it reads.

Hooks showed 32 last hour. I'm at 30 up here on the NW side. Just checked some 'reliable' stations near Copperfield and some are reading 29.8 ish.

[vbhoutex]

David, I've had only 1 night above freezing so far this month. It was 24 here this morning. Tomorrow night will make 2 and then the bottom falls out. I suspect we will be below freezing 60-72 hours up here. Would not be surprised to see some mid teens if the wind lays down on Saturday night.

I think we have had 2 nights just barely above freezing this month. This is very unusual weather for us or at least except for a few exceptions over the last 22 years at this house. Honestly, I am expecting at least 48 hours below freezing here at the house, which is about 8 miles SSE of you. High teens here would not surprise me at all with your area seeing mid teens easily as you said. I suspect areas around Tomball will easily see mid teens or less a couple of nights. IMO, this is already one very interesting Winter for our area and I expect it to get even more interesting before Spring time.

[vbhoutex]

are u sure ur at 32? I'm down the road at Reliant park sitting at 38.5

Thermometer is showing 31.6F attm. We had 28.2F last night which I believe was the official low(28F), so I am presuming I am reading very close to correct. I did just move it to another location in the yard which is further away from the house and not under any trees. I am going to check it in a few and report back. It is now showing 30.3F, but I am going to give it more time to settle and see what it reads.

Watching it "settle" and I have seen it go to 33F and it is now at 31.6F again.

[HouTXmetro]

are u sure ur at 32? I'm down the road at Reliant park sitting at 38.5

Thermometer is showing 31.6F attm. We had 28.2F last night which I believe was the official low(28F), so I am presuming I am reading very close to correct. I did just move it to another location in the yard which is further away from the house and not under any trees. I am going to check it in a few and report back. It is now showing 30.3F, but I am going to give it more time to settle and see what it reads.

Watching it "settle" and I have seen it go to 33F and it is now at 31.6F again.

On a night like this, it's just amazing how several miles can create such a contrast in temps. I'm still at 36-37 range. Urban Heat Core I guess.