Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:
WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF SKIES BY THURS EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE PROGS (MAINLY THE CANADIAN...AND NOW THE NAM) REMAIN
CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A DISTURB-
ANCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR FRI. AND GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHICH WILL ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MAY WELL BE WINTRY PCPN
IF/WHEN IT OCCURS.
WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF SKIES BY THURS EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE PROGS (MAINLY THE CANADIAN...AND NOW THE NAM) REMAIN
CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A DISTURB-
ANCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR FRI. AND GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHICH WILL ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MAY WELL BE WINTRY PCPN
IF/WHEN IT OCCURS.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)




0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- wxman22
- Category 5
- Posts: 1504
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
- Location: Wichita Falls, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Next week is starting to look more and more interesting...Looks like a cold core low




0 likes
Check out the last paragraph
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE RETURN IS BEGINNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN WEST TEXAS. THIS
INCREASE IN FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT NEAR OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BY MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE LAYER OF SATURATION.
THE ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
PUSHING INTO THE UNITED STATES WITH 3 TO 5 MB PER 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISES IN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD...ARRIVING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA BY 4 AM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY
AS WE ARE STILL 24 HOURS AWAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE AN ADVISORY.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/WARM THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
HELP MODERATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRODUCTION
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY DOWNGLIDE IN THE LAYER OF SATURATION FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 800 MB. THE FRONTAL LAYER IS DEEP...MEANING THE
NORTH FLOW WILL CONSUME THE SURFACE-800 MB RATHER QUICKLY AND
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE PRECIP MAY FALL ONCE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE FREEZING MARK. FOR THE METROPLEX...THIS
WINDOW WILL BE FROM 9 TO 11Z OR 3AM TO 5AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
MOST LIKELY FORM OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AS THE ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION LAYER OF -10C TO -20C
REMAINS DRY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A MERIDIAN TO ATHENS
LINE. ANY FROZEN PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS...AM NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT
OTHER THAN PATCHES OF ICE.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
I-20 AND WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-20 FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
0 TO -3 WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED.
AS USUAL WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WE MAY NOT EVEN GO ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOWS SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AS A STRONG WAVE
APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME SENDING THE NEXT
FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP IT WILL BE. WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN FOR NOW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE RETURN IS BEGINNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN WEST TEXAS. THIS
INCREASE IN FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT NEAR OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BY MIDDAY. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE LAYER OF SATURATION.
THE ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
PUSHING INTO THE UNITED STATES WITH 3 TO 5 MB PER 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISES IN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD...ARRIVING IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA BY 4 AM. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY
AS WE ARE STILL 24 HOURS AWAY...BUT THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL
LIKELY INCLUDE AN ADVISORY.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/WARM THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
HELP MODERATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRODUCTION
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY DOWNGLIDE IN THE LAYER OF SATURATION FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 800 MB. THE FRONTAL LAYER IS DEEP...MEANING THE
NORTH FLOW WILL CONSUME THE SURFACE-800 MB RATHER QUICKLY AND
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE PRECIP MAY FALL ONCE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE FREEZING MARK. FOR THE METROPLEX...THIS
WINDOW WILL BE FROM 9 TO 11Z OR 3AM TO 5AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
MOST LIKELY FORM OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP WILL BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AS THE ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION LAYER OF -10C TO -20C
REMAINS DRY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A MERIDIAN TO ATHENS
LINE. ANY FROZEN PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS...AM NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT
OTHER THAN PATCHES OF ICE.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF
I-20 AND WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS THURSDAY
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-20 FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
0 TO -3 WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED.
AS USUAL WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN
MODIFYING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WE MAY NOT EVEN GO ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOWS SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS. WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AS A STRONG WAVE
APPROACHES TEXAS FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AROUND THE SAME TIME FRAME SENDING THE NEXT
FRONT INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP IT WILL BE. WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN FOR NOW.
0 likes
Mom to 8 really is enough!
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Yeah the DFW NWS is being really cautious about next week, and only mentioned what the GFS showed really. I imagine they're more focused on the next few days, though. It seems like the ECMWF is first to get a good handle on the storms though, and then loses it a tad when the GFS picks it up.
We'll see. The GFS 06z backed off a little, but that means about nothing in the scale of things that mean something.
We'll see. The GFS 06z backed off a little, but that means about nothing in the scale of things that mean something.
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
wxman22 wrote:Next week is starting to look more and more interesting...Looks like a cold core low
Interestingly, it's a slow mover too. Does raise some eyebrows since the GFS suggested it as well. Hmmm...
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Interestingly, it's a slow mover as well. Does raise some eyebrows since the GFS suggested it as well. Hmmm...
More interesting since orangeblood mentioned it before the models.
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
iorange55 wrote:Interestingly, it's a slow mover as well. Does raise some eyebrows since the GFS suggested it as well. Hmmm...
More interesting since orangeblood mentioned it before the models.
It has been of the EC charts for a couple of days, but with all the attention on the Arctic Front, just chose not to mention it until more model support came in.

0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
srainhoutx wrote:iorange55 wrote:Interestingly, it's a slow mover as well. Does raise some eyebrows since the GFS suggested it as well. Hmmm...
More interesting since orangeblood mentioned it before the models.
It has been of the EC charts for a couple of days, but with all the attention on the Arctic Front, just chose not to mention it until more model support came in.
So he doesn't have a crystal ball? This is disappointing news. But really I hope it happens, and drops a lot of snow from San Antonio on north. But knowing Porta's luck it'll stop around temple.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
srainhoutx wrote::uarrow: That feature showed up well on the 500mb level last night KatDaddy. Bears Watching and Portastorm missed it while sleeping!Wait til he sees the ECMWF for Tuesday.
![]()
Do I hear strains of the "Hallelujah" chorus?!

What wonderful news my Houston friends on S2K have given me to start the day!! Mil gracias.
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Just an FYI: TXDOT will begin laying down deicing agent this morning across the Houston Metro Area.
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
NWSFO Amarillo progs frontal passage for Amarillo at 3 p.m. today based on the latest. While I know that fronts tend to move quicker in the daytime, this may be somewhat ahead of schedule. Our local NWSFO suggested frontal passage about 3 a.m. Thursday. We shall see.
0 likes
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Sunday morning maybe the coldest morning...maybe some clouds Saturday morning (mid-level/high) at least on the WRF but not on the GFS...we will see. Ain't going to sleet tomorrow, maybe at best 1-2 ice pellets. Precip should end quickly by afternoon. GEM model totally backed off on Friday snow and is bone dry.
Next disturbance on Tue looks like a chance of snow north of IAH, thicknesses borderline though...ECMWF likes CXO, LFK, SHV on Wed morning, but confidence is LOW.
Still long ways out.
Next disturbance on Tue looks like a chance of snow north of IAH, thicknesses borderline though...ECMWF likes CXO, LFK, SHV on Wed morning, but confidence is LOW.
Still long ways out.
0 likes
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:NWSFO Amarillo progs frontal passage for Amarillo at 3 p.m. today based on the latest. While I know that fronts tend to move quicker in the daytime, this may be somewhat ahead of schedule. Our local NWSFO suggested frontal passage about 3 a.m. Thursday. We shall see.
GFS/NAM are too slow with it already if you look at the obs over Wyoming...
0 likes
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
txagwxman wrote:Portastorm wrote:NWSFO Amarillo progs frontal passage for Amarillo at 3 p.m. today based on the latest. While I know that fronts tend to move quicker in the daytime, this may be somewhat ahead of schedule. Our local NWSFO suggested frontal passage about 3 a.m. Thursday. We shall see.
GFS/NAM are too slow with it already if you look at the obs over Wyoming...
Already thru Ft Collins, CO.
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
I'll repost the morning e-mail from Jeff in the TX Topic...
Arctic air intrusion remains on schedule for Thursday.
Hard Freeze Watch will likely be upgraded to a warning today.
Preparations for multiple hard freezes should be completed today.
Discussion:
Arctic boundary surging down the front range of the Rockies at this time with leading edge roughly along the Wyoming/Colorado border extending eastward over western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have fallen into the -1’s over Montana with -10’s and -20’s just upstream over SW Canada. Locally moisture is increasing as old polar high moves eastward allowing Gulf stratus to return across the area. Thick deck of clouds will hold highs yet again well below seasonal normals in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. May start to see patchy light rain or drizzle by early evening across the area.
Arctic boundary roars south into N TX by this evening and off the coast by early Thursday morning. Expect a period of light rain along and right behind the front, but temperature profiles really do not support more than a cold rain or a couple of ice pellets. High temperatures will be prior to the front and then it is all downhill. Will see the freeze line march across the area from NW to SE during the day Thursday reaching the metro area by Thursday early evening and the coast by midnight, exception may be around Matagorda Bay where arctic boundary and tight temperature gradient may bring lower 30’s into that region during the afternoon hours. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in very strong NW winds of 20-30mph with gust of 40mph during the day Thursday. Wind chills will tank into the teens by Thursday afternoon and possibly the single digits by Thursday night as surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 20’s.
As suspected the models were too quick in trying to shift the massive arctic high eastward over the weekend…hence will need to cut highs on Saturday and Sunday and lower lows for Sunday and Monday mornings. We will be looking at 3 mornings with hard freezes with Sat and Sun mornings looking the coldest. Locations along and N of I-10 will fall below freezing late Thursday and likely remain below freezing until Saturday afternoon…then only warm above freezing for a few hours. Even the coastal sections and beaches will see mid –upper 20’s by Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Impressive north winds are expected to reach gale force over the coastal waters and a gale watch has been issued for all of the upper TX coastal waters. Will likely see frequent gust of 40mph+ along the beaches and offshore. Strong north winds will drive water out of the bays with tides running 1 to as much as 3 feet below normal. Boating conditions and vessel traffic will be hazardous given the low tides, strong winds, and rough seas.
Precipitation:
It appears that most if not all the light rain will end prior to the onset of freezing temperatures at the surface and favorable low level profiles for anything frozen. Would not be surprised to see a few sleet pellets mix with the light rain mid morning Thursday…but it will be very light and temperatures will be above freezing…so it will melt on impact. CMC has been hammering away at a disturbance to move across the area on Friday and the NAM has joined in also…although the GFS remains dry. After inspection of the GFS forecast soundings and cross sections of the NAM…it appears there could be a disturbance to cross the area Friday. The low levels are very dry with temperature/dewpoint spreads of 10-20 degrees. NAM moisture is based around 700mb and the GFS shows little moisture to work with. Feel it is best to add in a thick mid level cloud deck for late Thursday night into Friday, but not add snow at this time since the low levels are so dry…it will be hard to get anything to the surface. This cloud deck may result in lower highs on Friday keeping a larger part of the area sub-freezing. Will continue to watch this disturbance closely for any signs that precipitation needs to be added. For now do not see any significant travel impacts with this cold air outbreak…this may not be the same story next week!
Preparations:
Protection of pipes, pets, and plants should be completed by this evening to help trap any available heat possible. Make sure coverings are secured as winds on Thursday will be very strong. E-mail yesterday covered most preparations so I will not repeat.
Extended:
Models show another cold front moving toward the region early next week with a strong southern stream storm system. Not sure the arctic high will move east as quickly as the models show which could prolong the cold into Monday. Next upper air system looks to develop into a close upper low and track across TX. P-type issues look likely across much of TX next week…not sure that SE TX will get into those issues just yet, but it does look interesting.
Forecast Lows:
North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty
Friday: 20-25
Saturday: 17-19
Sunday: 16-20
Monday: 26-29
North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land
Friday: 25-28
Saturday: 20-25
Sunday: 20-24
Monday: 29-30
Galveston Bay region and coastline:
Friday: 31-35
Saturday: 27-30
Sunday: 27-30
Monday: 32-34
Matagorda Bay region and coastline:
Friday: 29-32
Saturday: 27-29
Sunday: 26-29
Monday: 32-36
Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):
Friday: 26-28
Saturday: 23-26
Sunday: 22-25
Monday: 29-32
Arctic air intrusion remains on schedule for Thursday.
Hard Freeze Watch will likely be upgraded to a warning today.
Preparations for multiple hard freezes should be completed today.
Discussion:
Arctic boundary surging down the front range of the Rockies at this time with leading edge roughly along the Wyoming/Colorado border extending eastward over western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have fallen into the -1’s over Montana with -10’s and -20’s just upstream over SW Canada. Locally moisture is increasing as old polar high moves eastward allowing Gulf stratus to return across the area. Thick deck of clouds will hold highs yet again well below seasonal normals in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. May start to see patchy light rain or drizzle by early evening across the area.
Arctic boundary roars south into N TX by this evening and off the coast by early Thursday morning. Expect a period of light rain along and right behind the front, but temperature profiles really do not support more than a cold rain or a couple of ice pellets. High temperatures will be prior to the front and then it is all downhill. Will see the freeze line march across the area from NW to SE during the day Thursday reaching the metro area by Thursday early evening and the coast by midnight, exception may be around Matagorda Bay where arctic boundary and tight temperature gradient may bring lower 30’s into that region during the afternoon hours. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in very strong NW winds of 20-30mph with gust of 40mph during the day Thursday. Wind chills will tank into the teens by Thursday afternoon and possibly the single digits by Thursday night as surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 20’s.
As suspected the models were too quick in trying to shift the massive arctic high eastward over the weekend…hence will need to cut highs on Saturday and Sunday and lower lows for Sunday and Monday mornings. We will be looking at 3 mornings with hard freezes with Sat and Sun mornings looking the coldest. Locations along and N of I-10 will fall below freezing late Thursday and likely remain below freezing until Saturday afternoon…then only warm above freezing for a few hours. Even the coastal sections and beaches will see mid –upper 20’s by Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Impressive north winds are expected to reach gale force over the coastal waters and a gale watch has been issued for all of the upper TX coastal waters. Will likely see frequent gust of 40mph+ along the beaches and offshore. Strong north winds will drive water out of the bays with tides running 1 to as much as 3 feet below normal. Boating conditions and vessel traffic will be hazardous given the low tides, strong winds, and rough seas.
Precipitation:
It appears that most if not all the light rain will end prior to the onset of freezing temperatures at the surface and favorable low level profiles for anything frozen. Would not be surprised to see a few sleet pellets mix with the light rain mid morning Thursday…but it will be very light and temperatures will be above freezing…so it will melt on impact. CMC has been hammering away at a disturbance to move across the area on Friday and the NAM has joined in also…although the GFS remains dry. After inspection of the GFS forecast soundings and cross sections of the NAM…it appears there could be a disturbance to cross the area Friday. The low levels are very dry with temperature/dewpoint spreads of 10-20 degrees. NAM moisture is based around 700mb and the GFS shows little moisture to work with. Feel it is best to add in a thick mid level cloud deck for late Thursday night into Friday, but not add snow at this time since the low levels are so dry…it will be hard to get anything to the surface. This cloud deck may result in lower highs on Friday keeping a larger part of the area sub-freezing. Will continue to watch this disturbance closely for any signs that precipitation needs to be added. For now do not see any significant travel impacts with this cold air outbreak…this may not be the same story next week!
Preparations:
Protection of pipes, pets, and plants should be completed by this evening to help trap any available heat possible. Make sure coverings are secured as winds on Thursday will be very strong. E-mail yesterday covered most preparations so I will not repeat.
Extended:
Models show another cold front moving toward the region early next week with a strong southern stream storm system. Not sure the arctic high will move east as quickly as the models show which could prolong the cold into Monday. Next upper air system looks to develop into a close upper low and track across TX. P-type issues look likely across much of TX next week…not sure that SE TX will get into those issues just yet, but it does look interesting.
Forecast Lows:
North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty
Friday: 20-25
Saturday: 17-19
Sunday: 16-20
Monday: 26-29
North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land
Friday: 25-28
Saturday: 20-25
Sunday: 20-24
Monday: 29-30
Galveston Bay region and coastline:
Friday: 31-35
Saturday: 27-30
Sunday: 27-30
Monday: 32-34
Matagorda Bay region and coastline:
Friday: 29-32
Saturday: 27-29
Sunday: 26-29
Monday: 32-36
Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):
Friday: 26-28
Saturday: 23-26
Sunday: 22-25
Monday: 29-32
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
He's pushing early on next week huh? Two different hints. Hm.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146139
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Off-Topic=To Steve,Portastorm and other members who always want to know the latest about El Nino influencing how winter is going thru.The Aussies spoke today and there are some interesting things you may want to read at their update.The headline is El Nino may haved peaked
Go to thread at Talking tropics.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&p=1957007#p1957007
Go to thread at Talking tropics.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&p=1957007#p1957007
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8731
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
cycloneye wrote:Off-Topic=To Steve,Portastorm and other members who always want to know the latest about El Nino influencing how winter is going thru.The Aussies spoke today and there are some interesting things you may want to read at their update.The headline is El Nino may haved peaked
Go to thread at Talking tropics.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&p=1957007#p1957007
I said last month that El Nino would peak early January and then start a decline by early February, how ever it will not change our current winter forecast as the pattern has already been set. Spring storm tracks will still continue to see the effects of a weaking El Nino and Severe Storms will be more favorable across the entire U.S.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23011
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
KatDaddy wrote:From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:
WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF SKIES BY THURS EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE PROGS (MAINLY THE CANADIAN...AND NOW THE NAM) REMAIN
CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A DISTURB-
ANCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR FRI. AND GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHICH WILL ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MAY WELL BE WINTRY PCPN
IF/WHEN IT OCCURS.
The Canadian no longer forecasts any precip across Texas after about late Thursday morning. Look at the lower right panel of the loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html
Just some mid and high-level moisture on Friday, that's all.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests