SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Yankeegirl]

I am on the NW side as well, near Katy and I am ready 34.7 here at my house.... Its not freezing yet, but it sure feels like it!!!

[southerngale]

Thermometer is showing 31.6F attm. We had 28.2F last night which I believe was the official low(28F), so I am presuming I am reading very close to correct. I did just move it to another location in the yard which is further away from the house and not under any trees. I am going to check it in a few and report back. It is now showing 30.3F, but I am going to give it more time to settle and see what it reads.

Watching it "settle" and I have seen it go to 33F and it is now at 31.6F again.

On a night like this, it's just amazing how several miles can create such a contrast in temps. I'm still at 36-37 range. Urban Heat Core I guess.

I've seen different people mention it is usually warmer in that part of the city.

It's 27° here and was 31° down at the airport at the last update, a little before midnight. I don't think it will get as cold as last night, though, but we are under another Hard Freeze Warning.


The mets on here have convinced me that there won't be any frozen precip, but the NWS is trying to string me along. I still have this in my forecast for Thursday:

Of course flurries wouldn't be much, but still...

[HouTXmetro]

Well atleast you have something to hold on to.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Arctic air intrusion remains on schedule for Thursday.



Hard Freeze Watch will likely be upgraded to a warning today.



Preparations for multiple hard freezes should be completed today.



Discussion:

Arctic boundary surging down the front range of the Rockies at this time with leading edge roughly along the Wyoming/Colorado border extending eastward over western Nebraska. Surface temperatures have fallen into the -1’s over Montana with -10’s and -20’s just upstream over SW Canada. Locally moisture is increasing as old polar high moves eastward allowing Gulf stratus to return across the area. Thick deck of clouds will hold highs yet again well below seasonal normals in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. May start to see patchy light rain or drizzle by early evening across the area.



Arctic boundary roars south into N TX by this evening and off the coast by early Thursday morning. Expect a period of light rain along and right behind the front, but temperature profiles really do not support more than a cold rain or a couple of ice pellets. High temperatures will be prior to the front and then it is all downhill. Will see the freeze line march across the area from NW to SE during the day Thursday reaching the metro area by Thursday early evening and the coast by midnight, exception may be around Matagorda Bay where arctic boundary and tight temperature gradient may bring lower 30’s into that region during the afternoon hours. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in very strong NW winds of 20-30mph with gust of 40mph during the day Thursday. Wind chills will tank into the teens by Thursday afternoon and possibly the single digits by Thursday night as surface temperatures fall into the mid and upper 20’s.



As suspected the models were too quick in trying to shift the massive arctic high eastward over the weekend…hence will need to cut highs on Saturday and Sunday and lower lows for Sunday and Monday mornings. We will be looking at 3 mornings with hard freezes with Sat and Sun mornings looking the coldest. Locations along and N of I-10 will fall below freezing late Thursday and likely remain below freezing until Saturday afternoon…then only warm above freezing for a few hours. Even the coastal sections and beaches will see mid –upper 20’s by Saturday and Sunday mornings.



Impressive north winds are expected to reach gale force over the coastal waters and a gale watch has been issued for all of the upper TX coastal waters. Will likely see frequent gust of 40mph+ along the beaches and offshore. Strong north winds will drive water out of the bays with tides running 1 to as much as 3 feet below normal. Boating conditions and vessel traffic will be hazardous given the low tides, strong winds, and rough seas.



Precipitation:

It appears that most if not all the light rain will end prior to the onset of freezing temperatures at the surface and favorable low level profiles for anything frozen. Would not be surprised to see a few sleet pellets mix with the light rain mid morning Thursday…but it will be very light and temperatures will be above freezing…so it will melt on impact. CMC has been hammering away at a disturbance to move across the area on Friday and the NAM has joined in also…although the GFS remains dry. After inspection of the GFS forecast soundings and cross sections of the NAM…it appears there could be a disturbance to cross the area Friday. The low levels are very dry with temperature/dewpoint spreads of 10-20 degrees. NAM moisture is based around 700mb and the GFS shows little moisture to work with. Feel it is best to add in a thick mid level cloud deck for late Thursday night into Friday, but not add snow at this time since the low levels are so dry…it will be hard to get anything to the surface. This cloud deck may result in lower highs on Friday keeping a larger part of the area sub-freezing. Will continue to watch this disturbance closely for any signs that precipitation needs to be added. For now do not see any significant travel impacts with this cold air outbreak…this may not be the same story next week!



Preparations:



Protection of pipes, pets, and plants should be completed by this evening to help trap any available heat possible. Make sure coverings are secured as winds on Thursday will be very strong. E-mail yesterday covered most preparations so I will not repeat.



Extended:

Models show another cold front moving toward the region early next week with a strong southern stream storm system. Not sure the arctic high will move east as quickly as the models show which could prolong the cold into Monday. Next upper air system looks to develop into a close upper low and track across TX. P-type issues look likely across much of TX next week…not sure that SE TX will get into those issues just yet, but it does look interesting.



Forecast Lows:



North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty

Friday: 20-25

Saturday: 17-19

Sunday: 16-20

Monday: 26-29



North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land

Friday: 25-28

Saturday: 20-25

Sunday: 20-24

Monday: 29-30



Galveston Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 31-35

Saturday: 27-30

Sunday: 27-30

Monday: 32-34



Matagorda Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 29-32

Saturday: 27-29

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 32-36



Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):

Friday: 26-28

Saturday: 23-26

Sunday: 22-25

Monday: 29-32

[southerngale]

Ok, they're killing me. Why do they torture me so? My 40% chance of rain/flurries for tomorrow is now 40% snow/sleet!
It's just rain for Beaumont proper though.

Ah well, after the front comes through, cold and dry. That's what I'm expecting... certainly not getting my hopes up for seeing anything more because it isn't going to happen.

It's currently 30° after a low of 25° here. 29° low down at the airport. NWS and KFDM both now forecast Saturday morning and Sunday morning in the upper teens. I can't seem to get warm now... oh boy when it gets much colder! We got more firewood yesterday... we're gonna need it!

[southerngale]

We've had Hard Freeze Warnings the past 2 nights and now we have a Hard Freeze Watch for the upcoming weather. It seems a little strange, but of course the temps are supposed to be much colder.

Hard Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PEOPLE...PIPES...PETS...AND PLANTS WILL NEED PROTECTION IN THESE
FRIGID CONDITIONS.

LAZ027>033-041>045-053-055-TXZ180>182-201-216-062200-
/O.EXP.KLCH.HZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100106T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.100108T0300Z-100108T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON...ORANGE
744 AM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CST
THIS MORNING.

|A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS NEED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR THESE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BEGIN NOW FOR THESE
FREEZING COLD TEMPERATURES. BE SURE TO WRAP EXPOSED WATER PIPES
AND BRING IN OR COVER SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO PROTECT THEM FROM
THE UPCOMING HARD FREEZE. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME
CAUTION WHEN USING SPACE HEATERS...AND ENSURE THAT CLOTHING AND
OTHER FLAMMABLE OBJECTS ARE KEPT WELL AWAY TO PREVENT THEM FROM
CATCHING FIRE. BE SURE TO FREQUENTLY CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND
ENSURE THAT THEY ARE WARM. IF POSSIBLE...BRING IN OUTDOOR PETS OR
PROVIDE ADEQUATE PROTECTION IF THEY REMAIN OUTDOORS. IF YOU HAVE
TO GO OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR GLOVES AND A HAT.

[JenBayles]

Phooey. I hate Winter! With little in the way of even rain coming thru with the cold, I'll be moving the sprinkler around all day. My garden is the most freeze-blasted thing I've seen in years, but maybe I'll keep enough roots alive that I won't have to completely redo everything in a couple months. El Nino can just take a hike!

[Ptarmigan]

Cold snaps in SE Texas in the past 20 years going back to 1990. I remember the December 1990 cold snap. It was really cold, but no snow.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2010 ... cold_snaps

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff...

NWS has issued a Hard Freeze Warning for all SE TX counties starting at 900pm Thursday through 900am Sunday.

Extended period of very cold sub-freezing temperatures are forecast.

Preparations to protect plants, pipes, and pets should be completed this evening.

Massive arctic high pressure plowing into TX this afternoon with storng boundary currently blasting through the panhandle. Front should reach the coast by 600am Thursday with cold air and very strong NW winds lagging the boundary a few hours. Will see temperatures steadily fall to freezing by early evening Thursday and based on the latest guidance...will likley not rise above freezing Friday along and N of US 59 due to thick mid level clouds. Some areas may remain at or below freezing for up to 60 hours from Thursday evening to midday Sunday creating a threat to any exposed pipes without older exterior walls or on the outside of structures.

See no need at this time to mess with temperatures much from this morning. Could probably go a few degrees lower around Victoria...maybe a few upper teens down that way Sat/Sun AM and could see a few loactions N of HWY 105 fall into the mid teens. For now feel this mornings temperatures continue to cover the upcoming event well and the damage will be done regardless of a few degrees difference here and there.

This event looks slightly colder and possibly longer duration than the 1996 event and may need to go back to 1990 for a comparison outbreak with the many hours at or below freezing.

[southerngale]

Very informative discussion by Lake Charles NWS this afternoon. It lists some record lows for the area. Beaumont is the BPT airport, which is actually in Nederland, south of Beaumont. That bugs me... no idea why Beaumont's official temperatures come from a place that is south of Beaumont, much closer to Port Arthur. But anyway, a good discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...COLD ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO BEGIN THURSDAY WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. TWO
SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE NEAR THE NE
COAST AND ONE DROPPING SOUTH ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. SHARP RIDGING
WAS NOTED OVER THE WRN STATES.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...PROVIDING SERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. A BROAD
SWATH OF STRATOCU WAS SPREADING EAST ACRS LA...EXTENDING BACK ACRS
CNTRL TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH GULF AIR RETURNING BACK ACRS THE AREA...EXPECT TONIGHT WILL
BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS EXPERIENCED RECENTLY...WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE 40S. THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY...EXITING THE SERN COASTAL ZONES THURSDAY AFTN. ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING OVER SE TX THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACRS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN ACRS NRN ZONES AS 925 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN...JUST PRIOR TO THE
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES SHOULD EVAPORATE
QUICKLY WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG
WINDS AIDING IN EVAPORATION.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE LAKES AREA
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BY
AROUND 9 PM ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A
HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING
03Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

STRONG 1050MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES
INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTN WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES COULD BE BROKEN AS THE COLDEST AIR THE AREA
HAS SEEN IN OVER A DECADE SETTLES IN. RECORD LOW VALUES AND
FORECAST MINS FOR SITES AROUND THE AREA:

DATE SITE RECORD FORECAST
1/8 LAKE CHARLES 21/1996 23
BEAUMONT 19/1976 24
LAFAYETTE 21/1942 24
ALEXANDRIA 17/1970 21

1/9 LAKE CHARLES 22/1962 18
BEAUMONT 20/1977 19
LAFAYETTE 21/1962 19
ALEXANDRIA 18/1970 17

1/10 LAKE CHARLES 15/1962 19
BEAUMONT 15/1982 18
LAFAYETTE 14/1962 19
ALEXANDRIA 10/1962 16


THE DEEP FREEZE WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE COLD HIGH SLIDES EAST AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF ENSUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO GOING FCST AND GRIDS DUE TO A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MORE RAIN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER COLD
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
DROP ALONG COASTAL LAKES...BAYS AND WATERWAYS WITH TIDES EXPECTED
TO RUN ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET BELOW NORMAL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT NOON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED SHOULD THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 47 52 23 37 / 50 60 10 10
KBPT 49 50 24 36 / 50 50 10 10
KAEX 39 44 21 34 / 70 70 10 10
KLFT 43 50 24 36 / 40 70 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.

LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update based on 18Z data...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST BASED
ON THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE. FIRST OFF POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY FOR OUR WESTERN HALF AND COASTAL ZONES. ALTHOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MARGINAL EVENT ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING COLD AIRMASS. THE ADVISORY
WILL RUN 12Z TO 00Z FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES...AND 15Z THURSDAY TO
12Z FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WE ARE ALSO UPPING THE WINDS
FOR COASTAL ZONES/OFFSHORE AREAS CLOSER TO GALE CRITERIA. THE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO HOWL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ESPECIALLY THU
NIGHT 25-30 KTS SUSTAINED MOST OF THE NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SO RAISED HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF AS DEWPOINTS CREEP
UP TO THE 55-60 RANGE SO ADDED FOG THIS AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS THURSDAY CLOSER TO WHAT GFS BUFR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN HALF. 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF SLEET OVER OUR NW ZONES MAINLY 13-18Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS IAH FOR A SHORT WINDOW 16-18Z.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. REMOVED MENTION OF
SNOW. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THE SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SLEET. STILL EXPECT WINTRY PRECIP TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.

[pwrdog]

Maybe we won't waste all this cold air...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT MORE PCPN IN/AROUND SE TX THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (ALL
COURTESY OF THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE W/SW). COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH A LOT OF
WIND/FROZEN PCPN NOTED BEHIND IT OVER NORTH TX. AND SO GIVEN THESE
ONGOING TRENDS...WILL LIKELY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND GO
WITH THE MENTION OF SLEET FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING/
TAPERING OFF ITS MENTION TO THE SRN HALF (TO ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST) DURING THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE OCCURRING AS WE SPEAK
AND GRIDS DO REFLECT THE FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OF SOME CONCERN STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL PCPN ON FRI
(MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW!?). MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL HINTING
AT THIS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS/EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN DRAWBACK...A
LOOK AT THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND ALL THE MESS NEAR THE WRN MEXI-
CAN COAST DOES GIVE PAUSE.

[srainhoutx]

Mprning e-mail from Jeff... Surprise!...

Arctic Front entering SE TX



Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 900pm tonight to 900am Sunday for all SE TX counties.



Preparations for this cold event should be completed as soon as possible.



Discussion:

Arctic boundary racing SE at 20-30mph this morning and is currently along a line from near Del Rio to just north of College Station. Boundary should reach the coast by mid morning and clear the outer waters by noon. Widespread rainfall has developed over SE TX…much more than was expected and heavier. Additionally, drizzle and freezing drizzle has developed behind the arctic front over N TX and some of the ASOS stations are reporting light snow. Models did not handle the rainfall with this event very well at all and this gives me pause for Friday…see below. Very strong N winds of 20-30mph with gust to 40mph will be common behind the front this afternoon with wind chills falling into the teens. Winds will stay up overnight leading to wind chills in the low teens and single digits on Friday morning. Strong N winds will also drive water levels down to around 2 feet below normal in the inland bays by Friday. Rainfall should end from N to S around noon today before any freezing surface temperatures arrive into our region…may be close from College Station to Huntsville. Profiles do not support sleet until later this afternoon and at that point the moisture should be well off the coast however would not rule out an ice pellet or two before noon N of I-10.



Will maintain the onset of freezing/sub-freezing temperatures across our northern counties by early afternoon and then to I-10 by early evening and the coast by midnight. Will not see highs rise back above freezing until Saturday afternoon along and N of US 59 and likely Sunday over our northern counties. With all the rainfall this morning, it may be hard to get everything dry before the onset of freezing temperatures. Extremely dry air mass and strong north winds should help dry things up, but I would expect a few puddles to remain and turn to ice this evening and overnight…not only on bridges and overpasses but also surface streets given the very cold surface temperatures forecasted. Extreme caution should be used at any locations that appear wet on any concrete surface through Sunday and on all bridges and overpasses. TXDOT did treat the bridges yesterday with the anti-ice agent so this should help this afternoon into this evening if it is not washed off from the heavier rainfall occurring right now. Will have to see at that point if the dry air and north winds have done their thing and dried the pavement.



Friday:

Models continue to show a disturbance moving across the region. Air mass is forecast to be very dry at the surface with dewpoints falling into the single digits. Models are not showing much if any QPF over the region as moisture is based in the mid levels with anything falling evaporating prior to reaching the surface. However, a look at water vapor images shows an impressive plume of moisture pulling NE from Baja this morning and the fact that the models were too dry this morning does perk my interest. Within such arctic cold domes it does not take much moisture to produce precipitation. For now will continue a cloudy but dry forecast for Friday with temperatures holding near freezing all day. Will watch guidance closely for any signs of better moisture with this system and water vapor/obs for similar indications. Forecast soundings are completely frozen after midnight this evening so anything that falls and reaches the ground on Friday would be snow.



Weekend:

Skies clear Friday evening as massive 1050mb arctic high noses into TX. Winds will weaken and with very low dewpoints widespread teens can be expect both Saturday and Sunday mornings (see lows below). Many locations along and N of I-10 will remain at or below freezing from this evening through midday Sunday or roughly for about 60 hours. Will likely see another freeze Monday morning as the arctic high only slowly gives ground…feel models will be too fast in modifying this air mass given how dry it will be and how large the arctic high is and this may cause some issues as the next system approaches early next week.



Preparations:



Final preparations for this extended cold event should be completed this morning. Remember that anything wet will be frozen by tomorrow morning, so make sure the sprinkler systems are shut off to prevent ice development on surface streets and sidewalks. It is possible that many subdivision “lakes” will develop a layer of ice especially in areas where the surface temperatures does not rise above freezing until Saturday or Sunday along with many cattle stock ponds.



Forecast Lows:



North of a line from Columbus to Spring to Liberty

Friday: 20-23

Saturday: 17-19

Sunday: 16-18

Monday: 26-29



North of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land

Friday: 25-27

Saturday: 20-22

Sunday: 20-23

Monday: 29-30



Galveston Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 28-30

Saturday: 27-29

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 32-34



Matagorda Bay region and coastline:

Friday: 29-31

Saturday: 27-29

Sunday: 26-29

Monday: 32-36



Houston Urban Heat Core (roughly inside the 610 Loop):

Friday: 25-27

Saturday: 21-23

Sunday: 22-24

Monday: 29-32

[PTrackerLA]

I'm surprised I remember this, but back during the February 1996 arctic outbreak there was a surprise disturbance that came through that brought some light snow to central texas and even some snow flurries in Lafayette as daytime temperatures were near freezing. Could be a similar situation based on the energy out near the Baja but I wouldn't count on more than a few flurries. Temps look to bottom about around 17-18 degrees on friday and saturday nights so this is a fairly similar airmass to Feb 1996 (lowest temp 16 degrees with 2 nights of 19).

Funny thing I was just thinking a few weeks ago how it's been so long without temps in the teens and look at what the new decade brings us. Bundle up!

[southerngale]

NWS changed my forecast to all rain last night and again this morning to 50% snow/sleet for today, although I don't see it happening. It looks like the precip will have moved off to the east before the cold front makes it through. It's only 45° right now. (feels like a heat wave this morning. lol)

Today: A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 36 by 4pm. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Why would there be a chance of snow or sleet before noon, then just a chance of rain after the cold front has moved through? That doesn't make sense. Regardless, not holding my breath, but that just seemed a little odd.

Copy/paste alert... Hard Freeze Warning, Wind Chill Advisory, Lake Wind Advisory

Hard Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PEOPLE...PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS WILL NEED
PROTECTION IN THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-071915-
/O.UPG.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.100108T0300Z-100109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0003.100108T0300Z-100108T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.LW.Y.0001.100107T1600Z-100108T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
504 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER
TODAY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE LAKES AREA
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BY
AROUND 9 PM ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PLANTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR COVERED IF
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP PETS
INDOORS OR PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER...FOOD AND UNFROZEN WATER IF
THEY NEED TO REMAIN OUTDOORS. WRAP EXPOSED WATER PIPES TO PREVENT
DAMAGE TO PIPES.

BE SURE TO CHECK ON INDIVIDUALS THAT MIGHT NEED A LITTLE EXTRA
HELP...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY AND THE VERY YOUNG. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN USING SPACE HEATERS...AND
ENSURE THAT CLOTHING AND OTHER FLAMMABLE OBJECTS ARE KEPT SEVERAL
FEET AWAY TO PREVENT THEM FROM CATCHING FIRE. IF YOU HAVE TO GO
OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR GLOVES AND A HAT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR COMMERCIAL
RADIO FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVENT...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/LAKECHARLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

Wind Chill Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
CST FRIDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-072000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WC.Y.0001.100108T0600Z-100108T1600Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
604 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST FRIDAY.

THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS 0 TO 13F. FORECAST WIND CHILL
VALUES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGIT AREA WIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

Lake Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PEOPLE...PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS WILL NEED
PROTECTION IN THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-071915-
/O.UPG.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.100108T0300Z-100109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0003.100108T0300Z-100108T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.LW.Y.0001.100107T1600Z-100108T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
504 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER
TODAY. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING EARLY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE LAKES AREA
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BY
AROUND 9 PM ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PLANTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR COVERED IF
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP PETS
INDOORS OR PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER...FOOD AND UNFROZEN WATER IF
THEY NEED TO REMAIN OUTDOORS. WRAP EXPOSED WATER PIPES TO PREVENT
DAMAGE TO PIPES.

BE SURE TO CHECK ON INDIVIDUALS THAT MIGHT NEED A LITTLE EXTRA
HELP...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY AND THE VERY YOUNG. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN USING SPACE HEATERS...AND
ENSURE THAT CLOTHING AND OTHER FLAMMABLE OBJECTS ARE KEPT SEVERAL
FEET AWAY TO PREVENT THEM FROM CATCHING FIRE. IF YOU HAVE TO GO
OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR GLOVES AND A HAT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR COMMERCIAL
RADIO FOR THE LATEST ON THIS EVENT...OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/LAKECHARLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

*Edit 1 1/2 hours later: Nevermind. Snow/sleet removed again. My oh my... I've never seen snow giveth and taketh away so many times in the same forecast (the past several days).

[vbhoutex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Currently 37.4ºf at the house and falling steadily. It was 50ºf when I got out of bed at 8am. Winds are strong from the North and NW gusting to 42 mph so it is already brutal out there. NWS was saying we wouldn't get below freezing before 6 pm in my area. I will be surprised if we aren't at freezing by 1 pm at the latest. About the only way we won't be is if the current trend stops. It appears to me that this is coming in colder and faster than expected. Of note also are the disturbances we are starting to see that have been mentioned earlier. My currrent take for my area near I-10 and Gessner is temps going below freezing no later than 3 pm this afternoon and not getting above freezing till sometime on Sunday and then only briefly. If we get enough or precipitation and any accumulation(I am not predicting this yet) we could easily not get out of the freezing realm till Monday. I expect temps to bottom at around 16ºf Sat and Sun morning with the low tomorrow at around 20ºf and the low on Monday morning about 29ºf. Highs may reach the freezing mark, but I do not expect them to go above that till at least Sunday.

[Ntxw]

it's sitting at 23 right now at DFW and has been steadily falling all night. I doubt we will make the high forecasted today with so much cold air advection but at least the sun is out if that makes much of a difference anymore. Biting wind chills . I agree I think front came in stronger\faster than expected with parts of s\e Tx easily going into the teens next few days.

[southerngale]

Dang, David. Not above freezing until Sunday? Well, the models do seem to underestimate the cold air often.


KFDM's latest forecast for the Golden Triangle area:



This appears to be by James Brown.


Arctic Winds Will Chill You Down....

The arctic cold front with morning rain and much colder air will take over today along with gusty winds. Wind chill will be bitterly cold this afternoon. Temperatures will fall to the mid 30's with the wind chill at 6 degrees on the average. Wind chill should be 7 below 0 in the morning.

A sustained period of much below normal temperatures will occur this weekend with lows into the upper teens Saturday and Sunday mornings. Highs will barely get above freezing Friday and Saturday afternoon.





Lakes Forecast....

Today.....Rain ending this morning, turning very windy and cold. Temperatures will be falling to the lower to middle 30's this afternoon with the wind chill reaching 0-5 degrees. Winds northwest to north at 8-28 mph.

Tonight.....Hard freeze warning. Lows in the upper teens. Wind chill, in the morning will fell like 9 below 0. Winds northwest 5-20 mph. No rain expected.





Triangle Forecast....

Today.....Rain ending this morning, turning very windy and cold. Temperatures will be falling to the middle 30's this afternoon with the wind chill reaching 0-7 degrees. Winds northwest to north at 8-28 mph.

Tonight.....Hard freeze warning. Lows in the lower 20's. Wind chill, in the morning will fell like 7 below 0. Winds northwest 5-20 mph. No rain expected.

[attallaman]

Currently it's 55 degrees here under cloudy skies and no rain. Didn't someone say something about an 80% chance of rain today followed by bitterly cold air moving in? Southerngale, how did you post that image of your extended forecast? I've tried doing mine a few times but no success. Looks like it's going to be very cold where you're at.

[southerngale]

attallaman, I just right clicked on the image and saved it to my computer. Then I uploaded it here: http://imageshack.us/
Click on Browse, find the image you saved, then click on Upload Now. Then copy the link in the Forum Code box and paste it in your message here.