wxman57 wrote:KatDaddy wrote:From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:
WE
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OF SKIES BY THURS EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE PROGS (MAINLY THE CANADIAN...AND NOW THE NAM) REMAIN
CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A DISTURB-
ANCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME PCPN FOR FRI. AND GIVEN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHICH WILL ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MAY WELL BE WINTRY PCPN
IF/WHEN IT OCCURS.
The Canadian no longer forecasts any precip across Texas after about late Thursday morning. Look at the lower right panel of the loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html
Just some mid and high-level moisture on Friday, that's all.
It does show precipitation with sub-freezing 850 mb temps over Deep South Texas/Rio Grande Valley at 72h (0z Sat-6:00 p.m. Friday). However, even in that respect it appears to be an outlier.
In addition, at 120h, the European is showing sub-freezing 850mb temps south of the Texas/Mexico border with what appears to be moisture (at the 850 mb level) moving north from the south (Northern Mexico). Then at 144h, the precipitation/moisture engulfs much of the State. If this verifies, northeast, central and perhaps south-east Texas may have precipitation-type issues on Monday or Tuesday. Since I live in the RGV, I wonder what occurs between 120h and 144h with 850mb temperatures and precipitation. Do the 850 mb temperatures remain below freezing and does the moisture continue to move north? Anyone with insights, please chime in.