Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
LATE THURSDAY...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND PUSH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD
GULF MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET AT
TIMES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA...WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN OR SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO
TO WASHINGTON LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW...
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF COLDER AIR. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT... WITH ONE
TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED OVER NORTH GEORGIA...AND AROUND ONE HALF
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>060-066>071-070515-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.100107T1700Z-100108T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-
LAMAR-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN
409 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BEGINNING AROUND MID AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ON ROADWAYS WILL MAKING DRIVING
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY EVENING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND PATCHY ICE AS
RAINS AND MELTED SNOW REFREEZE ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

&&

$$

[SunnyThoughts]

Pensacola/Mobile area


FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA...THEN CHANGING OVER TO A
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SLIPPERY OR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ESPECIALLY OVER BRIDGES OR
OVERPASSES.

FOR THURSDAY EVENING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY...CHANGING
OVER TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH...THEN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW FOR ALL AREAS LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SLIPPERY OR HAZARDOUS CONDITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ESPECIALLY OVER BRIDGES AND OVER PASSES BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

[Dionne]

NWS Jackson, Mississippi is calling this a "significant arctic outbreak areawide"......I am so glad they learned how to spell "arctic"....

[Cristina]

I don't understand why the 3 local channels here in GA, all predict different scenarios, why is that? Don't they all look at the same information? That is so confusing for the citizens... one channel says we'll get about 2" or more, another about 1/2" to 1", the other says 1/2" to trace.. We're less than 24 hrs away from this event, you would think that they would all be in sync?

[Ivanhater]

Now mentioning snow accumulation for Pensacola!

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Blustery, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[SunnyThoughts]

Now mentioning snow accumulation for Pensacola!

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Blustery, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

I saw that Ivan, but I also saw where wear3, wkrg5 both backing off of any snow at all now for the coast apparently.

Thursday night: Cloudy...breezy. Chance of rain and very light sleet in the evening.

Also this:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY MANAGE TO GET TO THE EARTH`S
SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION BUT ALWAYS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES...A
CHANCE THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF IT
LOOKS LIKE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.
OTHERWISE A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A COLD RAIN TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTH AND SLEET AND
SNOW TO THE NORTH POSSIBLY BECOMING ALL LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH JUST
BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION MORE THAN A TENTH DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

[SunnyThoughts]

Cristina, I Feel your pain. Same thing happening over this way...everybody saying something different. Rain, sleet, snow...no snow...just sleet...just rain. Who knows lol I guess we'll get whatever we get when we get it.

[breeze]

OK, I'll do my best to push some of this snow southward, but I can't promise the
cold won't come with it...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1227 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-070400-
/O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0001.100107T0900Z-100108T0000Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARDT...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1227 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...3 AM CST THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY

* MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE SNOWFALL
WILL STICK TO ROAD SURFACES WITH NO MELTING...AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ACROSS THE MID
STATE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW
ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
BOYD

[RNGR]

I don't understand why the 3 local channels here in GA, all predict different scenarios, why is that? Don't they all look at the same information? That is so confusing for the citizens... one channel says we'll get about 2" or more, another about 1/2" to 1", the other says 1/2" to trace.. We're less than 24 hrs away from this event, you would think that they would all be in sync?

it will be .5 to 2 inches. these amounts wont cause much trouble so i wouldnt worry. just be very careful driving. the fact is, it doesnt matter what any of them are saying, whats going to happen will happen so lets just sit back and watch it

[RNGR]

[Cristina]

it will be .5 to 2 inches. these amounts wont cause much trouble so i wouldnt worry. just be very careful driving. the fact is, it doesnt matter what any of them are saying, whats going to happen will happen so lets just sit back and watch it [/quote]

You're absolutely right, que sera, sera.. I'll post some pics tomorrow or Fri. if we get any snow.. Thanks! :D

[Jag95]

This might be interesting for those of us on the coast.

HPC discussion:

SOUTHEAST...
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH H85 TEMPS OF M5C MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. STRONG H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE AND NORTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY...WILL GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT...WHICH FALLS
THROUGH A VERY COLD/DRY ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN BANDED PRECIPITATION ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING STREAKING EASTWARD ACROSS
ERN OKLAHOMA/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS
OF MS/AL/GA. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MS...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BRUSH THE COAST FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA.

And then on Friday night :
FLORIDA...
RARE ARCTIC SURGE AND WINTER P-TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ON DAY 3
ACROSS FLORIDA WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF...TO THE KEYS...PER MODEL H85 TEMPS OF O TO M5
CELSIUS. WARRANTS A MENTION AS BRIEF PHASE CHANGE ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WEAK UP GLIDE RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SHALLOW/LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATER WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SHALLOW CONVECTION
ONSHORE. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. SATURDAY...COLD SECTOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY REFORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH A CONTINUED DEEPENING
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE IN
THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTH OF I
20...EXPECT ALL SNOW TO FALL. SOUTH OF THIS LINE PRECIPITATION
COULD START OFF AS A WINTERY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT AND A CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALL DURING THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I 85 ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO GET A COMPLETE SWITCH OVER BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THE AREA.

ALZ017>021-024>029-035>038-041-043-047-070600-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.100107T1600Z-100108T0600Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-
ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-AUTAUGA-ELMORE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...
LANETT...LAFAYETTE...PRATTVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...AUBURN...
OPELIKA
356 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY A SNOW AND SLEET MIX WILL BEGIN ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID MORNING. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE COLDER AIR WILL AIDE THE CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN THE MORNING...AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A PRATTVILLE TO
AUBURN LINE. ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALERA TO ROANOKE LINE ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER
SOUTH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ONE INCH ARE ANTICIPATED.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW OR SLEET
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

08

Thursday...Snow and slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the mid 30s. South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow in the evening. Lows around 13. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind chill readings around zero.

[timNms]

What a difference a few hours can make. Now we've gone from no accumulation to this: (wonder what they'll be saying tomorrow after we have 2 or 3 inches of snow on the ground?

Thursday: A chance of rain and sleet before 8am, then rain between 8am and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. High near 41. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north northwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1048 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

.UPDATE...FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED AND INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. OVERALL...THE THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. TWO MAIN THINGS WILL BE SEEN WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE...FIRST
...HAVE DECIDED TO PUSH THE ONSET OF THE ADVISORY BACK A COUPLE OF
HOURS TO 10 AM. THE SECOND THING WILL BE THAT THE FREEZING LINE
LOOKS TO SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 TO ACTUALLY SEE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WE
ARE GOING TO EXTEND TO ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...EXCEPT PIKE AND BARBOUR
COUNTIES...WHERE LIKELY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE
SEEN.

MONITORING THE SNOW FALL POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR SCHOOLS AND
BUSINESSES AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT I WANT TO STRESS THE ONE
ISSUE THAT COULD CAUSE MORE PROBLEMS AND THAT IS THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
APPROACHING 10 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...
ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS...NOW
WE`RE NOT JUST TALKING ABOUT BROKEN WATER PIPES. TEMPERATURES LIKE
THIS CAN BECOME LIFE-THREATENING FOR THOSE WHO DON`T HAVE PROPER
SHELTER. PLEASE PLAN AHEAD FOR THOSE WHO CAN NOT DO FOR THEMSELVES
TO ENSURE THEY ARE TAKEN CARE OF OVER THE WEEKEND.

27

[Brent]

Slower again

[Brent]

New forecast:

Today...Partly cloudy early in the morning. Rain and chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tonight...Snow likely in the evening. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation up to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
432 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

YIKES! WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD PRECIP
TYPE FORECAST HAS TURNED INTO A BIT OF AN EXERCISE. ECHOES HAVE
BEEN ON THE RADAR SCOPES TO OUR WEST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ANYTHING FROM SLEET TO RAIN TO SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN
BEING REPORTED IN MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AROUND
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE LEVELED OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH
BOTH BHM AND HALEYVILLE HAVE INCHED UP INTO THE LOWER 30S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN RATHER LOW THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE WET BULBS
RANGED FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE EAST TO THE MID 20S IN THE
WEST. WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HERE...THE
EASTBOUND PRECIPITATION IN MISSISSIPPI WAS HAVING A HARD TIME
ADVANCING INTO ALABAMA.

SO...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL (EVEN AT THIS
LATE STAGE JUST AS THE EVENT IS STARTING TO UNFOLD) IS STILL
RATHER LOW. WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MY INITIAL
THOUGHT IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SLEET RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING
(MEANING...THIS MORNING).

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH AT THIS POINT IN THE
GAME...SHOWS THE BEST MOISTURE GATHERING AFTER NOON TODAY IN A
ZONE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO ANNISTON AND THEN ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM
THERE. OBVIOUSLY THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE FARTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. IT
IS REALLY HARD TO SPECIFICALLY PLACE WHERE THAT TRANSITION LINE
WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE. MY BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE DEMOPOLIS
TO LAFAYETTE. THE TRANSITION LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LUCKILY...THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKE A VERY PROLONGED EVENT. AND WITH
TEMPS NOW EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO FREEZING (OR HIGHER) THROUGH
MOST OF THE DURATION (RATHER THAN CONSIDERABLY BELOW FREEZING)...
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF 10-1
RATHER THAN HIGHER. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF ROUGHLY
ONE INCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF I HAD TO FOCUS ON ONE
AREA THAT COULD POTENTIALLY GET MORE SNOW THAN OTHERS...I WOULD
SAY IT WOULD BE THE AREA BOUNDED BY I-59...I-65...AND I-85.

BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY...I WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

THE POST-SNOW EVENT COLD IS STILL ON THE WAY. WIND CHILLS LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BORDER LINE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA (LESS THAN 0 DEGREES). THE WINTER PRECIP TAKES PRECEDENCE
FOR NOW...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT BOTH THE HARD
FREEZE AND WIND CHILL SITUATIONS...AND ISSUE ANY NEEDED PRODUCTS
FOR THOSE.

MODERATING TREND STILL INDICATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON NEXT WEEKS
PATTERN. THEREFORE..DIDN`T GET TOO INVOLVED WITH ANY BIG CHANGES
DOWN THE ROAD.

ROLL TIDE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TAF
SITES BY 9Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TCL BY
15Z...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...THEN
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT BHM AND ANB...WITH
SNOW BEGINNING AT BHM AROUND 17Z...AND 18Z FOR ANB. MGM WILL SEE A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET...THEN CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOI WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AND BEGAN THE
PRECIP AS LIGHT RAIN...THEN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND ALL SNOW BY
3Z ON THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL END FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 6Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 35 13 26 13 31 / 100 30 10 10 10
ANNISTON 37 16 29 15 33 / 100 40 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 37 17 29 16 32 / 100 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 38 16 30 15 33 / 100 20 10 10 10
CALERA 38 20 30 18 33 / 100 30 10 10 10
AUBURN 40 16 31 15 35 / 70 60 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 41 20 31 17 36 / 100 60 0 10 10
TROY 45 22 32 15 38 / 80 60 0 10 10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WEST OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO SELMA UNTIL
9 PM.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT PIKE AND
BARBOUR COUNTIES...UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

$$

[Dean4Storms]

Now for the wait and see how this all unfolds. Also might need to keep an eye on that mid-level disturbance expected to pass on Friday nite.

[SunnyThoughts]

Still a little hope here along the gulf coast

Pensacola/Mobile:

Tonight...Mostly cloudy. Rain and light sleet likely in the evening...then chance of snow and slight chance of light sleet after midnight. Little to no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows 25 to 30. West winds 5 to 15 mph becoming north 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

[Brent]

New forecast, still thinking the main show is gonna start after 3-4pm

Rest Of Today...Rain and chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Tonight...Snow likely in the evening. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.