ZCZC 291 WTIO30 FMEE 080031 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20092010 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI) 2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 0000 UTC : 15.2S / 78.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 923 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 16.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 17.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/69.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0+ SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION WAS SLOWER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A DEEP CONVECTION BAND HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIR. EYE WAS ELONGATED DURING FEW HOURS AND BECAME SMALLER ON THE LAST INFRA-RED PICTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO 36TAU (PARTICULARLY, WITH A PERSISTING EQUATORWARD UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A POLAR ONE APPEARING BETWEEN 24 AND 36 TAU). EDZANI HAS ENCOUNTERED VERY FAVOURABLE ENERGETIC CONTITIONS WITHIN THE LAST 18 HOURS. SST SHOULD LOWER SLOWLY NOW ACCORDING TO THE FORECASTED MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM : EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MORE THAN 27OC SST UNTIL TAU 48 (WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT) AND BEYOND SST SHOULD LOWER MORE RAPIDLY (S OUTH-WEST MOVEMENT). CONSEQUENTLY, EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO STAY STEADY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL TAU 36 TO 48, BEYOND ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE STEERING CURRENT IS A DEEP RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE RANGE FORECAST, A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER IT MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= NNNN
WTXS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 78.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 78.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.9S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.7S 75.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.6S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.7S 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.9S 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.5S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.9S 65.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 77.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FROM PGTW AND 6.0 FROM FMEE. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 080000Z INFRARED IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A POLEWARD STAIRSTEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND TAU 72 AS A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PASSES OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES. AFTER TAU 24, A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UKMET MODEL SOLUTION (EGRR), WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, IS TRACKING THE CYCLONE WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.// NNNN
ZCZC 132 WTIO30 FMEE 080623 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20092010 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI) 2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 77.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/76.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.7S/72.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 18.8S/71.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 20.1S/70.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 20.9S/69.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO TAU36 (PARTICULARELY, WITH A PERSISTING EQUATORWARD UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A POLAR ONE BUILDING BETWEEN TAU24 AND TAU36 AND SST ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON STAYING MORE THAN 27OC SST UNTIL TAU 48 (WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT) AND BEYOND SST SHOULD LOWER MORE RAPIDLY. EDZANI IS EXPECTED THEREFORE TO STAY STEADY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL TAU 36 TO 48, BEYOND ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE STEERING FLOW IS A DEEP RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE RANGE FORECAST, A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER IT MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF ENSEMBLE PRECTION SYSTEM GIVES 2 EQUIPROBABLE SCENARI, ONE WITH RECURVE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE TROUGH, THE OTHER ONE WITHOUT. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.= NNNN