Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Yeah I bet it was something of that nature with much colder air involved. Must've been one heck of low pressure system!

[wxman22]

6z Looks very interesting shows a 1040+mb high nosing in from Canada allowing the system to pump in plenty of cold air it will be interesting to see what the 12z shows.
[img]
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156m.gif[/img]

[iorange55]

DFW NWS had a little strong hint that raised my eyebrow

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ALL BRING A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE PLACEMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FAR OUT THE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ITS STRENGTH ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO DID NOT MAKE
ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT BOTH THE 09/00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
BULLSEYE A -3.5 OR STRONGER STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN THE H500
HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THESE
HEIGHTS WILL VERIFY OR NOT...HOWEVER ANY SYSTEM THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THAT STRONG WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 170W AND 40N
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

[wxman22]

Also from NWS Austin/San Antonio

MORE POTENT RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE LATE WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER
TROF/LOW DIGS INTO THE BAJA AREA THEN CENTRAL MEXICO BEFORE
KICKING OUT NEWD ACROSS THE S TX LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

[Portastorm]

At 7:25 am outside the Portastorm Weather Center in SW Austin ... 17 degrees! Bbbrrrr....

[srainhoutx]

I'm setting 18 with a DP of 14 in NW Harris County.

[srainhoutx]

Haven't had time to look at overnight data yet, but the HPC Prelim Extended Disco raises an eyebrow. Folks, we may need to pay close attention for later next week. This is the system that dumped record snow and cold in China that you may have seen on the News

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
335 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2010

VALID 12Z WED JAN 13 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 16 2010

THE 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT
ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE. A SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF PAC ENERGY WILL
FINALLY REACH INTO CA BEFORE A RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. RELIED LARGELY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z/09 GEFS MEAN AND THE
00Z/09 ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5...FOLLOWED BY A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/09 ECMWF AND THE 12Z/08 EC ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 6
AND 7.

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST ONCE THE ERN TROUGH EXITS THE COAST
ON TUESDAY. WARMING SHOULD BE LESS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WHERE A REINFORCING FRONT WILL BE SLICING THROUGH ON DAY 3 BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE MID ATLC AREA.

PACIFIC ENERGY REACHING THROUGH CA ON WEDS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO NRN MEXICO AND TX WHERE A LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
FORM BY FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT SFC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL
GULF FOR DAYS 6/7. RELIED ON THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS...RATHER THAN THE MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER
GEFS MEAN.
HEDGE

Edited for a spelling correction.

[DentonGal]

7 degrees in Denton!

[sensoria]

Bottomed out at 12.7 here is S. Austin

[Portastorm]

Oh ... to have this verify ...

[srainhoutx]

Oh ... to have this verify ...

Could happen Portastorm. Hold Lucy Back! Quickly looked at the guidance (GFS EC CMC NOGAGS) and all suggest a potent Upper Low hitting CA and tapping some colder air in Canada as the system heads inland along the W Coast. All guidance suggest a very stormy ( possible severe weather) ahead of the low as it crosses N Mexico and stout return flow off the GOM over TX. As the Low deepens just offshore from Brownville, the system slows a bit. There are hints that this will have some Very Cold Air aloft. Also of note is the -AO -NAO and a nuetral PNA are in place. In El Nino winters we see these type systems sometimes. With this El Nino (moderate to strong) still being a Central Pacific based Nino, analogs of 1957/58 as well as 1972/73 come to mind. I will caution everyone that models sometimes show some crazy patterns after a big event like we are seeing across the CONUS and the N Hemisphere at this time. IMHO, we will need to watch this very closely in the days ahead. We have talked about this being a crazy winter and that trend continues. Also I believe that this sytem will track inland after passing our area and not be a Mid Atlantic storm. Also the "January Thaw" in the Plains will not be all that warm, so with snow cover to our N, modification of the air mass with the Canadian/Polar front behind the storm will not be that big of an issue.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[iorange55]

Have had time to look at overnight data yet, but the HPC Prelim Extended Disco raises an eyebrow. Folks, we may need to pay close attention for later next week. This is the system that dumped record snow and cold in China that you may have seen on the News

That is interesting that it's the same system. That needs to be really focused on because if it's that strong of system then It'd almost seem like there would have to some type of winter precip with it. This has the chance to be very fun. Sadly it'll cause us a lot of trouble with the models i'm sure for a week.

[txagwxman]

16F (2 therms both in radiation shields) off of Spring Cypress and 249 this morning...coldest I have ever seen it at my house. IAH is so weak (21F), they need to move that sensor away from the concrete, it would have read 19F I bet at the old location.

7F at my brother's in NW Travis County. 15F at Conroe, but sensor failed, 18F at Hooks, and 12F in Magnolia (Davis weather station).

I wrapped everything as good as I could, but I am certain my sprinker pipe is frozen.

GEM/Canadian aren't biting at the GFS solution yet next week...a little early still.

[gofrogs]

Whats the 12z runs showing exspecially for the gfs.

[Portastorm]

Whats the 12z runs showing exspecially for the gfs.

As of 9:54 am, it's only through 60 hours. We're looking at the period starting about 168 hours. Probably won't know for another 15 mins or so.

[Ntxw]

Of course the finer details are always unspecified until we get much closer, but the GFS has been pretty consistent run after run with the idea of it. From the eye test of it, looks to be the perfect setup for something significant with the track and strength. I don't see how it gets any better than that should it verify. Pretty rare I assume.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm currently at work, and after reading the above, phoned home to ask my husband to pick up a large bag of Texas oranges and grapefruit. I'm pretty sure we will be looking at awful prices from California after this (the frozen concentrate will be more likely purchased by us then).

[Portastorm]

Through 126 hours and based on the 500mb maps for both the 0z and 12z GFS runs ... it looks like the 12z run has the upper-level energy further north than the 0z run. 0z had it in Mexico south of Arizona. 12z has it probably 100 miles north of the 0z run, close to the border of Arizona/New Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_126l.gif

[drred4]

12.2 for the low here in College Station, went and checked in the country NE of Bryan 11 on the nose. Plenty of ponds freezing over due to the winds subsiding last night.

[Portastorm]

Looks like the energy continues digging into Mexico after all ... not sure how different the 12z run will be from the 0z run. The net effect on Texas may be the same.

Now thru 144 hours.

Edit update: Actually the 12z at 144 hrs is a bit colder with a slightly deeper trough over west Texas and the trajectory of the 1036mb over Colorado edging into west Texas. Hmmm.