Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

So is it possible, with this cold spell, that a sun dog might be seen way down there?

[gofrogs]

Great job portastorm on the updates so what does this all mean would a further north treack be better or worse how can we get more cold air n the storm.

[srainhoutx]

Through 126 hours and based on the 500mb maps for both the 0z and 12z GFS runs ... it looks like the 12z run has the upper-level energy further north than the 0z run. 0z had it in Mexico south of Arizona. 12z has it probably 100 miles north of the 0z run, close to the border of Arizona/New Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_126l.gif

If the GFS is correct, this will be a very deep Low. Take a peek at the 250mb charts. That suggests 200+ kt flight level jet streak from Canada to MX.

[Ntxw]

And there is the cold air\high feeding the cold side to it

[Portastorm]

Thru 162 hrs, the 12z GFS seems to develop the big surface low in the Gulf further offshore and its a bit weaker. Consequently, the model run doesn't show colder air being pulled down into the state to the degree that the 0z run does.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif

[wxman22]

Hmm for some reason the 12z looks about the same at the early stages of the storm but after that its less aggressive with the wrap around precip and cold air seems the low is further offshore(Thats why the track of the Low is going to be critical on who gets what).Of course this is to be expected with the event being 7+ days away we'll just have to watch the trends...

[Portastorm]

Oh yeah ... this is just one model run. No need to abandon ship!

We still have a week to watch this monster.

[srainhoutx]

Notice how slow the 500mb charts move this feature. Bear watching as there may be a severe side to this event as well.

[iorange55]

If it doesn't turn into any kind of winter storm for us that would mean back to back weekends we wasted two elements we needed for a winter storm. First weekend the cold, and second weekend the moisture. I still have faith, though. Given how strong this system is, and it seems that the GFS does try to pull down a cold front around Friday.

[gofrogs]

Its okay as ong as the storm is there this far out its going to change, alot temperature iwse i think this is perfect for model outputs as they are only going to go down.

[wxgirl69]

Its okay as ong as the storm is there this far out its going to change, alot temperature iwse i think this is perfect for model outputs as they are only going to go down.

I am a big fan of cold weather.... So, the models are showing a possible cold front coming down on Friday? Not so good with the models.. Could you tell me what the temps will be based on todays model run.

[gatorcane]

Look how wound up this storm is at 180 hours from the 12Z GFS

[vbhoutex]

Its okay as ong as the storm is there this far out its going to change, alot temperature iwse i think this is perfect for model outputs as they are only going to go down.

I am a big fan of cold weather.... So, the models are showing a possible cold front coming down on Friday? Not so good with the models.. Could you tell me what the temps will be based on todays model run.

Based on the latest run temps would be in the 50's dropping into the 40's.

[Ntxw]

Question, based on averages and such isn't this week or two the coldest period for most of Texas throughout the year?

[srainhoutx]

Question, based on averages and such isn't this week or two the coldest period for most of Texas throughout the year?

December and the start of January are below averages for most of TX. Some locations, much below norms.

[vbhoutex]

Didn't know where to post this so I choose here. We are still below freezing at 31f here at the house, so we haven't been above freezing since around 7 pm thursday. I was just out in the yard checking covered plants(NOT GOOD) and noticed something I haven't seen before. Our ground was saturated from the rain we had before the front came through and when I looked at it while I was wandering, I noticed that it appeared that the water had been brought to the surface and the ground is frozen like a crust. Really strange! Of course the outside faucet that drips has a sheet of ice coming down the wall from it(it is covered by a facucet cover). I guess we will get above freezing for a few hours today, but not by much it appears.

[srainhoutx]

Didn't know where to post this so I choose here. We are still below freezing at 31f here at the house, so we haven't been above freezing since around 7 pm thursday. I was just out in the yard checking covered plants(NOT GOOD) and noticed something I haven't seen before. Our ground was saturated from the rain we had before the front came through and when I looked at it while I was wandering, I noticed that it appeared that the water had been brought to the surface and the ground is frozen like a crust. Really strange! Of course the outside faucet that drips has a sheet of ice coming down the wall from it(it is covered by a facucet cover). I guess we will get above freezing for a few hours today, but not by much it appears.

Just got above freezing up here David. Now at 34. January Thaw! Took the cover off the fish pond to let some sun in for awhile and to feed them. They we happy and alive!

[CaptinCrunch]

Code: Select all

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WACO
HAD ALREADY BESTED ITS RECORD LOW FOR TODAY...JAN 9TH...BY 4
DEGREES WITH AN OVERNIGHT READING OF 11. AS OF 4 AM CST DFW
REMAINED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ITS RECORD LOW OF 12. WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE GREAT
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST...QUICKLY
MODIFYING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20 FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTH TX SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A WARMER
START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD BRING THE REGION BACK INTO THE
50S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH REMAINING
NORTHEAST OF NORTH TX...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BRING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX.
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OVER DEEP SOUTH TX...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LOW LVL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR AND EVENTUALLY MOISTURE
BACK INTO NORTH TX. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT SOME
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTH TX BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH GOOD WAA REGIME IN PLACE KEPT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ALL BRING A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE PLACEMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FAR OUT THE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ITS STRENGTH ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO DID NOT MAKE
ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT BOTH THE 09/00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
BULLSEYE A -3.5 OR STRONGER STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN THE H500
HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THESE
HEIGHTS WILL VERIFY OR NOT...HOWEVER ANY SYSTEM THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THAT STRONG WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 170W AND 40N
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.     CAVANAUGH

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT
TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WACO
HAD ALREADY BESTED ITS RECORD LOW FOR TODAY...JAN 9TH...BY 4
DEGREES WITH AN OVERNIGHT READING OF 11. AS OF 4 AM CST DFW
REMAINED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ITS RECORD LOW OF 12. WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE GREAT
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST...QUICKLY
MODIFYING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20 FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTH TX SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A WARMER
START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD BRING THE REGION BACK INTO THE
50S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH REMAINING
NORTHEAST OF NORTH TX...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BRING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX.
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OVER DEEP SOUTH TX...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING LOW LVL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR AND EVENTUALLY MOISTURE
BACK INTO NORTH TX. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT SOME
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTH TX BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH GOOD WAA REGIME IN PLACE KEPT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS ALL BRING A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE PLACEMENT OF A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FAR OUT THE
DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND ITS STRENGTH ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO DID NOT MAKE
ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT BOTH THE 09/00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
BULLSEYE A -3.5 OR STRONGER STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IN THE H500
HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. IT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THESE
HEIGHTS WILL VERIFY OR NOT...HOWEVER ANY SYSTEM THAT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THAT STRONG WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. [b]THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 170W AND 40N
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  [/b]   CAVANAUGH

My Big Pcture WV Imagery so folks will know what we are talking about...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[iorange55]

12z ECMWF whatever happens either way, that's one huge storm.