Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman22]

It will be interesting to see if the 0z Euro keeps up on its cold trend and if the 0z GFS come back around to a colder system.

[gofrogs]

What does the latest euro say.

[iorange55]

What does the latest euro say.

Doesn't come out till around 12:30 am

[gofrogs]

HAHA the one before that.

[iorange55]

HAHA the one before that.

Go back a few pages people broke it down then.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, it doesn't look like we made it above freezing at the North Texas Regional Airport (old Grayson County Airport and former Perrin AFB Field) today.

NWS 3-day history shows 32 degrees as the high today in Denison.

We went below freezing around 1 a.m. to 2 a.m. on 1/6/10 and we probably won't make it above freezing until noonish or later tomorrow.

So, looks like around an 80 hour sub-freezing weather event if my math is correct.

Low on Friday a.m. was 12 and the low this morning was 10. Forecast low is 13 in the morning.

Not record breaking by any means, but a good old fashioned North Texas cold snap for sure. Just like the good old days of the 1980s!

Also noticed late today that most small lakes and stock tanks in the area are totally iced over.

Only thing missing is a hefty blanket of the white stuff!

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove tonight in the Houston Examiner. Very long and detailed analysis and very well worth the read...

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -700-PM-CT

[srainhoutx]

Thought I would share a post just made by wxman57 on the "local Forum". I know he won't mind...

This system is really getting my attention - but not for its impact here. This potential storm sort of reminds me of what the models predicted back in March of 1993, the "Storm of the Century". But we'll be on the back side of this developing storm. The really bad weather would be out in the Gulf and east of Houston. In 1993, such a low produced a massive squall line in the Gulf that eventually hit Florida with 100kt wind gusts, not to mention the near hurricane-force winds around the low center offshore. North of the low, a band of heavy snow blanketed the Gulf Coast states.

Will something similar happen this time? Could be. But it does appear that the air along the Gulf Coast will be too warm to support anything but rain. Maybe from NE TX across Arkansas and eastward we could see some heavy snow. Possibly farther south east of Texas. Too early to be sure. Sure looks amazing on the models next Fri/Sat.

[wxman22]

0z GFS looks interesting again

[Ntxw]

Pretty much everyone has been on board that a potent storm will develop. The question is how strong and timing\track will determine what and where. I am amazed at the consistency this storm has been shown by the GFS.

[serenata09]

So if this run were to verify, would we be looking at some heavy snow in the DFW area? I've been out of town for every snow event in DFW this winter and was hoping to see at least one before the seasons end.

[Ntxw]

So if this run were to verify, would we be looking at some heavy snow in the DFW area? I've been out of town for every snow event in DFW this winter and was hoping to see at least one before the seasons end.

If things play out right the way it is shown, we may just get more than we bargained for (might not be a good thing).

[wxman22]

So if this run were to verify, would we be looking at some heavy snow in the DFW area?

Well for what its worth yes but its only one run and its WAY to early to start talking about specifics (ie: Will there be snow?How much snow? ect...)

But looking at the GFS precip types it does show heavy rain changing over to moderate-heavy snow across a good chunk of the state for what its worth.

[serenata09]

I understand and thanks for your input. It's always nice to see there is even a small chance of something wintery!

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove tonight in the Houston Examiner. Very long and detailed analysis and very well worth the read...

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... -700-PM-CT

Well the plot thickens somewhat - cue the Jaws music!

Larry seems on-board for a big storm that can transition to snow and ice over portions of Texas.

And then there is the GFS and the big storm it is depicting.

I agree that this appears to have at least some similarities with the 1993 Super Storm that BURIED parts of the south, the southeast, and the Eastern seaboard with one of the worst blizzards of the last century.

Lot of time and uncertainty out there, but if some of this verifies, could potentially be a wild, wild ride coming up in a few days for a lot of people living from here eastward.

Of course that is just my opinion and certainly not a forecast of any kind.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, if memory serves correct, the Super Storm of 1993 buried Birmingham and Atlanta with upwards of a foot of snow. Many places from the mid-Atlantic up through D.C. And the I-95 corridor measured snowfall in the 10 to 25" ranges.

But the snow pretty much missed Texas to the East. Again, purely from memory, but I think there might have been some snow in far East Texas, but that was it.

What I do remember was the howling northerly wind wrapping around that massive low pressure center. Temps fell into the low 20s here, steam was rising off of Lake Texoma, and huge swells of 4 to 6 feet were crashing into the southern shoreline of Texoma under clearing skies.

It was an amazing sight to behold on a lake that can act like an inland ocean at times.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, after a low of 12 degrees on Friday morning and a low of 10 degrees on Saturday morning, I think we'll easily reach our forecasted low of 13 this morning.

Why? I saw 16 twice, 15 once, and 14 once on the way home a short while ago after watching the Cowboys game at my father-in-law's house.

Another long, still, and frigid night here in the Red River Valley...

[iorange55]

I'm good with this

[Ntxw]

Still a way's out but I'm feeling more confident with such consistency. At least for north Texas I would say it's now to pinpoint how much should it come down. Can still change.

[iorange55]

Still a way's out but I'm feeling more confident with such consistency. At least for north Texas I would say it's now to pinpoint how much [b]should[b/] it come down.

I'm not bold enough to say it's a how much thing yet. Lol i'm still scared it will miss us, but it just seems with such a huge storm that I think we'd get some type of wintry precip out of it. I'm thinking a lot of it's going to have to do with the track of it, because it looks as if it will have a cold pocket for a lot of winter precip, let's just hope we're on the right track for it.