Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

ECMWF all rain...552 thickness not cold enough.

the 12z GFS is colder for once, and now the ECMWF 12z is a little warmer. Still a long ways to go, too tiring for me.

[Ntxw]

Looks to be the theme this year, expect all rain up until the 12-36 hours range. No bother to even look till then =P even so that might not be late enough! And it's kind of hard going through the patterns, little cues, and hoo-has of the gfs since it's the new one.

[srainhoutx]

The only thing that stands out is the amount of agreement via all guidance of a potent Southern Stream Upper Low. HPC Final Extened Disco is basically unchanged from this morning...very typical El Nino Pattern ahead...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
115 PM EST MON JAN 11 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 14 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 18 2010

...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST
LATE THIS WEEK...

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AS THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA
TOWARDS THE NORTH POLE...ACTING TO SPEED UP THE WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SPLIT-FLOW
REGIME SEEN SINCE AT LEAST NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL PACIFIC JET CUTTING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AIMING TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD BE MORE POTENT. IN KEEPING WITH THE SPIRIT
OF WHAT IS EVOLVING INTO A MORE TYPICAL FLOW PATTERN DURING EL
NINO CLIMATE REGIMES...WILL FAVOR THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...WHICH FAVORS
THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z GEFS
MEAN/12Z GFS. THE PRESSURES USED A SIMPLE BLEND OF THE 00Z
CANADIAN AND 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH MAINTAINED
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WESTERLIES
ENSURES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREDICTABILITY OF SMALLER DETAILS
AND COULD LEAD TO SWINGS IN THE DETERMINISTIC/MANUAL GUIDANCE FROM
RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY MID TO LATE PERIOD...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW DURING THE LESS PREDICTABLE LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER 2009
TIME FRAME.
...WEST...
A SYSTEM CLIPPING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY TO BRITISH COLUMBIA/VANCOUVER ISLAND...BUT
ONLY A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEMS TRACK WOULD
BRING THE THREAT INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE POSITION OF A
POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WHICH IS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER ONTARIO
FAVORS A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH POINTED INTO CALIFORNIA...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO WETNESS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE GOLDEN STATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM /AND THE WAKE OF THE GULF COAST
SYSTEM/ ITS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD BE LOST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST/EAST...
A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 3-5 SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES ACROSS MEXICO IN BOTH THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURE PATTERN ARE IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 6 AND 4
SIGMAS BELOW NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. THIS ATYPICALLY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE NATURAL TEMPERATURE GRADING IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD LEAD EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME WHICH
SHOULD DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW. IN SOME RESPECTS...THIS IS SIMILAR
TO THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND NOVEMBER 8-9 2009...BUT WITH STRONGER
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND NO TROPICAL CYCLONE INVOLVED. WHILE THE 06Z
GFS WAS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS 12Z RUN HAS MADE
FAVORABLE CHANGES TOWARDS OUR PREVIOUS PREFERENCE. IF THE
GUIDANCE IS SOMEHOW A LITTLE TOO WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MEASURABLE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING WITHIN ITS EXPECTED COMMA HEAD. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST/DEEPENS NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST...PRECIPITATION COULD START AND END AS FROZEN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.

ROTH/JAMES

[Nederlander]

I've given up the hope of any more wintry precip. this season. When its cold its dry, and when its warm its wet.. go figure. Anyways I guess this way if it happens then itll be a surprise, and if it doesnt then I wont have to get my hopes up anymore..

[natlib]

Interesting note in the San Angelo afternoon discussion:

THE OTHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE DROPS TEMPS. THE
GFS COOLS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW ZERO BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
...THE GFS WINTER WEATHER COMPOSITE CHART INDICATES SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA....SUGGESTING A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
ALSO...5 OUT OF THE 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON HOW COLD THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL GET. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
RAIN OR SNOW IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WEST OF A
COLEMAN TO SONORA LINE.

[srainhoutx]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

[rkbjunior]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

If I remember correctly something like that happened around the MLK holiday back in 2007. I remember we got several inches of rain as a strong cold front came through. When the cold air came in behind the front it froze all of the standing water in my backyard and I think we were below freezing for a couple of days.

[Ntxw]

Looks to be a west Texas possible winter event, rain elsewhere as of now. I'd take this pleasant, sunny, and relatively mild weather if it's not going to snow . Funny how after going into a deep freeze you realize how warm 40s and 50s could be

[sphelps8681]

How much rain do you think the Beaumont/Lumberton (East Texas) area would possibly get?

Susan

[Sambucol]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

I'm trying to understand, but am having a hard time. In Southeast Texas, are we looking at winter precipitation this weekend?

[Tireman4]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

I'm trying to understand, but am having a hard time. In Southeast Texas, are we looking at winter precipitation this weekend?

Stay tuned. Just keep watching the news, NWS and the pro mets here.

[srainhoutx]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

I'm trying to understand, but am having a hard time. In Southeast Texas, are we looking at winter precipitation this weekend?

Too soon to know just yet. I will say that the system looks very impressive via WV Imagery out over the Pacific and bear watching closely for a heavy rainfall event as well as a chance that some may see significant wintry weather associated with the Upper Low in TX. We have to remember this is a Surface feature as well as an Upper Level Feature. We are still about 36-48 hours out before RAOBS data is entered into guidance. Stay Tuned!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tireman4]

Going to get interesting folks. A heavy rainfall/Flash Flooding event to wintry weather. Only in TX. Getting rather concerned for Coastal areas as a strong Surface Low looks to form beside the Very Potent Upper Low that will trail slowly behind the surface feature. It's gong to be a wild ride in the days ahead.

I'm trying to understand, but am having a hard time. In Southeast Texas, are we looking at winter precipitation this weekend?

Too soon to know just yet. I will say that the system looks very impressive via WV Imagery out over the Pacific and bear watching closely for a heavy rainfall event as well as a chance that some may see significant wintry weather associated with the Upper Low in TX. We have to remember this is a Surface feature as well as an Upper Level Feature. We are still about 36-48 hours out before RAOBS data is entered into guidance. Stay Tuned!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Yeah that

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

And for those of you who don't know what RAOBS is ... it stands for Radiosonde Observations.

Those are, essentially, the atmospheric data received from weather balloons. Once a storm system starts getting close to the Pacific coastline, RAOBS are collected and we begin to understand the dynamics of what is going on in the atmosphere much better than by simply looking at satellite data.

[DentonGal]

And for those of you who don't know what RAOBS is ... it stands for Radiosonde Observations.

Those are, essentially, the atmospheric data received from weather balloons. Once a storm system starts getting close to the Pacific coastline, RAOBS are collected and we begin to understand the dynamics of what is going on in the atmosphere much better than by simply looking at satellite data.

Thank you Portastorm! One less acronym for me to have to Google!

[greg_kfdm_tv]

How much rain do you think the Beaumont/Lumberton (East Texas) area would possibly get?

Susan

I would expect 2-3 inches of rain from Friday through Saturday....a real good soaking which we don't need.

[iorange55]

I know I said I had no idea on this storm, and I probably don't, but I do wonder about one thing. Looking at the GFS 00z and the other models it seems like they both build a little cold air, and a high sliding down into the rockies, and it just seems like given how strong this system is, it seems reasonable that it'd pull that cold air down. Thus feeding cold air into the back side of the system, and supporting winter precip over much of Texas.



This is probably way off, but oh well..

[Ntxw]

I guess it just depends on how cold the air really is. Also i've noticed the GFS keeps shoving the storm further and further south with each run.

[iorange55]

I guess it just depends on how cold the air really is. Also i've noticed the GFS keeps shoving the storm further and further south with each run.

Yeah thats worrisome, but there is still time for it to change back and forth.

[wxman22]

0z GFS looks "Blah" shall I say more?... Though still too early and models could be underestimating the strength of the system I guess will find out once the system moves ashore the west coast...