SIO : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-EDZANI (07S)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 272
WTIO30 FMEE 101226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 71.4E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 23.7S/71.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 25.0S/71.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 25.4S/71.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 26.2S/69.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 26.7S/67.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 12 UTC: 28.7S/67.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- AND CI=5.0-
SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ON THE WAY. EDZANI HAS LOST ITS EYE PATTERN
ON
ENHANCED-IR IMAGERY SINCE 09Z. MEAN DT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS IS AT 4.5.
LATEST AVAILABLE MW IMAGERY (N19 PASS AT 0851Z) SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM
STILL UNDERGO AN EROSION OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE EYEWALL.
TC HAS TRACK MORE SOUTHWARDS WITH A SLOW DOWN IN SPEED.
EDZANI IS NOW OVER COOLER WATERS AND LATEST AVAILABLE NWP OUTPUTS
FROM
ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR TOMORROW MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN UPGRADED FOR TOMORROW.
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS STR REBUILD
SOUTHWARDS. TRACK SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY TAKE A TEMPORAL
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
COMPONENT AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS. WITH SOME BETTER UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY, WEAKENING TREND IS THEN SLOWERED.
BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT, UKMO AND
ALADIN-REUNION THAT STRONGLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24 AND THEN
BRING
IT ON A WESTWARDS TRACK=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.1S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.9S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.9S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 37.4S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE THE CURRENT POSITION WAS DETERMINED
USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 101226Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. AS THE EYE HAS FILLED, THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO
WEAKENED BY 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BUOYS IN THE VICINITY
OF TC 07S ARE REPORTING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW SINCE THE LAST FORECAST, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
RECENTLY IMPROVED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO HELPING TO RE-ORIENT
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT WILL
ENABLE TC 07S TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY. AS THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, TC 07S IS STILL EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. AFTER TAU 72
ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STEERING
INFLUENCE AS IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS TC 07S TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD, ACCELERATE, AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WITH THE UKMO MODEL
SOLUTION (EGRR) BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

The structure continues to degrade

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 199
WTIO30 FMEE 101844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5S / 71.0E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 24.9S/71.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 25.9S/72.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 26.6S/71.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 27.1S/69.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.4S/68.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 18 UTC: 30.8S/68.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0- AND CI=4.5-
WEAKENING IS STILL ON ITS WAY, AND LATEST AVAILABLE MW IMAGERY (TRMM
10/1254Z, F16 1505Z) CONFIRMS THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
EYEWALL SUGGESTED ON THE FORMER IMAGERY: EYE PATTERN HAS FULLY FADED.
CENTRE APPEARS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. EMBEDDED CENTRE ANALYSIS
ON
THE CLASSIC IMAGERY.
EDZANI IS NOW OVER COOLER WATERS AND LATEST AVAILABLE NWP OUTPUTS
FROM
ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN UPGRADED FOR TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR)
LOCATED IN THE EAST, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTWARDS
TRACK
FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT 24H. BEYOND, A NEW BUILDING STR HAMPERS THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS; EDZANI SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY
SLOW
DOWN AND THE TRA
CK SHOULD TAKE A TEMPORAL WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT AND THEN
RECURVE
AGAIN SOUTHWARDS.
BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT UKMO WHICH
STRONGLY
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24 AND THEN BRINGS IT ON A WESTWARDS
TRACK.=
NNNN

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it made cat 5 then?

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc10/SHEM/07S. ... ckfile.txt

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 776
WTIO30 FMEE 110022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/8/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 71.3E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 25.6S/72.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/01/12 00 UTC: 26.4S/72.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 27.2S/70.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 28.1S/69.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/13 12 UTC: 29.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/14 00 UTC: 31.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+ AND CI=4.0+
CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY, BUT THE
ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRACK IS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
VERY
LAST HOURS. WEAKENING IS STILL ON ITS WAY, AND LATEST AVAILABLE MW
IMAGERY (N18 10/2113Z) SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTRE EXPOSED IN
THE
WEST OF THE DEEP CONV
ECTION.
EDZANI IS NOW OVER COOLER WATERS AND LATEST AVAILABLE NWP OUTPUTS
SHOW AN
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR TOMORROW. CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENING TREND IS
UPGRADED FOR TOMORROW. BEYOND THE WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO WEAKEN UP TO
RANGE
60.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR)
LOCATED IN THE EAST, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTWARDS
TRACK
FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT 12H. BEYOND, A NEW BUILDING STR HAMPERS THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS; EDZANI SHOULD THEREFORE SLOW
DOWN
AND THE TRACK
SHOULD TAKE A TEMPORAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT AND THEN RECURVE
AGAIN SOUTHWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP DO NOT CONSIDER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE RANGE
72.
BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 802
WTIO30 FMEE 110634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/8/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 71.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 240 NO: 240
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 25.8S/72.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 26.3S/71.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 27.1S/69.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/01/13 18 UTC: 30.2S/67.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/14 06 UTC: 32.5S/69.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRACK IS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
VERY
LAST HOURS. WEAKENING IS STILL ON ITS WAY, AND LATEST AVAILABLE
SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTRE EXPOSED AT LESS THAN
30MN IN
THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
EDZANI IS NOW OVER COOLER WATERS (26.5OC).
LATEST AVAILABLE NWP OUTPUTS SUGGEST A DEACREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
AFTER
RANGE 12 AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY 06TU. CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENING SHOULD BE
RATHER SLOW OVER THAT PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR)
LOCATED IN THE EAST, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTWARDS
TRACK
FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT 12H. BEYOND, A NEW BUILDING STR HAMPERS THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS; EDZANI SHOULD THEREFORE SLOW
DOWN
AND THE TRACK
SHOULD TAKE A TEMPORAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT AND THEN RECURVE
AGAIN SOUTHWARDS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER RANGE 48. BEYOND 60H,
SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Bye!

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 25.8S 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.5S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.1S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.5S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DECREASING
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, TC 07S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED DUE TO BOTH LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES (LESS
THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS.
CURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A
SECOND RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING
EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND TURN BACK TO THE SOUTWEST. TC 07S SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT FURTHER ENCOUNTERS LOW SSTS AND HIGH VWS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST AND IT
ALSO INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD STILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96 IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

[Cookie]

no one answered my question on weather it got to legendary cat 5

[HURAKAN]

no one answered my question on weather it got to legendary cat 5

Officially the winds went up to 120 knots (10-min), according to the link below, between 10-min and 1-min winds there is a 12% increase in the latter one. Therefore, winds at 1-min would have been 144 knots (1-min). Therefore, if this is correct, it was a category 5.

Link - http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 323
WTIO30 FMEE 111831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/8/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/11 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 73.2E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 85 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 470 NO: 200
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 26.3S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 27.2S/70.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.4S/68.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/13 18 UTC: 30.2S/68.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/14 06 UTC: 32.4S/69.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/14 18 UTC: 34.5S/73.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=3.0+
LATEST WV AND IR IMAGERY AND SSMIS PASS OF 1451Z SUGGEST THAT TC
EDZANI
HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER SYSTEM IS STILL
ANALYSED
TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH A 0.3 CURVED BAND LOCATED
RATHER FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER FOR FT=DT=2.0.
PRENSENT FIX IS BASED ON SSMIS PASS AT 1451Z AND LATEST IR IMAGERY
FROM
MET7. SYSTEM HAS MADE AN EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS DRIFT OVER THE LAST HOURS
STILL UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
ITS
NORTHEAST. IT SEEMS TO HAVE SLOW DOWN AGAIN. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THE
SUBTROPICAL R
IDGE SOUTH-WEST OF EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND
ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BEYOND.
AVERAGE WIND SPEED SHOULD REMAIN BY THE ORDER OF THE GALE FORCE 40KT
OVER
THE FORECASTED PERIOD ACCORDING TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
THAT
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 061
WTIO30 FMEE 120042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/8/20092010
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/12 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0S / 72.4E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 150 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 330 SE: 465 SO: 700 NO: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/12 12 UTC: 26.5S/70.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 27.7S/68.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2010/01/13 12 UTC: 29.3S/67.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/14 00 UTC: 31.5S/68.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/14 12 UTC: 33.9S/70.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/15 00 UTC: 36.7S/76.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE CENTER HAS VANISHED
OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS. BASED ON THAT AND ON WV IMAGERY (WHICH SHOWS SOME
DRY
UPPER LEVEL WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC), A 20:32Z AMSRE PASS, SYSTEM IS
CONSIDERED TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL NOW. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT
17:34Z
SUGGEST THAT TH
E WINDFIELDS HAS EXPANDED AND THAT THE MAX WINDS ARE IN THE 40-45 KT
RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER (20-30 KT) WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS
AROUND THE CENTER (EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE).
18Z POSITION HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO 25.9S/72.8E ACCORDING TO CLEARER
SATELLITE DATA (METOP PASS OF 17:55Z). RECENT FIX SHOW THAT THE
FORECASTED WESTWARD MOTION HAS BEGUN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED
TO
THE SOUTH OF EDZANI IS NOW THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MID-LAT TRO
UGH, EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND
ACCELERATE.
AVERAGE WIND SPEED SHOULD REMAIN BY THE ORDER OF THE GALE TO STORM
FORCE
OVER THE FORECASTED PERIOD ACCORDING TO NWP OUTPUTS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
THAT
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 435
WTIO30 FMEE 121207
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/8/20092010
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-EDZANI)
2.A POSITION 2010/01/12 AT 1200 UTC :
26.4S / 70.9E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 110 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 500 SO: 600 NO: 230
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/13 00 UTC: 27.3S/68.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2010/01/13 12 UTC: 28.8S/67.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2010/01/14 00 UTC: 31.2S/67.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/14 12 UTC: 33.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/15 00 UTC: 37.0S/75.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/15 12 UTC: 42.0S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MAX WINDS ARE IN THE 45/50 KT RANGE FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER (20-30 KT) WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE
CENTER (EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE).
THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF EDZANI IS NOW THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12H.
DUE TO
A NEW MID-LAT TROUGH PASSING SOUTH, EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND ACCELERATE.
AVERAGE WIND SPEED SHOULD REMAIN BY THE ORDER OF THE STORM FORCE OVER
THE
FORECASTED PERIOD DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
THAT
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 26.1S 72.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 72.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.2S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 72.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 975 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK FRONTAL SIGNATURE WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH SOME
WEAK CONVECTION REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE
WARM FRONTAL ZONE. AN 11/1738Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AN 11/21Z
AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY, TYPICAL OF ETT,
WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE LOW OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS
CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE ASCAT
DATA. TC 07S HAS SLOWED AND TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS CUT OFF, TEMPORARILY, FROM THE UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK. TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE ETT AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 12. TC O7S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 40 KNOT INTENSITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SST, AIDED BY WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE ETT PROCESS IS UNUSUAL
AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE EVENT DEEP CONVECTION RE-
DEVELOPS OVER THE LLCC BUT THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY. BASED ON
THE LLCC SIGNATURE, THE PREVIOUS DISSIPATION SCENARIO WAS ASSESSED
AS UNLIKELY AS WELL WITH EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIKELY AFTER TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!