SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[PTrackerLA]

This has got to be nearing some kind of record for Lafayette, this mornings low of 21 was the 7th consecutive freeze at the airport (not yet listed below). We are predicted to reach freezing tonight and Tuesday night making 9 consecutive nights! Take into account a temp of 33 on the 2nd and 3rd and 34 on the 4th and many places around here have been freezing the past 10 nights! The airport usually has a warm bias so outlying areas easily reached freezing those nights. We are 14.5 degrees BELOW average for this month so far as well. I've seen it get colder here but I cannot remember such a long lasting arctic outbreak for this area. Usually we get 2 or 3 freezes then it warms up. Given the wintry precip in early December and now this month it's easy to say this is our most severe winter since the 1990's.


HI LO AVG DEPT
1 53 38 46 -6
2 53 33 43 -9
3 51 33 42 -10
4 40 34 37 -15
5 45 27 36 -16
6 52 28 40 -12
7 52 31 42 -10
8 33 26 30 -22
9 38 21 30 -22
10 41 20 31 -21

[Jagno]

DH was off of work today and spent most of it repairing busted water pipes at his parents home and our middle sons house. The minute the temp went above freezing and the pipes began thawing they started bursting all over town. What's worse southern belles and beau's is that I've read several reports on other forums today that we have entered a cooling cycle and that this trend is expected to continue for at least another decade. Looks like we are going to have to upgrade our heavy winter windbreakers and Christmas short sets for real winter clothing at this rate. We are currently at 36 degrees but expected to drop to 30 overnight. Hey, it's a warming trend. LOL

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Vbhoutex this is what I'd suggest doing for the time you have a chance of frost in your forecast and for the plants that are in pots (we do it many times in the spring and fall and sometimes summer): http://davesgarden.com/community/forums ... st_1771272 (I'm pretty sure you can see the first posting that I made and a small thumbnail of the pic).

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Significant storm system to impact the area at the end of the week.



Old cold arctic high pressure moving off to the east this morning with weak onshore flow returning. Weak trough will be moving into SW TX today and Wednesday with moisture starting to return. Powerful upper level storm system will quickly follow into NW MX and then deepen over NE MX and SW TX on Thursday producing a threat of very heavy rains, strong winds, and coastal flooding along the TX coast.



Moisture return will begin in earnest Wednesday as southerly flow overruns the retreating cold dome at the surface. Isentropic processes begin to increase clouds and possibly light rainfall by Wednesday evening. Early Thursday the potent upper storm over MX begins to close off from the main flow while spreading strong forcing eastward over the TX coastal areas. At the surface an intense coastal surface low will develop off the lower TX coast under deep layer forcing and developing deep convection. GFS has trended weaker and more S and E with this feature over the past 24 hours however the ECMWF and CMC show the low much closer to the coast. At this point will split the difference on the tracks and show the system of 1002-1006mb tracking from near Padre Island to offshore of Matagorda Bay and then ENE toward offshore of Sabine Pass. Development of intense convection over the offshore waters may help to deepen this surface low even more as the GFS was showing yesterday (997mb). Very deep upper low pulls across on Saturday as coastal low moves on into LA. Expect extensive wrap around clouds and rainfall under strong cold air advection regime on the backside of the surface low. Critical thickness are not cold enough for anything frozen and will keep everything as a cold rain at this time.



Impacts:



Rainfall:

System looks very wet with moisture levels increasing to around 180% above mid Jan normals. This would normally raise red flags for a flooding threat as the magic % above normal is around 200%. PWS rising to near 1.2 inches by early Friday along with maximum lift from 600am to 600pm Friday point toward a very wet day across the southern ½ of the area. Feel bands of heavy rainfall will move SW to NE over the region on the north side of the coastal low as it passes offshore. Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches look reasonable with isolated totals of 5 inches possible. Lack of significant rains in December as allowed grounds at least up top to dry some however given the time of year and lack of any vegetation there will be good run-off produced by this event. 3-hour flash flood guidance is around 3” along the coastal counties and closer to 4 inches over the inland counties while 6-hour guidance is around 3.5” over the coastal sections and 4.0 inches elsewhere. Current HPC QPF amounts do not exceed the shorter duration guidance, but I suspect given the amount of moisture and dynamics with this system several hours of .5-1.5 inches over a 24 hour period could run up some decent totals and result in some good run-off. Appears the event will be more of a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over a large area which tends to focus more issues toward the larger river basins than the smaller creeks and bayous. Too early to determine for sure the exact location of the heaviest rainfall and totals.



Coastal Flooding:

Fairly intense coastal low event for winter along the TX coast. Conditions will be similar to a tropical storm based on the GFS and ECMWF solutions this morning. Surface pressure falls into the low to middle 1000’s support very breezy conditions over the waters and along the coast. Looks good for sustained gale conditions in all of our coastal waters starting late Thursday and continuing into early Saturday with the possibly of border line storm conditions (55mph+) for the outer waters on Friday especially if the previous sub 1000mb GFS progs turn out to be correct. Strong E to ENE winds on the north side of the surface low will result in long fetch wind flow toward the coast, favorable Ekman transport, and building swells. Extra-tropical storm surge model run off the GFS with its track suggests water level rise of 1-2 feet along the beaches. Expect overall tides to run 2-3 feet above normal Thursday PM-Friday PM, and this could cause some issued on the very vulnerable Bolivar peninsula, west end of Galveston, upper Brazoria County, and the west sides of Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Coastal Flood Watch will likely be needed on Wednesday to cover this aspect.



Winds:

Breezy easterly winds will develop Thursday and increase into Friday and Saturday while over time backing to the NE and eventually the NW as the coastal low moves into and pass the region. Coastal winds will be sustained in the 25-30mph range with gust to 40mph while inland winds of 15-25mph with gust to 35mph will be likely especially on Friday.



As additional model runs become available changes to these impacts will be made. Track and intensity of the coastal surface low will result in changing impacts over the next 48 hours.

[vbhoutex]

Vbhoutex this is what I'd suggest doing for the time you have a chance of frost in your forecast and for the plants that are in pots (we do it many times in the spring and fall and sometimes summer): http://davesgarden.com/community/forums ... st_1771272 (I'm pretty sure you can see the first posting that I made and a small thumbnail of the pic).

I appreciate the advice. I did put the one that was in a pot in the garage and covered it and it did survive. It was the poinsettia. The hibiscus are badly damaged, but I think if I cut them way back when we get warmer they will come back. Any suggestions concerning them for the time being?
We're just so glad to have a "heat wave" going on here with highs approaching 60 for a couple of days. Only went down to 29.8ºf last night here at the house.

[shibumi]

I appreciate the advice. I did put the one that was in a pot in the garage and covered it and it did survive. It was the poinsettia. The hibiscus are badly damaged, but I think if I cut them way back when we get warmer they will come back. Any suggestions concerning them for the time being?
We're just so glad to have a "heat wave" going on here with highs approaching 60 for a couple of days. Only went down to 29.8ºf last night here at the house.

Hibiscus - they will grow back from the base in the spring, but you might consider not pruning them until the last freeze and the dead wood gives a slight amount of protection to the lower parts of the plant...or you can prune some now and cover with pine straw or mulch...

It will be interesting to see what comes back here in SELA (north of the lake) as the ground froze to at least an inch or two yesterday overnight....that is a first for a long time for these parts....

[southerngale]

BPT shows -14.5 departure from normal temps so far in January. With it warming up, that number will change soon, but wow. It's been so cold lately. KFDM WeatherNET Live (Weatherbug) station just to my west had a low of 28° and the one just to my east had a low of 29° (toasty! lol) - tonight's low is only forecast to be 32°. Let the warm-up begin! Then bring back the cold, after a thawing out break, with some snow.

[vbhoutex]

I appreciate the advice. I did put the one that was in a pot in the garage and covered it and it did survive. It was the poinsettia. The hibiscus are badly damaged, but I think if I cut them way back when we get warmer they will come back. Any suggestions concerning them for the time being?
We're just so glad to have a "heat wave" going on here with highs approaching 60 for a couple of days. Only went down to 29.8ºf last night here at the house.

Hibiscus - they will grow back from the base in the spring, but you might consider not pruning them until the last freeze and the dead wood gives a slight amount of protection to the lower parts of the plant...or you can prune some now and cover with pine straw or mulch...

It will be interesting to see what comes back here in SELA (north of the lake) as the ground froze to at least an inch or two yesterday overnight....that is a first for a long time for these parts....

I think I will wait till the last freeze to prune. thanks for the advice.
I know the ground froze here too since even bare ground was crunchy instead of just obviously wet like it was before the freeze started. Not sure how deep it went, but we were below freezing for at least 42 hours at our house and have gone below freezing every night since Thursday with the lowest being 15.2F.

[Jagno]

I don't know about you but I thoroughly enjoyed the sunshine today. About a week of this and all would be well in my world. Of course, that's just a pipe dream as we are watching the humidity levels rise as we usher in the next deluge of rain. My plants will be pruned next month. I want to make sure I don't have to do it twice.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts this morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
418 AM CST THU JAN 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF S AND SE
TX THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY YESTERDAY EVENING WAS A RESULT
OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW WEAKENING OVER THE
ARKLATEX. SCT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SE TX FOR MUCH OF
TODAY AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NOW OVER THE S ROCKIES AND IT APPEARS A FAIRLY POTENT JET
STREAK IS DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY AND INTO FRI
MORNING.

THE MAIN FORECAST DETAILS TO IRON OUT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE GULF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESO LOW OR
SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE. AT THE SAME TIME ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
ALSO BE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH S TX AND BE
A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT NE OVER S TX AND THE TX GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF FRI. THE GFS CONTINUES A TREND OF
KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF. THE
FORECAST WILL GO MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH NOT ONLY KEEPS PRECIP
IN THE GULF BUT ALSO HAS WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER TX DUE TO THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. FLOODING STILL SHOULD NOT BE
TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT MOISTURE MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH WITH PRECIP WATER
AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO LOUISIANA BY
LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP
THAT LINGERS OVER SE TX.

STRONG EAST WINDS ON FRI STILL SHOULD ELEVATE TIDES A GOOD 1-2
FEET BUT OVERALL TIDE LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD WINDS BECOME ENHANCED WITH A
MORE INTENSE SFC LOW...TIDE LEVELS MAY BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING.

I dunno, but with the repeated Meso Low showing up, one has to ponder where this feature will actually occur. Will the heavier rain be further SW near Corpus and into C Central TX or just abit closer to SE TX? Time will tell, but how often have we seen these situations turn out differently than guidance suggested at this range. Regardless, looks rather dynamic to me.

[JenBayles]

I appreciate the advice. I did put the one that was in a pot in the garage and covered it and it did survive. It was the poinsettia. The hibiscus are badly damaged, but I think if I cut them way back when we get warmer they will come back. Any suggestions concerning them for the time being?
We're just so glad to have a "heat wave" going on here with highs approaching 60 for a couple of days. Only went down to 29.8ºf last night here at the house.

Hibiscus - they will grow back from the base in the spring, but you might consider not pruning them until the last freeze and the dead wood gives a slight amount of protection to the lower parts of the plant...or you can prune some now and cover with pine straw or mulch...

It will be interesting to see what comes back here in SELA (north of the lake) as the ground froze to at least an inch or two yesterday overnight....that is a first for a long time for these parts....

Finally something I actually know about! If the hibiscus is a grafted hybrid variety, chances are good that the graft is dead unless it was protected with a lot of mulch and watered well before the freeze. Chances are also good that whatever comes up from the roots will be an entirely different plant. The rootstock is usually a very hardy variety that has a red flower. Same thing can also happen with roses.

[Stormcenter]

Wow if we would have only had this coming at us last week when the bitter cold air was already in place. Can you imagine what the weather would have been like?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Nederlander]

I thought it was supposed to rain all day today? I havent seen a drop.. just a lot of clouds

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I thought it was supposed to rain all day today? I havent seen a drop.. just a lot of clouds

Another big bust. Over here in SE LA the mid afternoon update came out for us prediciting 2-4 inches of rain. Forecast was for rain all night tonight, tomorrow, and into tomorrow night. We got light rain for 3 1/2 hours this afternoon. The back edge is just some 20 miles away from clearing us tonight. No rain filling in on radar between here and Houston. Was expecting a really wet day in N.O. tomorrow for the big game now it looks like it will be clear

[attallaman]

It's raining pretty good here tonight but not much wind. Most of the area mets were saying last night to expect gale force winds here today. I guess the winds will come in later tonight or if not tonight then sometime tomorrow. Good weather for ducks. I just hope we don't get as much rain here as San Antonio got.

[attallaman]

The wind is beginning to blow this early morning, currently blowing at 17 mph out of the ESE, gusting to 33, it's definitely beginning to blow outside. Warming up outside, currently 57F.

[Jagno]

Below is an excerp from the NWS for our area.

WEDNESDAY...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[southerngale]

hmm Jagno, I hadn't really looked at anything, other than seeing we had high rain chances. SPC has us in a slight risk for Wednesday. This is from 1:30 a.m. this morning and we'll get an update in a few hours, but anyhow, here's the map from then.






http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

[srainhoutx]

HGX forecast...for a laugh...

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

TXZ213-251030-
HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...PASADENA...
TOMBALL
431 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE NIGHT THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WARMER. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT IN THE EVENING
INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WIND
CHILL READINGS 110 BELOW TO 120 BELOW ZERO.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. BREEZY. MUCH COOLER. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove tonight in the Houston Examiner...

Discussion
(Relevant Graphics Below The Text)

The trend to the forecast has turned colder, but those wishing for warmer days may be pleased by events in the near term. A rather impressive storm hitting California (yes, again....) will drop into new Mexico on Tuesday night before recurving into North Texas and southern Oklahoma by Thursday morning. The gradient behind the departing cold high pressure will allow for air from the Gulf of Mexico to return to Houston, making for warmer temperatures (with increasing humidity) through Thursday afternoon. But the old caveat applies here: be careful what you wish for!

When storm energy (the technical term is 500MB vorticity) starts out over an expansive area and contracts to the mesoscale, the impacts may be disastrous if the atmosphere is unstable and the system undergoes acceleration. If I am reading the numerical models correctly, that will be the case in Houston on Thursday. Lifted indices will be as low as -5, and a linear expression (or tail) of the low will smash through E TX by 8 PM on Thursday. It is too early to call for a definitive outline of convective potential, but I would not be surprised to see a severe weather threat in the Bayou City on January 28.

After that weather threat recedes into history, it is back to unseasonable chill once again. The Pacific Ocean satellite views show the broad disturbed area near the International Dateline starting to hook up with the polar westerlies once more. All of the computer outlooks show very impressive +PNA and -NAO blocking signals with a strong subtropical jet stream. I realize that sounds like the proverbial broken record, but then again this winter has consistently delivered doses of cold to Texas through these mechanisms.

Only 34 days to "Meteorological Spring".....

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ry-25-2010