WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (EDZANI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 26.7S 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.7S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.3S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.3S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS WRAPPED INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE AMSU
CROSS-SECTIONS, WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED MID-LEVEL WARM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. BOTH THE 12/0454Z AND 12/1717Z ASCAT IMAGES AND
850MB VORTICITY PRODUCTS INDICATE A SYMMETRIC, 40-45 KNOT TROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS ALSO SHOW A
STRENGTHENING, SYMMETRIC DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ALSO SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE LLCC, HOWEVER, ANTICYCLONIC POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM (WITH WESTERLY FLOW INHIBITING OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT) POSSIBLY HINTING AT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER-LOW. RE-ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM BEGAN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
PROCESS BUT DID NOT COMPLETE ETT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED DUE TO A
TRANSITORY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS PRODUCING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 07S HAS MAINTAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DESPITE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTER AND HAS SLOWLY RE-
CONSOLIDATED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAVE SEPARATED AND TRACKED AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. EARLIER
INDICATIONS OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS THE TROPICAL (WARM CORE) ASSESSMENT AND REISSUANCE OF
WARNINGS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT TRACK AS WELL AS THE FORECAST AND TIMING OF ETT. TC 07S
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE TRANSITORY RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
CURVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFTER TAU 24 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
COOLER, INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SST (25-20C) DUE PRIMARILY TO THE
GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
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