CORAL SEA : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEVILLE

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 14 January 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 1005 hPa, is located within the monsoon trough in the
northern Gulf of Carpentaria to the east of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to
remain slow moving as the monsoon trough strengthens over the Arafura Sea and
north Gulf of Carpentaria over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Friday: very low,
Saturday: low,
Sunday: moderate.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%,
Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 15 January 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low, 1003 hPa, is located within the monsoon trough in the
northern Gulf of Carpentaria, near 11.5S 138.5 E, about 200 kilometres to the
east northeast of Nhulunbuy, at 9:30 am CST. The low has been slowly drifting
east northeast and is expected to remain slow moving over the weekend while
deepening in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria.
The low may start to move southeast towards Cape York Peninsular as the monsoon
westerlies strengthen over the Arafura Sea and north Gulf of Carpentaria later
on Sunday and early next week, and may develop into a tropical cyclone if it
remains over water.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Saturday: low,
Sunday: moderate,
Monday: high if low remains over water.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%,
Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Sanibel]

Australia slightly disturbed this year. Swirl in Carpenteria there.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1259 UTC 16/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 137.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 11.8S 137.5E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 999
+24: 17/1200: 11.9S 137.6E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 18/0000: 12.0S 137.9E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 18/1200: 12.4S 139.2E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 988
+60: 19/0000: 12.8S 140.6E: 200 [375]: 060 [110]: 981
+72: 19/1200: 12.9S 141.8E: 250 [465]: 060 [110]: 981
REMARKS:
Much of the deep convection near the centre of the low has weakened and so a
Data T could not be obtained, though a centre can still be located on radar.
Convection has concentrated closer to the low level centre when compared with 24
hours ago so has been given a slow developing trend.

Environment expected to remain/become favourable though low will be slow moving
for next 24 hours before it interacts with a northwest monsoonal surge which
will cause it to move towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Saturday 16 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Elcho Island to Cape Shield in the NT and Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island in
Queensland.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
120 kilometres northeast of Nhulunbuy and
470 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and
moving west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours.
If the system remains slow moving, gales could develop early on Monday morning
between Cape Shield and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy.
If the system tracks eastwards, gales could develop on Tuesday morning between
Pormpuraaw and Thursday Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 137.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Sunday 17 January [5:30 am EST
Sunday 17 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 16 January 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low, 1002 hPa, was located in the northern Gulf of
Carpentaria, near 11.1S 138.4E at 9:30 am CST and was moving south southwest at
3km/h.

Likelihood of this system becoming tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday: high,
Monday: high,
Tuesday: high.

TC Advices are also being issued by Darwin for this system, available on
telephone 1300 659 211.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%,
Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1932 UTC 16/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.5S
Longitude: 137.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [271 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 11.6S 137.4E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 1002
+24: 17/1800: 11.7S 137.8E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 18/0600: 12.0S 138.8E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 995
+48: 18/1800: 12.3S 140.1E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 19/0600: 12.5S 141.6E: 200 [375]: 060 [110]: 983
+72: 19/1800: 12.7S 143.1E: 250 [465]: 040 [075]: 996
REMARKS:
Current fix poor based on Gove radar. Deep convection has redeveloped near the
centre of the system in recent hours, with slow increase in organization.
Dvorak analysis of 1730Z MTSAT image was unable to obtain data T number. MET
2.0. FT/CI 1.5 based on PT of 1.5. Note transient appearance of better
structure on 1630Z image, with possible DT 2.5 based on 0.4 spiral wrap, but
this level of organization does not seem to have persisted.

Environment is favourable for development with low vertical shear, and
increasing vorticity expected in the trough with increasing monsoon westerlies.
Forecast development at standard rate.

Environment expected to remain/become favourable though low will be slow moving
for next 24 hours before it interacts with a northwest monsoonal surge which
will cause it to move towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Sunday 17 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, in the NT, and Pormpuraaw to
Thursday Island in Queensland.

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
90 kilometres north northeast of Nhulunbuy and
545 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and
moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours.

The system is expected to be slow moving until Monday, and GALES could develop
on Monday between Cape Shield and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy, as the
system intensifies into a cyclone.

The system is then expected to track eastwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria
towards Cape York, and GALES could develop on Tuesday morning between Pormpuraaw
and Thursday Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 137.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Sunday 17 January [5:30 pm EST
Sunday 17 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:28 pm CST [10:58 pm EST] Sunday 17 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island in Queensland.

The Cyclone WATCH from Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, has
been cancelled.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
380 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and
215 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and
moving east at 9 kilometres per hour.

Monsoon gales are expected to develop to the north of the tropical low, which
may develop into a Tropical Cyclone early on Tuesday morning. GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours.

GALES are no longer expected to develop between Cape Shield and Elcho Island,
including Nhulunbuy.

The low is expected to continue to track steadily eastwards across the Gulf of
Carpentaria towards Cape York Peninsula, where GALES may develop early on
Tuesday morning between Pormpuraaw and Thursday Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.4 degrees South 138.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Monday 18 January [5:30 am EST
Monday 18 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST] Monday 18 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island in Queensland.

At 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
300 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and
260 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy and
moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

Monsoon gales are expected to develop to the north of the tropical low.
However, on the most likely track, the tropical low will have moved over Cape
York Peninsula before reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

Should the tropical low move more slowly than expected across the Gulf of
Carpentaria, then there is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing
during Tuesday. If this occurs, GALES may develop later on Tuesday between
Pormpuraaw and Thursday Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 139.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Monday 18 January [11:30 am EST
Monday 18 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1923 UTC 17/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 139.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [109 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 12.5S 140.7E: 060 [110]: 025 [045]: 1002
+24: 18/1800: 12.8S 142.4E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 1002
+36: 19/0600: 13.0S 143.9E: 120 [225]: 025 [045]: 1001
+48: 19/1800: 13.1S 145.1E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1001
+60: 20/0600: 13.5S 145.8E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 20/1800: 13.7S 146.3E: 250 [465]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
Current fix poor based on radar and 1730 UTC MTSAT IR image. Note uncertainty
due to distance from radars and lack of good surface observations. Convection
has redeveloped near the centre in recent hours. Organization remains poor,
with DT=1.5 based on 0.25 spiral wrap. MET 1.0 and PT 1.5, with FT constrained
to 1.0 after 0.5 FT at 1430UTC. Maximum wind kept at 25 knots based on
peripheral ship observation.

The upper ridge has moved north of the system, with increasing vertical shear
over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. Although the environment seems generally
favourable, only slow development is forecast based on past lack of development.


Forecast track based on consensus of 1200 UTC UK, GFS, TXLAPS and ACCESS-R and
0000 UTC EC and JMA is consistent with recent movement and expected steering
from increased monsoon flow to the north and the upper trough lying over
Australia. This would bring the low over Cape York within 24 hours, which would
not allow sufficent time for cyclone to develop.

The only prospect for development in Gulf of Carpentaria is if eastward movement
is significantly slower than forecast. Once the system moves clear of Cape York
in the longer term, there is potential for intensification in the Coral Sea.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0131 UTC 18/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 139.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/1200: 12.5S 141.0E: 075 [140]: 025 [045]: 1003
+24: 19/0000: 12.8S 142.7E: 105 [195]: 025 [045]: 1004
+36: 19/1200: 12.9S 144.3E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1001
+48: 20/0000: 13.2S 144.9E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 20/1200: 13.5S 145.5E: 220 [405]: 045 [085]: 991
+72: 21/0000: 14.0S 146.1E: 265 [490]: 055 [100]: 985
REMARKS:
Current fix poor based on 2330 UTC MTSAT visible image. Convection has
redeveloped in recent hours. Organisation has improved slightly, however data T
unable to be determined. FT=1.5 based on PT of 1.5 adjusted from MET of 2.0.

The upper ridge has moved north of the system, with increasing vertical shear
over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. Although the environment seems generally
favourable, only slow development is forecast based on past lack of development.

Forecast track based on consensus of 1200 UTC UK, GFS, TXLAPS, ACCESS-T, EC and
JMA is consistent with recent movement and expected steering from increased
monsoon flow to the north and the upper trough lying over Australia. This would
bring the low over Cape York within 18 hours, which would not allow sufficent
time for a cyclone to develop.

Once the system moves clear of Cape York in the longer term, there is potential
for intensification in the Coral Sea.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system issued by Darwin TCWC unless
it reintensifies.

[HURAKAN]

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[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
147.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 192100Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOW POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
191134Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A TIGHT LLCC WITH 25-KT WINDS. BASED ON
AUSTRALIAN OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.