Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[hurrican19]

Good! I am getting married on Lake Travis in September and need for it to fill up!

[TexasStorm]

They have backed way off the amount of rain for the DFW area. They were saying 2in over the next three days and now they are saying less than .25 of an inch. And early next week is looking very spring like for North Texas. Is it too early to bring out the "Winters over" signs

[srainhoutx]

They have backed way off the amount of rain for the DFW area. They were saying 2in over the next three days and now they are saying less than .25 of an inch. And early next week is looking very spring like for North Texas. Is it too early to bring out the "Winters over" signs :)

IMHO, Yes. Larry Cosgrove had some thoughts that TX folk will find worth the read in the Houston Examiner last night. Winter is far from over as Late January into February continues to look shall we say, "interesting"...

As it turns out, the very aggressive treatment the numerical models applied to the developing storm over Mexico may be correct. Once again, the computer outlooks show a very unstable regime over the Bay of Campeche being entrained into the deepening low, shifting the center eastward under a convective complex. Houston should see moderate rain and some very gusty winds, but the predictive equations say the worst of this system will be concentrated to our immediate south (strong thunderstorms below a Matagorda to Eagle Pass line) and to our east (heavy rains along the Interstate 10 corridor east of Lafayette LA and up along the Atlantic Coastal Plain).

The Bayou City will be miserable through the first part of the weekend. Cloudy, dreary and rainy conditions with gusty winds and cool temperatures should persist into Saturday afternoon. The developing storm will deepen, head across the Southeast and relocate off of the Virginia Capes. Mixed precipitation and some icing may be an issue in Appalachia and the Piedmont, with the west side of the Interstate 95 corridor from Fredericksburg VA to Norwalk CT at risk of slush or glazing. The rain/ice/snow division is tricky, but I am fairly certain now that a belt from WV into the southern portion of New England and Nova Scotia are in line for a quick hit of heavy wet snow. Note the track of the system will allow for sudden infiltration of the cold dome in Quebec.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a warm spell (yes, the January Thaw....) will arrive on Sunday, with both Dr. King's Birthday and Tuesday likely to see readings in the 70s (F) for Houston. I suspect that the surge of warmer air will only last until January 21 - 22, as the model sets have been trending colder by the 11 - 15 day forecast period. A prominent Kelvin wave straddling an area from Sarawak to the International Dateline should link with the polar westerlies again (see the connection withe the strong storm over the western Pacific Ocean?), creating a window for +PNA and -AO ridging, much like what is shown on the 240 hour ECMWF outlook for North America.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ry-14-2010

[srainhoutx]

For those interested, I started a new Topic in the USA Weather Area to cover the expected Winter El Nino Event to affect CA and points E...

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=107382

[southerngale]

Good! I am getting married on Lake Travis in September and need for it to fill up!

Congratulations!

[Nederlander]

wow... looks like this thread should be retitled:

[DentonGal]

ROTFL! R.I.P. Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

This thread will probably be quiet for the next week or so up until end of the month, should pick up by then

[hurrican19]

Good! I am getting married on Lake Travis in September and need for it to fill up!

Congratulations!

Thanks

[Portastorm]

Now, THIS is more like it ... the 0z GFS@ 360 hours.

[txagwxman]

What we lack in the long range is the -NAO...looks like stratospheric warming event will push the AO into negative territory again in the long range. Where da snow? Remember the GFS a few days ago depicting snow across W. TX...currently in the 50s in San Angelo.

[srainhoutx]

Well there is some hope... I would enjoy hearing your thoughts on the El Nino event ahead out to our west. Looks to be like nothing we seen since the 90's out there. There is a Topic in the USA Weather area if you care to chime in...

NAO Ensemble Means

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... ensm.shtml

PNA Ensemble Means

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... .sprd2.gif

[gboudx]

Larry Cosgrove continues to offer hope after this January Thaw.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

Things should heat up nicely in Texas next week, as the January Thaw asserts itself over the Old South. What is interesting, though is that while all of the computer models had previously forecast widespread warmth over the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, the outlook now is for a shot of polar values to take hold north of 35 N Latitude. The signs in the Pacific Ocean strongly suggest a return to a highly amplified 500MB longwave pattern in the last week of January (check out the linkage, strength, and size of the Kelvin wave near the International Dateline if you do not believe me).

So enjoy the sun, and the warmth, when it gets here. Because odds are, winter wants to visit Houston again soon!

[Ntxw]

Not to be negative, but lets hope something does play in February because after that the window of opportunity pretty much closes for the southern half of Texas (it is a short month after all) while chances north of I-20 slowly diminish.

[Portastorm]

What we lack in the long range is the -NAO...looks like stratospheric warming event will push the AO into negative territory again in the long range. Where da snow? Remember the GFS a few days ago depicting snow across W. TX...currently in the 50s in San Angelo.

That is true, txagwxman. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is progged to trend slightly upward over time and by 10-14 days be slightly positive. However, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is progged to go negative again. Furthermore, we are seeing signs of stratospheric warming which means a cold air dump somewhere. The PNA is progged to be positive which would mean a ridge-trough configuration over the US.

I'm reading that the European monthlies are showing February to be an icebox over much of North America. Considering all of this, I think that wintry conditions much like this last run will return the last week of this month and well into February. I just hope we can coax on a storm or two to dump precip over much of Texas.

[Portastorm]

FWIW, I did a study last night of the 49 events in Austin recorded weather history which created measurable snowfall (amounts greater than a trace). Here is a breakdown of when they occurred, monthwise:

November - 5
December - 8
January - 18
February - 15
March - 3

[Ntxw]

If I remember correctly, didn't it snow on easter (around april 7th or so) in parts of central Texas back in 2007? Not sure if it did in Austin but I know it did in Waco.

[Portastorm]

If I remember correctly, didn't it snow on easter (around april 7th or so) in parts of central Texas back in 2007? Not sure if it did in Austin but I know it did in Waco.

Yes, that did occur in April 2007 although not as far south as Austin. I believe the snow started around the Copperas Cove-Killeen area northward. Talk about a rare event!

[Ntxw]

Yeah and it wasn't just a dusting which was amazing! Though it was a narrow band of snow cause up in Dallas it did pretty much nothing

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive