TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1311 UTC 20/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 122.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [154 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0000: 13.0S 122.6E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 989
+24: 21/1200: 13.6S 123.3E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 982
+36: 22/0000: 14.1S 124.0E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 965
+48: 22/1200: 14.7S 124.4E: 110 [205]: 085 [155]: 960
+60: 23/0000: 15.1S 124.3E: 150 [280]: 085 [155]: 959
+72: 23/1200: 15.4S 124.1E: 210 [390]: 085 [155]: 959
REMARKS:
The low has shown signs of development in the last 24 hours. Recent satellite
imagery shows a curved band wrap between 0.4 and 0.5 with DT of 2.5. PAT is 2.5
and FT/CI is set to 2.5.
The low is developing as a small system in a low shear environment over warm
water [SST>30C] which should persist over the next few days allowing the system
to intensify further. Given the small size and the favourable environmental
conditions rapid development is possible. It is likely to reach TC intensity
during Thursday morning and could become a Severe TC [hurricane force winds]
before reaching the coast.
Motion should be slowly to the southeast, initially under the influence of
strong monsoon westerlies to the north of the system and weak flow to the south.
In the longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and
then track to the southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast as midlatitude troughs relax. However the steering pattern is
complex and the relative strength of monsoonal flow in models appears to be a
deciding factor in the resultant model tracks. Some models/ensemble runs provide
an alternate scenario that involves a weaker system translating on a more
eastwards track, staying north of the Kimberley coast and tracking towards the
Top End. The official forecast track is based on a consensus of model runs that
do not include this scenario but the track uncertainty takes this scenario into
account.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
W Australia : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MAGDA
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
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- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:45 pm WST on Wednesday, 20 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu, Cockatoo
Island to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts of the warning area.
At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 1 was estimated to be
385 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
395 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast. Magda is
expected to move slowly towards the Kimberley coast and intensify during
Thursday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
areas between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Thursday evening as Magda
approaches the Kimberley coast. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and as
far west as Beagle Bay during Friday depending on the movement of the system.
There is a significant risk that by Friday evening Magda will have intensified
into a Severe Tropical Cyclone and be located close to the Kimberley coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 122.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:45 pm WST on Wednesday, 20 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu, Cockatoo
Island to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts of the warning area.
At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 1 was estimated to be
385 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
395 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast. Magda is
expected to move slowly towards the Kimberley coast and intensify during
Thursday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
areas between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Thursday evening as Magda
approaches the Kimberley coast. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and as
far west as Beagle Bay during Friday depending on the movement of the system.
There is a significant risk that by Friday evening Magda will have intensified
into a Severe Tropical Cyclone and be located close to the Kimberley coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 122.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 2:45 am WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu, Cockatoo
Island to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts of the warning area.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 1 was estimated to be
355 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
370 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast and is
expected to move slowly towards the Kimberley coast and intensify during
Thursday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
areas between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Thursday evening or early
Friday morning as Magda approaches. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and
as far west as Beagle Bay during Friday depending on the movement of the system.
There is a significant risk that by Friday afternoon or evening Magda will have
intensified into a Severe Tropical Cyclone and be located close to the Kimberley
coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 122.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:45 am WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu, Cockatoo
Island to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts of the warning area.
At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 1 was estimated to be
355 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
370 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast and is
expected to move slowly towards the Kimberley coast and intensify during
Thursday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal
areas between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island during Thursday evening or early
Friday morning as Magda approaches. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and
as far west as Beagle Bay during Friday depending on the movement of the system.
There is a significant risk that by Friday afternoon or evening Magda will have
intensified into a Severe Tropical Cyclone and be located close to the Kimberley
coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 122.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 20/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 122.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [149 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 13.6S 123.2E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 986
+24: 21/1800: 14.2S 124.0E: 070 [130]: 070 [130]: 974
+36: 22/0600: 14.8S 124.5E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 960
+48: 22/1800: 15.4S 124.6E: 110 [205]: 085 [155]: 959
+60: 23/0600: 16.0S 124.4E: 150 [280]: 060 [110]: 965
+72: 23/1800: 16.4S 124.0E: 210 [390]: 055 [100]: 965
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast of
Western Australia. 20/1005 Windsat and 20/1118 SSMIS assisted in locating the
LLCC. The SSMIS image also showed an eye beginning to develop with deep
convection to the north and west of the LLCC. Using a shear pattern [<1/2 degree
from DG] a DT of 3.0 was obtained. In recent EIR images DT could be as high as
3.5 [1/3 degree into DG] depending on location of LLCC. MET/PAT is 3.0 and FT/CI
is set to 3.0.
Magda is a small system in a low shear environment over warm water [SST>30C].
These conditions should persist over the next few days allowing the system to
intensify further. Given the small size and the favourable environmental
conditions rapid development is possible. The system may become a Severe TC
[hurricane force winds] before reaching the coast.
Motion should be slowly to the southeast, initially under the influence of
strong monsoon westerlies to the north of the system and weak flow to the south.
In the longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and
then track to the southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast as midlatitude troughs relax. However the steering pattern is
complex and the relative strength of monsoonal flow in models appears to be a
deciding factor in the resultant model tracks. Some models/ensemble runs provide
an alternate scenario that involves a weaker system translating on a more
eastwards track, staying north of the Kimberley coast and tracking towards the
Top End. The official forecast track is based on a consensus of model runs that
do not include this scenario but the track uncertainty takes this scenario into
account.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1912 UTC 20/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 122.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [149 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 13.6S 123.2E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 986
+24: 21/1800: 14.2S 124.0E: 070 [130]: 070 [130]: 974
+36: 22/0600: 14.8S 124.5E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 960
+48: 22/1800: 15.4S 124.6E: 110 [205]: 085 [155]: 959
+60: 23/0600: 16.0S 124.4E: 150 [280]: 060 [110]: 965
+72: 23/1800: 16.4S 124.0E: 210 [390]: 055 [100]: 965
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast of
Western Australia. 20/1005 Windsat and 20/1118 SSMIS assisted in locating the
LLCC. The SSMIS image also showed an eye beginning to develop with deep
convection to the north and west of the LLCC. Using a shear pattern [<1/2 degree
from DG] a DT of 3.0 was obtained. In recent EIR images DT could be as high as
3.5 [1/3 degree into DG] depending on location of LLCC. MET/PAT is 3.0 and FT/CI
is set to 3.0.
Magda is a small system in a low shear environment over warm water [SST>30C].
These conditions should persist over the next few days allowing the system to
intensify further. Given the small size and the favourable environmental
conditions rapid development is possible. The system may become a Severe TC
[hurricane force winds] before reaching the coast.
Motion should be slowly to the southeast, initially under the influence of
strong monsoon westerlies to the north of the system and weak flow to the south.
In the longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and
then track to the southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast as midlatitude troughs relax. However the steering pattern is
complex and the relative strength of monsoonal flow in models appears to be a
deciding factor in the resultant model tracks. Some models/ensemble runs provide
an alternate scenario that involves a weaker system translating on a more
eastwards track, staying north of the Kimberley coast and tracking towards the
Top End. The official forecast track is based on a consensus of model runs that
do not include this scenario but the track uncertainty takes this scenario into
account.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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atomic7732
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2010 12:33 am
Re: W Australia : TROPICAL CYCLONE MAGDA
Cat 2!
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 9:10 am WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for the adjacent inland Kimberley and for coastal
areas from Beagle Bay to Broome.
The Cyclone WATCH between Wyndham and Kalumburu has been CANCELLED.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
265 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
395 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity overnight tonight. There is
the risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour near
the cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, most likely between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Kalumburu and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may extend
to Derby and Broome late Friday or on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kalumburu and Cape Leveque,
including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo Island, Koolan
Island, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and Djarindjin - but not
including Derby - need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome and Derby should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 123.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 9:10 am WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Beagle Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for the adjacent inland Kimberley and for coastal
areas from Beagle Bay to Broome.
The Cyclone WATCH between Wyndham and Kalumburu has been CANCELLED.
At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
265 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
395 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity overnight tonight. There is
the risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour near
the cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, most likely between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Kalumburu and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may extend
to Derby and Broome late Friday or on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kalumburu and Cape Leveque,
including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo Island, Koolan
Island, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and Djarindjin - but not
including Derby - need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome and Derby should
listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 123.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: W Australia : TROPICAL CYCLONE MAGDA
WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.7S 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.7S 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.4S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 122.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
201705Z AMSR-E IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AND
HINTS AT POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS AMSR-E IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES
AND APRF OF 45 KNOTS (PGTW IS AT 35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
EYE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE
SLIGHT PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 08S IS SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, PROVIDING A
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A 15 KNOT PER DAY RATE BUT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE OCCURRING IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 192051Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 192100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 12:00 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
The Cyclone WARNING from Kalumburu to Mitchell Plateau has been cancelled.
At 11:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
230 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
360 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity by tonight and possibly
reaching category four intensity prior to impacting the coast. There is the risk
of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour near the cyclone
centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the coast,
between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. GALES may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo
Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and
Djarindjin need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 123.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 12:00 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
The Cyclone WARNING from Kalumburu to Mitchell Plateau has been cancelled.
At 11:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
230 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
360 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity by tonight and possibly
reaching category four intensity prior to impacting the coast. There is the risk
of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour near the cyclone
centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the coast,
between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. GALES may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo
Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and
Djarindjin need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 123.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 21/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 123.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1200: 14.9S 123.6E: 045 [085]: 065 [120]: 976
+24: 22/0000: 15.8S 123.7E: 065 [120]: 085 [155]: 959
+36: 22/1200: 16.7S 123.6E: 085 [155]: 085 [155]: 959
+48: 23/0000: 17.6S 123.3E: 105 [195]: 070 [130]: 972
+60: 23/1200: 18.3S 122.8E: 135 [250]: 050 [095]: 985
+72: 24/0000: 19.0S 122.1E: 165 [305]: 045 [085]: 989
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Magda has intensified overnight off the northwest Kimberley
coast. Recent microwave images show a strengthening eye pattern particularly on
20/2229UTC SSMIS image. Dvorak IR curved band 0.8 wrap gives DT=3.5 plus 0.5
[for white band] = 4.0 =FT/CI. This gives maximum winds of 55 knots.
Magda is a small system in a low shear environment over warm water [SST>30C]
having favourable upper level poleward outflow. These conditions should continue
until landfall allowing the system to intensify further. Forecast intensity is
85 knots in T+24H although it is possible it may reach category four intensity
prior to landfall.
Recent motion has been to the south southeast which should persist today. In the
longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and then
track to the south southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast. Some computer models appear not to resolve the strength of the
small system and indicate a different scenario and have not been included in the
consensus track. There remains the chance the cyclone may track furthe to the
west over water close to the west Kimberley coast and maintain cyclone intensity
longer than an overland track scenario.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 21/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 123.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1200: 14.9S 123.6E: 045 [085]: 065 [120]: 976
+24: 22/0000: 15.8S 123.7E: 065 [120]: 085 [155]: 959
+36: 22/1200: 16.7S 123.6E: 085 [155]: 085 [155]: 959
+48: 23/0000: 17.6S 123.3E: 105 [195]: 070 [130]: 972
+60: 23/1200: 18.3S 122.8E: 135 [250]: 050 [095]: 985
+72: 24/0000: 19.0S 122.1E: 165 [305]: 045 [085]: 989
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Magda has intensified overnight off the northwest Kimberley
coast. Recent microwave images show a strengthening eye pattern particularly on
20/2229UTC SSMIS image. Dvorak IR curved band 0.8 wrap gives DT=3.5 plus 0.5
[for white band] = 4.0 =FT/CI. This gives maximum winds of 55 knots.
Magda is a small system in a low shear environment over warm water [SST>30C]
having favourable upper level poleward outflow. These conditions should continue
until landfall allowing the system to intensify further. Forecast intensity is
85 knots in T+24H although it is possible it may reach category four intensity
prior to landfall.
Recent motion has been to the south southeast which should persist today. In the
longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches the coast and then
track to the south southwest under the influence of an anticyclone strengthening
to the southeast. Some computer models appear not to resolve the strength of the
small system and indicate a different scenario and have not been included in the
consensus track. There remains the chance the cyclone may track furthe to the
west over water close to the west Kimberley coast and maintain cyclone intensity
longer than an overland track scenario.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
205 kilometres north of Cockatoo Island and
335 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity tonight and possibly reaching
category four intensity prior to impacting the coast on Friday. There is the
risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per hour near the
cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo
Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and
Djarindjin need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.3 degrees South 123.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
205 kilometres north of Cockatoo Island and
335 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity tonight and possibly reaching
category four intensity prior to impacting the coast on Friday. There is the
risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per hour near the
cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, Cockatoo
Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Lombadina and
Djarindjin need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.3 degrees South 123.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 5:55 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
At 5:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
170 kilometres north of Cockatoo Island and
300 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity tonight and possibly reaching
category four intensity prior to impacting the coast on Friday. There is the
risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per hour near the
cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque,
including the communities of Kuri Bay, Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Cape Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and
Beagle Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 123.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 5:55 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.
At 5:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
170 kilometres north of Cockatoo Island and
300 kilometres north of Derby and
moving south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the
Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity tonight and possibly reaching
category four intensity prior to impacting the coast on Friday. There is the
risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per hour near the
cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the
coast, between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may
extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including
Broome on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.
Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape
Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.
FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque,
including the communities of Kuri Bay, Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Cape Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and
Beagle Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 123.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 21 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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