Jan 20 - 21 Severe Weather

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 210059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS TO THE
GULF COAST...

...SERN PLNS TO THE SRN STATES...
EVENING SATL SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLNS. THIS FEATURE WILL CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER ERN OK/WRN AR BY
12Z WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND TRACK FROM
NERN TX INTO SRN AR LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH E TX
AND LWR MS VLY NWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPR TROUGH. 00Z
FORT WORTH...NORMAN...LITTLE ROCK AND LAKE CHARLES SOUNDINGS SHOWED
SUBSTANTIAL 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5+ DEG C PER KM COUPLED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1-1.5 INCHES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASING TSTMS FROM OK/NE TX SEWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS TX/OK...SFC LOW OVER NERN
TX WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK INTO SRN AR...MAINTAINING BACKED SFC FLOW
IN A CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL MS. LLVL FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AND TRANSLATE INTO
MS/WRN AL LATER TONIGHT. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WITH REPORTED DAMAGE ACROSS NERN TX AND NRN LA EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND THE WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
STRONG TORNADOES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

TO THE NW...ORGANIZED STORMS...PRIMARILY ELEVATED...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ENE FROM CNTRL/SERN OK INTO AR AND THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
STORMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ROOTED
SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE SFC FOR DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADO THREATS.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK.

...CA...
REF MCD #25 ISSUED AT 2300Z.

..RACY.. 01/21/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 210105
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-211200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK
WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND
OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS
TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 01/21/2010

$$

[Texas Snowman]

From WFAA Twitter about 15 minutes ago:

"Strong tornado located 8 mi S of Tyler, moving ENE at 20 mph. Will pass between Tyler and Whitehouse. -sm"

[Texas Snowman]

From KLTV.com in Tyler:

"A report just came in that 4 homes were leveled South of I-20 near FM 1255 (east of Canton) with entrapments. Responders are en route."

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GREGG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WHITE OAK...LONGVIEW...KILGORE...
GLADEWATER...
NORTHWESTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 735 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTH OF
OVERTON...OR 8 MILES WEST OF KILGORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIBERTY CITY AND CLARKSVILLE CITY...AND LONGVIEW

[Yankeegirl]

So whats the weather word for around the houston area? any storms here tonight?? id sure love to go to sleep with the sound of thunder...

[srainhoutx]

So whats the weather word for around the houston area? any storms here tonight?? id sure love to go to sleep with the sound of thunder...

We're fairly capped in the Houston Area. Showers and perhaps some storms as echos are increasing in Montgomery County.

[Texas Snowman]

From KSLA.com, TV station in Shreveport:

"Meanwhile the Harrison County Sheriff's Office has called the Shreveport Police Department to assist in rescue efforts after the possible tornado moved through the county. Shreveport Fire Chief Brian Crawford said the city is sending three search dogs and six handlers to the Waskom area. Reports from the sheriff's department there indicate several homes and businesses in Waskom were hit by what witnesses said was a tornado. The chief says the K9's going to Waskom are trained to find people inside trapped structures."

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 739 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VIXEN...OR 22 MILES EAST OF JONESBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CYPRESS...LUNA...COREY...BLANKSTON...FONDALE...LOGTOWN...BOSCO AND
MAIDOO...

[CrazyC83]

From KLTV.com in Tyler:

"A report just came in that 4 homes were leveled South of I-20 near FM 1255 (east of Canton) with entrapments. Responders are en route."

Sounds like a solid EF3, maybe EF4.

[Turtle]

Hey guys, I live east of Marshall. We missed the Tornado that hit Waskom, but we were ~5 min drive away. We got dime hailed and some quarter sized hail. The first hailstorm lasted like 1 min, and the next one came around 10 minutes later and lasted for a few minutes. That's like the second time I saw hail in my life. Oh and I saw the wind changing directions a lot (through the rain on the ground).

[srainhoutx]

Glad you're OK Turtle and welcome to S2k.

[Portastorm]

Here's a link to some great photos:

http://www.ktbs.com/weather-photos/

[gboudx]

We had about marble sized hail late this afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at those pictures, my guess would be EF3 for that tornado.

[Crostorm]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM UNTIL
400 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SRN CA CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL E PACIFIC JET WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THIS PERIOD AS NEXT IN
DAILY SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS SRN CA/NRN
BAJA. THE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A MAJOR PORTION OF LARGER SCALE UPR
LOW NOW ANCHORED OVER THE NE PACIFIC EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER THE RCKYS AND
PLNS...AND MAINTAIN VIGOR OF UPR LOW NOW OVER AR AS THAT SYSTEM
CONTINUES E INTO SRN VA/NC.

AT LWR LVLS...FRONTAL BAND WITH PACIFIC IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN CA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR CO VLY THIS EVE. THE
PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY INLAND NEAR SFO THIS
AFTN. FARTHER S...A SECONDARY CENTER LIKELY WILL EVOLVE W OF LOS
ANGELES. THIS LOW SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK E INTO AZ TONIGHT.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST...SFC LOW WITH AR SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENE
INTO KY/TN. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE N ACROSS GA
AND SRN SC...BUT ADVANCE WILL BE OFFSET BY PERSISTENT RAIN FROM
ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW 0VER AL/GA. EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
CONSEQUENTLY MAY BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MARKING SRN EDGE OF
THIS PRECIP FIELD. THIS BOUNDARY ATTM EXTENDS FROM VPS ENE TO NEAR
VLD...AND LIKELY WILL SHOW MINIMAL NWD MOVEMENT.

...TN VLY/ERN GULF CST/S GA/SRN SC.
WIDESPREAD AREA OF TSTMS NOW OVER AL/GA/NW FL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH UPR DIVERGENCE IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT WLY HI-LVL JET UNDERCUTTING AR UPR LOW. LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...N
FL AND SRN GA TODAY...WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG BY AFTN. AS SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADS E
ACROSS REGION...TSTMS MAY STRENGTHEN ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE EXISTING
ACTIVITY. SCTD STORMS ALSO MAY FORM ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING
SW INTO THE NERN GULF. 50+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD
SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. ATTENDANT SMALL SCALE
BOWS/LEWPS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

MEANWHILE...TONGUE OF MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NW INTO THE
LWR TN VLY E OF AR SFC LOW...AND MID LVL DRYING APPROACHING REGION
PER SATELLITE...SUGGEST THAT AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL FORM
EARLY THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE...AND MID LVL COOLING ON SE SIDE OF AR UPR VORT.
COUPLED WITH 45-55 KT SW TO WSWLY CLOUD-LYR SHEAR...SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE.

...SRN CA INTO SRN NV AND AZ...
EMBEDDED TSTMS AND LEWPS SHOULD ACCOMPANY AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BAND AS IT CROSSES THE SRN CA CST THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF DEEP WIND FIELD /50 KTS AT 700 MB AND 70 KTS AT
500/...THESE STRUCTURES MAY YIELD DMGG WIND. IN ADDITION
...DEPENDING HOW STRONGLY BACKED THE LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES...
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL BACKING
WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE INTENSITY OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
L.A. BASIN ...IN ADDITION TO TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. ALTHOUGH IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINITIVELY ASSESS THE FORMER...THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FIELD...FAVORABLE TIMING RELATIVE TO DIURNAL CYCLE...AND
APPARENT INTENSITY OF UPR SYSTEM IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER
SUGGEST THAT THREAT IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD
EXTEND E INTO THE LWR CO VLY/SRN PLATEAU BY EVE AS STRONG JET EXIT
REGION UVV...AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD...CONTINUE EWD. WHILE ANY
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK...SUCH ACTIVITY WILL ASSIST
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 70+ KT 700 MB FLOW.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1239 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 130 PM EST

* AT 1239 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ST.
GEORGE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF CALLAHAN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HILLIARD AND CALLAHAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
119 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 119 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
RIVER...OR NEAR RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STARKE.

[Dave]

JAN 21 12:45:00 EST
TSTM WND DMG
ST GEORGE
CHARLTON CTY
GA
LAW ENFORCEMENT
FEW RESIDENCES DAMAGED, NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.