W Australia : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MAGDA

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FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 9:05 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was relocated by satellite and
surface observations and estimated to be
115 kilometres north northwest of Kuri Bay and
305 kilometres north of Derby and
moving southeast at 11 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Magda has been relocated based on recent satellite imagery and
is taking a southeastwards track towards the Kimberley coast. Magda has weakened
a little during the afternoon but is likely to reintenisify overnight and reach
category three as it impacts the Kimberley coast during Friday.

There is the risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per
hour near the cyclone centre on Friday, when the cyclone should be close to the
coast, between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales
may extend to Derby later on Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga
including Broome on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.

Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and
Cockatoo Island with flooding of low lying areas possible.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Beagle Bay, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and Beagle
Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 124.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1352 UTC 21/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 124.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0000: 15.3S 124.4E: 055 [100]: 070 [130]: 972
+24: 22/1200: 16.3S 124.4E: 085 [155]: 070 [130]: 972
+36: 23/0000: 17.2S 124.3E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 23/1200: 18.1S 124.1E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 24/0000: 18.8S 123.6E: 200 [365]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 24/1200: 20.0S 122.7E: 245 [455]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
TC Magda has been relocated based on the 1105UTC SSMIS image and analysis of 3.9
micron imagery with the position consistent with available surface observations.
[The Windsat image has also just come in confirming the relocation]. Magda
weakened during the afternoon under the influence of vertical shear. The track
during the afternoon was toward the SE and this is likely to continue for the
next six hours or so. After that there are two scenarios possible; the first
being that it begins to reinstensify during the favourable diurnal period in the
morning assisted by a lowering of the vertical shear although it is hard to
diagnose whether the shear conditions will in fact become more favourable. If
the system intenisfies the track is likely to shift more southerly. This is the
scenario depicted in the forecasat track map. Alternatively, if it fails to
reintensify it is likely to continue on a southeastwards track and weaken
rapidly after making landfall during Friday morning.

An average DT of 3.5 over 3 hours was obtained based on a shear pattern [which
seems most appropriate] and the CI is dropped to 3.5 after holding it 0.5 above
FT for 6 hours, although it could be argued this may have been generous for such
a small system. ADT has CI still at 4.3 although raw T numbers have been
consistently low. CIMSS AMSU was 50 knots at 06Z and 42 knots at 09Z after
peaking much higher early today. Obs from Browse Island, the microwave and IR
imagery all support idea that the system intenisfied very rapidly between 17Z
and 2230Z yesterday before weakening just as rapidly under around 20 knots of
shear by 0430Z today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 11:45 pm WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
80 kilometres north of Kuri Bay and
295 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Magda has continued to move on a steady southeastwards track
towards the Kimberley coast. It may slow as it approaches the coast and take a
more southerly track. There is still a risk that it could reintensify as it
approaches the coast but it is now less likely to reach category three before
crossing the coast.

Destructive winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are expected close to
the centre of the cyclone during Friday morning when the Magda is likely to be
near the coast between Kuri Bay and Mitchell Plateau.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island as the cyclone approaches. If Magda slows
abruptly and takes a more southerly track, which is possible, then gales may
still occur in locations further south of Cockatoo Island on Saturday, however
the risk of gales in these locations is diminishing.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls
are not expected.

Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and
Cockatoo Island with flooding of low lying areas possible.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Beagle Bay, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and Beagle
Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 124.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1352 UTC 21/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 124.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0000: 15.3S 124.4E: 055 [100]: 070 [130]: 972
+24: 22/1200: 16.3S 124.4E: 085 [155]: 070 [130]: 972
+36: 23/0000: 17.2S 124.3E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 23/1200: 18.1S 124.1E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 24/0000: 18.8S 123.6E: 200 [365]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 24/1200: 20.0S 122.7E: 245 [455]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
TC Magda has been relocated based on the 1105UTC SSMIS image and analysis of 3.9
micron imagery with the position consistent with available surface observations.
[The Windsat image has also just come in confirming the relocation]. Magda
weakened during the afternoon under the influence of vertical shear. The track
during the afternoon was toward the SE and this is likely to continue for the
next six hours or so. After that there are two scenarios possible; the first
being that it begins to reinstensify during the favourable diurnal period in the
morning assisted by a lowering of the vertical shear although it is hard to
diagnose whether the shear conditions will in fact become more favourable. If
the system intenisfies the track is likely to shift more southerly. This is the
scenario depicted in the forecasat track map. Alternatively, if it fails to
reintensify it is likely to continue on a southeastwards track and weaken
rapidly after making landfall during Friday morning.

An average DT of 3.5 over 3 hours was obtained based on a shear pattern [which
seems most appropriate] and the CI is dropped to 3.5 after holding it 0.5 above
FT for 6 hours, although it could be argued this may have been generous for such
a small system. ADT has CI still at 4.3 although raw T numbers have been
consistently low. CIMSS AMSU was 50 knots at 06Z and 42 knots at 09Z after
peaking much higher early today. Obs from Browse Island, the microwave and IR
imagery all support idea that the system intenisfied very rapidly between 17Z
and 2230Z yesterday before weakening just as rapidly under around 20 knots of
shear by 0430Z today.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 2:50 am WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and
extends to remaining inland parts of the west Kimberley.

At 2:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
35 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
255 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Magda is near the Kimberley coast in the vicinity of Kuri Bay
and has taken on a more southerly track. Unless Tropical Cyclone Magda moves to
a southwesterly track the likelihood of any intensification appears to be small.


Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected close to
the centre of the cyclone during this morning in the vicinity of Kuri Bay.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island as the cyclone approaches. Since Magda has
taken on a southerly track gales may still occur in locations further south of
Cockatoo Island on Saturday, however the risk of gales in these locations is
diminishing.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley today and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls are
not expected.

Tides today will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo
Island with flooding of low lying areas possible.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Beagle Bay, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and Beagle
Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley including Broome should listen for
the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 124.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 21/01/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Magda
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 124.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [147 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0600: 15.9S 124.7E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 993
+24: 22/1800: 16.9S 124.7E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 23/0600: 17.8S 124.5E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 23/1800: 18.6S 124.2E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1002
+60: 24/0600: 19.5S 123.5E: 200 [365]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 24/1800: 20.7S 122.5E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
TC Magda is still under the influence of northeasterly shear and has taken a
more southerly track, with the mid level centre apparent on the Wyndham radar.
The system has not intensified and is expected to cross the Kimberley coast
early this morning, continuing to track southwards and weaken over land.

An average DT of 3.5 over 3 hours was obtained based on a shear pattern [which
seems most appropriate] and the FT/CI is 3.5.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 5:50 am WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Beagle
Bay.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and remaining
inland parts of the west Kimberley has been cancelled.

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be
15 kilometres southeast of Kuri Bay and
215 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Magda lies just inland from the Kimberley coast in the vicinity
of Kuri Bay and is now moving in a southerly direction. Unless Tropical Cyclone
Magda moves to the southwest the likelihood of any intensification appears to be
small. At this stage the majority of model guidance indicates that the system
will continue southwards and weaken over land.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected close to
the centre of the cyclone during this morning in the vicinity of Kuri Bay.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island as the cyclone approaches during this
morning. If the cyclone takes a more southwesterly track gales may extend to
Beagle Bay, but the risk of this occuring is diminishing.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley today and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls are
not expected.

Tides today will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo
Island with flooding of low lying areas possible.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Beagle Bay, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Derby and Beagle
Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including
first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Remaining communities in the west Kimberley should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 124.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

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WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.0S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.8S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.5S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 124.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 211731Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON CORROBORATING DATA
BETWEEN THE 211731Z AMSU IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE BROOME
RADAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW STILL
REMAINS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS TC MAGDA MAKES LANDFALL IN THE LATER
TAUS IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 9:00 am WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cape
Leveque.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be near the
Kimberley coast
45 kilometres south of Kuri Bay and
180 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving south at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Magda, located near the Kimberley coast south of Kuri Bay, is
expected to continue moving south and weaken over land later today.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected close to
the cyclone centre south of Kuri Bay this morning.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may occur in remaining coastal areas
between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo Island today. If the cyclone takes a more
southwesterly track gales may extend to Derby and Cape Leveque for a period
later today.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley today and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls are
not expected.

Tides may be higher than expected today between Mitchell Plateau and Cockatoo
Island.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Kuri Bay should remain in shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Mitchell Plateau
and Cape Leveque, including the communities of Mitchell Plateau and Derby need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in Beagle Bay are advised that the threat of strong winds has
passed.

Remaining communities in the west Kimberley should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 124.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 12:00 pm WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Cape Leveque.

The Cyclone WARNING from Mitchell Plateau to Kuri Bay has been cancelled.

At 11:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be near the
Kimberley coast
90 kilometres south of Kuri Bay and
140 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving south at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Magda, located near the Kimberley coast south of Kuri Bay, is
expected to continue moving south and weaken over land.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible close to
the cyclone centre south of Kuri Bay during the early afternoon.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may occur in remaining coastal areas
between Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island, extending to Derby later today. There is
the possibility of gales reaching Cape Leveque later today if the cyclone takes
on a more southwesterly direction.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley today and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls are
not expected.

Tides may be higher than expected today between Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities between Koolan Island and Cape
Leveque, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm
Point, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque need to take action and get ready
to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in the remaining coastal communities between Kuri Bay and
Cape Leveque, including Derby need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise
an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay are advised that the danger
of strong winds has passed.

Remaining communities in the west Kimberley should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 124.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Sanibel]

Went east and didn't deepen like expected.

[Crostorm]

DW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Derby.

The Cyclone WARNING from Cape Leveque to Derby has been cancelled.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 2 was estimated to be near the
Kimberley coast
135 kilometres south of Kuri Bay and
105 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Magda is now located inland northeast of Derby, and is expected
to continue moving south and weaken over land.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are possible close to
the cyclone centre this afternoon.
Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may occur near coastal parts between
Kuri Bay and Derby, and reaching adjacent inland areas of the west Kimberley
this evening.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone
track in the west Kimberley today and Saturday, but widespread heavy falls are
not expected.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in and near Derby need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in or near communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque,
including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, One Arm Point,
Lombadina, Djarindjin and Cape Leveque are advised that the danger of strong
winds has passed.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 124.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday 22 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 124.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL VIA COLLIER BAY AND IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR
LOOP FROM BROOME SHOWING THE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS, MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM, FAST DECAYING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATIONS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON A 220339Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
BY TAU 24. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNING AT 222100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Friday, 22 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The Cyclone WARNING from Cockatoo Island to Derby has been CANCELLED.

At 8:00 pm WST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Magda, was estimated to be
85 kilometres east of Derby and moving south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Magda has weakened below cyclone intensity. Gales are no
longer expected, however severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and heavy
rain are expected in the west Kimberley overnight as the low continues to
weaken. A Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] has been issued for the west
Kimberly. Please refer to that warning for further details.

Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected in the west Kimberley
overnight.

FESA State Emergency Service [SES] advises of the following community alerts:

ALL CLEAR: People in or near Derby, including those in the Camballin community
are advised that the danger of cyclonic weather has passed but you need to take
care to avoid the dangers posed by severe thunderstorms overnight.


Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Magda at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 124.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (MAGDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.0S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 124.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (MAGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 08S HAS TRACKED OVER LAND AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER LAND UNTIL IT HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE WERE A FEW MODELS
THAT INDICATED TC 08S COULD TURN BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
REDEVELOP. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING DOES NOT FAVOR THIS
SCENARIO, BUT INSTEAD FAVORS A CONTINUED TRACK INLAND AS DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN