Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[vbhoutex]

I'm not nearly as good as you guys with these models, but I just took a look to see what I can come up wilth. Do I see what I think I see starting at 384 hrs?(yes I know about it being too far out to rely on). I see a probable plunge of very cold aiar starting to come our way. I do find it quite interesting that the ECMWF hasn't picked up on next Fri/Sat. Any reasoning as to why it hasn't?

[srainhoutx]

I'm not nearly as good as you guys with these models, but I just took a look to see what I can come up wilth. Do I see what I think I see starting at 384 hrs?(yes I know about it being too far out to rely on). I see a probable plunge of very cold aiar starting to come our way. I do find it quite interesting that the ECMWF hasn't picked up on next Fri/Sat. Any reasoning as to why it hasn't?

Actually just a bit sooner David if you look at the ensembles. Part of the reasoning behind so much time given in some postings were the signals of a return to a tanking AO and now NAO. This fits nicely with the SSW/MMW data that has been discussed over the past week and why my concern have has been for another pattern change for February to a colder/stormier regime. The 00Z ensembles are latching on to this now and certainly bears watching. The EC has a tendency to linger features in the SW. Perhaps the upgrade will help, but then again may not.

00Z GFS Emsemble Members...certainly has an -NAO look about it...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... opnew.html

[Ntxw]

I like how things are trending what makes it more sweet is that this isn't some crazy 200h+ plus out. Pretty sure someone should get some winter with it, just details are not so fine tuned yet

[txagwxman]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

2nd trough coming into CA may screw this forecast up for next Saturday...but GFS still going 20s, so I am going to hang onto the forecast even though the ECMWF still hasn't bitten at it (at all). If the GFS is right fresh snow cover will be laid from Tex Panhandle through OKC next weekend...have to wait for more 12z runs to come out. Like I said the models are going to flip-flop.

New 12Z ECMWF leaning colder now for Sat (teens Dallas). Lots of snow for N TX, OKC again if this is close...single digit lows for OKC/TULSA. We will see...still a while out. But like the set-up.

[Ntxw]

That would be even more realistic if the storm prior layed any snowcover

[srainhoutx]

Looks like another hard freeze likely for SE TX next weekend...still 7 days out though...but things are lining up...I wouldn't be surprised to see Conroe near 20F again, IAH 26F.
I will take Tomball to 22F...we will see...ECMWF still not lined up, and the models may back off some, but I just like the pattern. If that trough over the moves fast enough East, then the cold cold air will plunge down the Rockies into Texas.

See what the overnight runs do.

2nd trough coming into CA may screw this forecast up for next Saturday...but GFS still going 20s, so I am going to hang onto the forecast even though the ECMWF still hasn't bitten at it (at all). If the GFS is right fresh snow cover will be laid from Tex Panhandle through OKC next weekend...have to wait for more 12z runs to come out. Like I said the models are going to flip-flop.

New 12Z ECMWF leaning colder now for Sat (teens Dallas).

Was just about to post txagwxman. 12Z EC looks to offer some surprises regarding next week. Looks a bit colder and some wintry precip chances for NW TX, N TX, and OK via the ECMWF. The PV looks further W as well. Still a long way to go with the 'finer details' at this range, but the trend is for a stepping down pattern yet again.

[serenata09]

Are we still talking about a thursday time frame?

[attallaman]

Will this cold air which you're talking about impact all of the SE US? Can I expect to receive some cold temps out of this next weather system here along the MS GC? How cold are you talking about? Having to let your outside faucets drip pencil thin all night kind of cold?

[Ntxw]

Will this cold air which you're talking about impact all of the SE US? Can I expect to receive some cold temps out of this next weather system here along the MS GC? How cold are you talking about? Having to let your outside faucets drip pencil thin all night kind of cold?

As Srainhoutx has been saying it's going to be a stepping down process. Don't expect a cold front to blast through with frigid temperatures overnight. It's going to come slowly in waves.

[PTrackerLA]

I welcome back the cold air as we are still in January and I found this week a little too warm for my liking. Remember how hot last June was? Not in a huge hurry to get back to that point but another month of cold followed by a pleasant spring would be perfect for me!

[aerology]

Just a heads up....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

We already had a spate of 14 Tornadoes (preliminary data total) on the 20th January 2010, just as the Moon crossed the equator headed North. Which brought in warmer moist air from the gulf, and a nice tight body of more polar, dry line air mass, mid afternoon to start things off. Expect another round the (Texas) 27th -30th (Ga, Al) January the same areas.



As the moon will be maximum North on the 27th, the warm moist air it will drag with it, will clash with the cold air mass, the models are hinting at. The resultant wrap around mixing of the two, will generate a spate of severe weather, that sweeps across the SE / Gulf coast, with hail and tornadoes very possible the end of January 2010.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this afernoon...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
305 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 26 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 30 2010

WE ARE STILL SEEING A LARGE AREA OF OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FROM
ALASKA ACROSS CANADA TO NWRN EUROPE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVE
NAO. TWO CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA WILL DOMINATE. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER NW CANADA WILL
WEAKEN AND SLIDE SE...WHILE TREMENDOUS DEEPENING AND COOLING
OCCURS BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. FARTHER E...A NEW
STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER DEVELOPING W OF THE BRITISH ISLES
WILL BE DOMINANT.

BOTH OF THESE ANOMALY CENTERS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SE
CANADA/THE NE CONUS AND COLD WEATHER OVER THAT PORTION OF NOAM.
THE TRICKY PART OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK...CONCERNING THE INTERACTION OF THE NEXT SRN STREAM SYS OVER
THE SERN CONUS WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY FRI-SAT OVER THE
ERN CONUS N OF ABOUT 37 DEGREES LATITUDE.

UPSTREAM OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...PERSISTENT TROUGHING NEAR THE
145TH MERIDIAN WILL SUPPORT A MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EXTENDING N
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN HEIGHT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 55N/110W.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA. DETAIL-WISE...THE
FINAL GRAPHICS STAYED WITH THE BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
USED IN THE PRELIM PROGS....WITH THE 12Z/23 CANADIAN SUPPORTING
ITS 00Z COUNTERPART RATHER WELL.

THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS IS QUITE CONSISTENT THRU DAY 6 WITH
ITS EARLIER 00Z RUN...WHICH LEAVES IT STILL FASTER BY FRI DAY 6
WITH THE NEXT SRN STREAM SYS OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AND MS VLY THAN OUR PREFERRED BLEND OF THE 00Z/23 CANADIAN AND
ECMWF.
THE NEW 12Z/23 CANADIAN IS ALSO QUITE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR
00Z CONTINUITY BUT HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER...TOWARDS THE
GFS...WITH THE SRN STREAM SYS APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VLY BY FRI
DAY 6.

WHILE THE 12Z/23 UKMET HAS DECENT CONTINUITY THRU DAY 6 WITH THE
FIRST SRN STREAM SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN BORDER STATES...IT
MAKES A HUGE CHANGE FROM ITS 00Z CONTINUITY FOR FRI BY DAY 6 IN
PULLING THE POLAR VORTEX OVER FAR ERN CANADA BACK TOWARDS HUDSON
BAY. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF MAKING THE PATTERN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENG CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT THAT TIME. THE NEW 12Z/23
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED SW WITH THE CANADIAN VORTEX BY THU
EVE....AND HAS A WARMER LOOK OVER THE NERN CONUS THAN ITS 00Z
CONTINUITY. WE THINK THAT THE UKMET/ECMWF WARMING HERE IS OVERDONE
AND WILL ACCEPT ONLY A SLIGHTLY WARMER SCENARIO THAN CONTINUITY.

CONCERNING THE SRN STREAM SYS...THE 12Z/23 ECMWF SHEARS IT APART
FRI/SAT DAYS 6-7 IN A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY...A LOW CONFIDENCE PROPOSITION AT BEST. IN OUR FINALS...WE
ARE STAYED WITH 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z/12Z CANADIAN SCENARIO.

THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SERN STATES TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE FIRST SRN STREAM SYS REACHES THE SERN STATES SAT IT MAY
SUPPORT A LOW MAY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE S
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOWS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND....DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT
TRACK. THE CANADIAN/ECMWF ALSO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SECOND
SRN STREAM SYS APPROACHING CA NEXT WEEKEND.

FLOOD

[srainhoutx]

Good snipet from Lubbock this afternoon...

.LONG TERM...
A WINTER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAMP PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ALSO...
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER TOWARDS A BIT QUICKER TURN-OVER TO RAIN/SNOW
EARLIER THURSDAY...AND SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED STILL BY A GEM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH HAS
MAINTAINED BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA AS WELL.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY AS A SHALLOW REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FLAT...ALREADY NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT PASSING EARLY WEDNESDAY QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST BACK INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS...AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC WITH AFTERNOON SOUTH OR POSSIBLY SOME SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT INTO WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SEEMINGLY SUPPORTING SOME
WARMING THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THIS TO SOME EXTENT.

SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
CENTER OF STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...APPEARING HEADED SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS AREA IN A MANNER THAT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE WE HAVE SEEN THIS MODEL RUN
SUGGESTS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR THURSDAY FROM ECMWF. IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT...THIS MAY ALSO ASSIST TURNING
PRECIPITATION QUICKER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

ANYWAY...STORM REMAINS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT SO THERE IS INHERENT CONFIDENCE
LIMITATIONS TO KEEP FROM INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TOO MUCH.
STILL...THE CHANGES MADE THIS RUN WILL ALLOW US TO ADD A MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR A POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS. WHETHER THIS TURNS INTO A MAJOR STORM IS STILL BEYOND
OUR ABILITY TO DETERMINE...THOUGH A POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY EXISTS.
RMCQUEEN

[Ntxw]

Whew...

[Snowluvr]

Any chance we get snow in south Ms in the next 2 weeks?

[srainhoutx]

Whew...

Look at the "longer range"...

[vbhoutex]

Hmm?? Can one say "very active southern jet, below normal temps and above normal precip." for about a month? Details will work themselves out but I sure do see a lot pointing towards cold and stormy again as we move further into February. Of course "cold and stormy" depends on one's perspective. Yep, I did look at the longer range.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS tonight is ever so slightly further south.

[Big O]

Check the following graphic by a well-respected met (Dave Tolleris a/k/a DT with WxRisk) who is not one to hype cold or snow:

http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/3034/linkagez.gif

Just to be clear, he isn't forecasting this, but if either the European (arctic intrustion into the central and eastern US) or GFS (Siberian Express) verfies, we could see some fun and games here in Texas.

[txagwxman]

Still hanging on to my forecast for this weekend in TX...local tv wx guys are clueless. ECMWF still going 20s in Houston Sat/Sun teens Dallas..although GEM didn't look too impressive.
Going to hang tight to the ECMWF solution as it appears reasonable, only problems are the SW trough that comes into CA next Sat...Snow looks highly likely from LBB/AMA to OKC/TUL.

We will see. I am colder than NWS...DFW 32-35F high on Friday if this ECMWF close, lows 18F Sat. Tomball 24F Sat morning. Still 5-6 days out and model errors can still be huge.


BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS.