Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

IMHO, one could not draw better maps for the possibility of wintry weather in Texas than this ... we have cross-polar flow bringing down very cold air. We have West Coast ridging to transport the air our way. We have a strong polar vortex lowering into Canada. And we have an active southern jet with persistant low pressure off the southern California coast. Furthermore both the GFS and Euro here are very close in depiction. Wow!

[Ntxw]

Finally FW is more bullish on the idea!

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED LOW TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND MORE
COMPACT WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS. THE DETAILS BEAR WATCHING AS
THE BOTH MODELS ALSO POINT TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH SHUTS
OFF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A
STRONGER...MORE WRAPPED UP SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WRAPPING UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD
KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO PLACE. EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF KEEPS THIS AREA JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF
NORTH TX LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO RECOVER
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...SO WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRUE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN.

[wxgirl69]

IMHO, one could not draw better maps for the possibility of wintry weather in Texas than this ... we have cross-polar flow bringing down very cold air. We have West Coast ridging to transport the air our way. We have a strong polar vortex lowering into Canada. And we have an active southern jet with persistant low pressure off the southern California coast. Furthermore both the GFS and Euro here are very close in depiction. Wow!

What time frame are we looking at for this cold system? Thanks!!!

[Ntxw]

12z gfs continues the potential for a significant winter storm in the southern plains.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I see the overnight guidance stirred some conversation. It does look like we will have a shot of Polar Air heading S later in the week. A lot of 'finer details' will be worked out over the next couple of days. With ongoing Pacific RECON missions, I suspect a workable solution will unfold as we near Tuesday into Wednesday. The concerning issues will be the timing and strength of the Upper Air feature behind the surface as low as well as the track of these systems. Also of concern is phasing of the Northern and Southern Stream and where that occurs. Longer range after this system also hints of a brief zonal flow. We have seen this before via guidance as models struggle with pattern changes. The first system on Wednesday/Thursday does look to open the door abit toward a stepping down process. Hold on to your hats, it looks like an interesting week across TX.

[attallaman]

Finally FW is more bullish on the idea!

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS REGARDING
THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED LOW TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE UPON
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND MORE
COMPACT WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE GFS. THE DETAILS BEAR WATCHING AS
THE BOTH MODELS ALSO POINT TO A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH SHUTS
OFF ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A
STRONGER...MORE WRAPPED UP SCENARIO POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROWAL LIKE FEATURE WRAPPING UP BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD
KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO PLACE. EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF KEEPS THIS AREA JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION NEAR THE RED RIVER COUNTIES OF
NORTH TX LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS POINT TO A VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 40 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO RECOVER
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...SO WHILE THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRUE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IT LOOKS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN.

Is it possible that this next potential cold outbreak could make it's way all the way down to the coastal regions of LA, MS, and AL?

[Ntxw]

Could expect nights down to freezing and a lot of rain prior to that. Any snow\ice should be limited to the mid-south. Though beyond this week things could change

[gboudx]

Is it possible that this next potential cold outbreak could make it's way all the way down to the coastal regions of LA, MS, and AL?

Depending on how the game goes today, it could be really, really cold soon when hell freezes over.

[Portastorm]

OT ... who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?!

Hoping my boy Drew Brees does well and the Saints go marching into the Super Bowl!

[gofrogs2]

What should the dall fort worth area expect for next week could we posible get some snow out of this system.

[Ntxw]

What should the dall fort worth area expect for next week could we posible get some snow out of this system.

Based on the latest data this system is very similar to that of the Christmas storm, however the track looks to be further south than that one as the models have continued to trend so not saying there's going to be a blizzard but areas from I-20 to OKC should keep an eye out if you want winter weather. We should have a better idea of what will pan out by early this week.

[gofrogs2]

You dont think that it will be dry cold air do you that would just shunt off all of the precipation do you.

[Ntxw]

You dont think that it will be dry cold air do you that would just shunt off all of the precipation do you.

Not for the storm marginal, looks right now as if DFW is again on the cusp between rain and snow lol latest EC sure does look chillier.

[srainhoutx]

You dont think that it will be dry cold air do you that would just shunt off all of the precipation do you.

Not for the storm marginal, looks right now as if DFW is again on the cusp between rain and snow lol latest EC sure does look chillier.

Also slower with the Upper Air feature. More energy holding back into N MX/W TX. Looks like post frontal precip could linger a touch longer as well. We shall see.

[gofrogs2]

Whats the ec saying verbatim

[txagwxman]

Whats the ec saying verbatim

18F Dallas Saturday, mid 20s IAH Sunday morning.

[gofrogs2]

Any precip to go with it. At least from the ec standpoint.

[Ntxw]

Any precip to go with it. At least from the ec standpoint.

Difficult to know with the free data but the system is slower/colder and slightly further south on the EC which would mean very optimistic for our chances.

[BrokenGlass]

Hmmmm, FW becoming even more bullish...

444
fxus64 kfwd 242144
afdfwd


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
344 PM CST sun Jan 24 2010


Discussion...
the isolated showers and thunderstorms that developed this
morning continue to move southeast this afternoon. This
convection is associated with a shortwave that is moving across
North Texas this afternoon. Expect the precipitation to dissipate
after sunset. The upper flow will become zonal for the early part
of the week and we will see dry weather with moderating
temperatures. A strong upper level system will move into Southern
California Tuesday night and then move east and northeast across
the Central Plains Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring a
good chance of precipitation to North Texas Wednesday and Thursday.
A strong cold front will blast through North Texas on Thursday
with gusty northerly winds. High temperatures across the north
will likely occur in the morning. Before the precipitation ends
Thursday night/early Friday morning...partial thickness values
fall to critical values for a change over across the north. The
thus have introduced rain changing to snow or rain/snow across
the northern two tiers of counties. Cold but dry weather is then
expected for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will start to
moderate on Sunday as southerly flow returns ahead of the next
system.


58


&&

[Ntxw]

Also note the strong winds coming into play with frontal passage as well as cold air advection at the surface. Wild ride southern plains