When will we see more Arctic Cold?

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: Can't really say for sure. Temps in Alaska are colder than what it was in Canada the past arctic wave. Also to note siberia is also brutally cold. We'll just have to wait and see.

If we get a good tele-connection to Siberia and the right pattern to dislodge all that cold and bring it South all bets are off!!

[wxgirl69]

are the models still showing a possible cold front at the end of the month?

[vbhoutex]

are the models still showing a possible cold front at the end of the month?

Yes models are showing a definite return of the cold towards the end of January or beginning of February. How "cold" it will be is still up for discussion, to say the least, since we are still so far out.

[xironman]

From Raleigh's site for 12z, days 11-15, still doesn't look like any blocking is effecting things too much. The models always seem to do a head fake on a pattern change. The STJ still seems in charge. The NAO http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml#discussion looks like it may crash the first week in February so my guess is the second week for real cold.

[jinftl]

Here in Florida, I would hazard to guess that we will not see a repeat of the cold snap from earlier this month in terms of both intensity and especially duration in the coming weeks. No doubt we will see cold fronts of varying intensity...and it is not impossible that some areas have yet to still reach their lowest minimum temps this winter....but the chance of such a cold snap basically lasting for 2 weeks again is slim.

Climatology and temperature stats would both suggest there is certainly alot of potential cold weather ahead in the next 6-8 weeks (although the forecast for at least the next 10 days shows no signs of that), but I don't anticipate the type of blocking pattern we just saw with any remaining cold snaps this winter. That pattern allowed for front after to front to sweep down through the state. Rather, I would expect more 'typical' cold snaps...2 or 3 days/nights in duration and then moderation.

If a more typical el nino pattern emerges, it would be less likely that florida will see any additional freeze threats from now through spring. Instead we may see more rain-induced cool temps, rather than arctic invasions.

[Dean4Storms]

Here in Florida, I would hazard to guess that we will not see a repeat of the cold snap from earlier this month in terms of both intensity and especially duration in the coming weeks. No doubt we will see cold fronts of varying intensity...and it is not impossible that some areas have yet to still reach their lowest minimum temps this winter....but the chance of such a cold snap basically lasting for 2 weeks again is slim.

Climatology and temperature stats would both suggest there is certainly alot of potential cold weather ahead in the next 6-8 weeks (although the forecast for at least the next 10 days shows no signs of that), but I don't anticipate the type of blocking pattern we just saw with any remaining cold snaps this winter. That pattern allowed for front after to front to sweep down through the state. Rather, I would expect more 'typical' cold snaps...2 or 3 days/nights in duration and then moderation.

If a more typical el nino pattern emerges, it would be less likely that florida will see any additional freeze threats from now through spring. Instead we may see more rain-induced cool temps, rather than arctic invasions.

I agree, could be as cold but not sustained as long as this last cold shot.

[southerngale]

Personally, I don't want to be as cold as we were with this recent deep freeze. A little "warmer," but cold enough, along with some precip... then we're cooking!

[attallaman]

Personally, I don't want to be as cold as we were with this recent deep freeze. A little "warmer," but cold enough, along with some precip... then we're cooking!

Would you be "cooking with gas" as my mama use to say? Sorry to hear about your Cowboys loss to the Vikings, but there's always next season.

[Siberian Express]

[quote=Football is overrated[/quote]


Well, I'm not sure about the cold moving down south, I know I'll see more. Football on the other hand isn't overrated especially when you're on the right side of the game plan.

As a season ticket holder, I never jump off the Vikes bus, win or lose. I also don't have to pay $75 to park...hahaha. You know Who Dat going to beat those Saints! Mission Miami almost complete.

[attallaman]

[quote=Football is overrated

Well, I'm not sure about the cold moving down south, I know I'll see more. Football on the other hand isn't overrated especially when you're on the right side of the game plan.

As a season ticket holder, I never jump off the Vikes bus, win or lose. I also don't have to pay $75 to park...hahaha. You know Who Dat going to beat those Saints! Mission Miami almost complete.[/quote]

Being a Saints fan I will have to say that I think the Vikings defensive front will put the Saints offense to the test next Sunday. I'm hoping that the Saints will win but I'll also be surprised if they defeat your Vikings as bad as your Vikings defeated the Cowboys. I expect the game to be a lower scoring game than last week's Cowboys vs Vikings game. Can someone answer another question, what's with that chant "Pants on the floor" that the Vikings were shouting about in their locker room after the game?

[Stormcenter]

I know this a weather forum and all but I had put in my two cents here. Thanks to the NFL ticket I 've had the pleasure of watching both NFC final teams play this past season. If the Saints come to play like they did last weekend I'm sorry but the Vikes won't have a chance. In addition the Vikes are not the same team away from home. If you don't believe me just look at replays of their recent losses to the Cardinals and Carolina.

[quote=Football is overrated

Well, I'm not sure about the cold moving down south, I know I'll see more. Football on the other hand isn't overrated especially when you're on the right side of the game plan.

As a season ticket holder, I never jump off the Vikes bus, win or lose. I also don't have to pay $75 to park...hahaha. You know Who Dat going to beat those Saints! Mission Miami almost complete.

Being a Saints fan I will have to say that I think the Vikings defensive front will put the Saints offense to the test next Sunday. I'm hoping that the Saints will win but I'll also be surprised if they defeat your Vikings as bad as your Vikings defeated the Cowboys. I expect the game to be a lower scoring game than last week's Cowboys vs Vikings game. Can someone answer another question, what's with that chant "Pants on the floor" that the Vikings were shouting about in their locker room after the game?[/quote]

[vbhoutex]

Please take the football comments to the sports forum.

[attallaman]

Please take the football comments to the sports forum.

10-4 good buddy.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Played around trying to paste these pictures but was unsuccessful. Here is US temperature and precipitation predictions for next 6 to 14 days:




edited by vbhoutex to post as images

[xironman]

Looks like there is a chance of at least a short lived outbreak next week

[srainhoutx]

Looks like there is a chance of at least a short lived outbreak next week

Might want to check some MMW as well as AO data. This may not be as quick of a hit after all. There are some hints via Long Range guidance that we may be back into a cold regime (below normal means) into early March. Just sayin, though I'm not sold completely yet.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thanks, vbhoutex. Keep it warm!

WLD

[Patrick99]

Here in Florida, I would hazard to guess that we will not see a repeat of the cold snap from earlier this month in terms of both intensity and especially duration in the coming weeks. No doubt we will see cold fronts of varying intensity...and it is not impossible that some areas have yet to still reach their lowest minimum temps this winter....but the chance of such a cold snap basically lasting for 2 weeks again is slim.

Climatology and temperature stats would both suggest there is certainly alot of potential cold weather ahead in the next 6-8 weeks (although the forecast for at least the next 10 days shows no signs of that), but I don't anticipate the type of blocking pattern we just saw with any remaining cold snaps this winter. That pattern allowed for front after to front to sweep down through the state. Rather, I would expect more 'typical' cold snaps...2 or 3 days/nights in duration and then moderation.

If a more typical el nino pattern emerges, it would be less likely that florida will see any additional freeze threats from now through spring. Instead we may see more rain-induced cool temps, rather than arctic invasions.

I think this will prove to be accurate. It's interesting to note that while the first half of January was so cold, the second half has been rather mild and often downright warm and humid. Through next weekend, only weak cold fronts in the forecast dropping nighttime lows to the upper 50s.

At least in South Florida, when you start getting to this point in January, the chances of major cold events start decreasing rather steeply. Not to say that kind of weather *can't* happen in February, but I do believe it becomes less likely. In my decades of living here, the second half of December and the first half of January has generally been the coldest part of the winter.

[xironman]

0 degree 850's touch the Gulf on the 31'st via the Euro. Lines up pretty good with that short term block.



Eastern NC through NJ get clobbered by an nor'easter.

[srainhoutx]

00Z 's are running...NAM (N Pacific view) through 60 hour suggests the door is opening...Hudson Bay Polar Vortex...stepping down...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml