Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio left the door cracked just a bit for some post frontal wintry weather as well.

[Portastorm]

Austin/San Antonio left the door cracked just a bit for some post frontal wintry weather as well.

I know and I wish they wouldn't have done that, srainhoutx. It seems like everytime they mention a snow/ice event this far out it never happens!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW 01/24/10

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE MORNING. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES FALL TO
CRITICAL VALUES FOR A CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NORTH. THE THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. COLD BUT DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 58

[gofrogs2]

What about forthe fort worth area what do you guys think that we are in for and what does the latest model runs saying aobu tthe precip and the cold.

[gofrogs2]

mcculley on wfaa just said possible snow next week around thursday.

[Ntxw]

mcculley on wfaa just said possible snow next week around thursday.

Lets see what tonight's GFS says, I'm expecting it to continue the colder trend to line up with the EC.

Edit: 0z GFS is yet further south.

[iorange55]

I'm liking the trend it looks like the Christmas storm, just further south. So hopefully that comes out to be a lot more snow for us in the Dallas area.

[gofrogs2]

so what does that mean further south will that help the temps cool down and give us more snow or what.

[Ntxw]

so what does that mean further south will that help the temps cool down and give us more snow or what.

Not saying we're going to get anything, but put it this way. If you recall the Christmas storm the low tracked pretty much over north Texas and everyone west\north of there were under blizzard conditions and snow amounts ranging from trace to 14 inches in Oklahoma City. Take that idea and shift the low down to maybe central Texas. Again far out but trends looking good.

[srainhoutx]

Upper Air Feature further WSW and slower. Hmmm...

[TrekkerCC]

Lets see what tonight's GFS says, I'm expecting it to continue the colder trend to line up with the EC.

Edit: 0z GFS is yet further south.

I'm liking the trend it looks like the Christmas storm, just further south. So hopefully that comes out to be a lot more snow for us in the Dallas area.

I'm also liking the 00z GFS trend for Thursday and Friday. The precipitation looks light as it is post-frontal, but GFS is showing a frozen column down to the surface late Thursday night and into Friday. We might get a dusting of snow (yea-I'm going to be conservative for now) throughout the DFW area.

-TrekkerCC

[Ntxw]

Upper Air Feature further WSW and slower. Hmmm...

Yeah, I noticed the GFS had a decent amount of precip lagging behind in W Texas. Perhaps that could be a surprise for other parts of Texas?

[attallaman]

Is it possible that this next potential cold outbreak could make it's way all the way down to the coastal regions of LA, MS, and AL?

Depending on how the game goes today, it could be really, really cold soon when hell freezes over.

The who dats team won, NOLA went crazy last night after the game. I think the Colts will be a hard team to beat, we shall see.

[attallaman]

OT ... who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?!

Hoping my boy Drew Brees does well and the Saints go marching into the Super Bowl!

Your boy and his team did good last night, the city of NOLA went totally crazy after the game, a good kind of crazy, not a bad kind of crazy like right after Katrina. Bourbon Street after the big game last night looked like Mardi Gras which was good for NOLA. I imagine the stores selling Saints items will be selling out soon. I know the manager at my local Walgreens is breathing a lot easier, he had tons of Saints items in his store last Friday which his boss in NOLA ordered shipped to him.

[msstateguy83]

a *MAJOR* WINTER STORM is for sure on the way folks... iam quite concerned about a fairly significant peroid of frz rain before the change over to snow across a large portion of central,west-central, south central ok into northern tx... we could see MAJOR accumulations of BOTH ICE & SNOW... right off the bat iam going w/a more
southern track possibly almost near the track of the christmas week storm...

IMPACTS:
.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 6 INCHES WIDE SPREAD ISOLATED AREAS OVER A FOOT+
.SLEET/FRZ RAIN MIX AS WELL WHEN THIS SYSTEM STARTS UP I WOULDNT BE SHOCKED BY
THE WAY THIS LOOKS TO SEE SOME AREAS PICK UP A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PLUS OF ICE
BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES...

. PEOPLE IN MOST OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL TX NEEDS TO PREPARE
NOW FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMLATIONS OF ICE & OR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL TV, RADIO OR NOAA WX RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THIS COULD PUT TRAVEL AT A STAND STILL.. ALSO MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE PLENTY OF BATTERYS, FLASH LIGHTS, CANDLES,EXC INCASE OF POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE
ICE...



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

0z EC has the storm track moving into Mexico and then along the Texas coast. Lets see if any trends follow it, if so a lot of Texas would be in for a surprise.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[iorange55]

The DFW NWS discussion kind of put a bummer on my mood, but this is what they were saying before Christmas, so you know we'll see.

[Ntxw]

The DFW NWS discussion kind of put a bummer on my mood, but this is what they were saying before Christmas, so you know we'll see.

At least they are mentioning it you know it's been on the back of their minds =P. Even the Houston nws left an opening for their forecast which is surprising.

HAVE KEPT LOW POPS GOING FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THU
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS A GOOD CHUNK
OF POLAR AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO
DROP TO AROUND -6C BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
PROFILES BEING COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP OVER OUR
NW HALF LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AND GIVEN THIS IS
STILL DAYS AWAY HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING ANYTHING IN FCST.
REGARDLESS...FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. A HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY AND COLD AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PATTERN REMAINS
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

[srainhoutx]

It was enough of a change along with the 00Z GFS temp profiles that Houston/Galveston mentioned wintry precip chance in NW zones. 96-108 hrs did show some sleet at IAH via the overnight GFS.

[msstateguy83]

i will even say rightnow i think this storm system has the chance to be even bigger then the christmas snow storm
with some areas if things come together right some areas could pick up over a foot and ahalf to two feet! i dont think thats over doing this system... stay tuned...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.