Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

The 18z nam so far is already showing signs of being further south with the onslaught of precip. Should temps follow can't really tell with what's available yet.

What we Winter wishers should be hoping for is the Low to stall out a bit, giving the Polar front more time to settle in and cool temps off a bit.

Actually ... if you're talking about the surface low ... I believe the slower that goes, the more the cold air gets held up. If you are referring to the upper level low ... that has less bearing on what the lower-level airmass does.

[gboudx]

Low should slow due to the southern track and a more easterly path

This sounds like it would be better for metroplexers who want wintry precip correct? For us eastplexers, I know the drill. Read this book before, we'll get almost nada. However, after the Saints/Vikings game Sunday night, I learned that the well-known ending can be re-written.

God Bless Brett Favre.

[somethingfunny]

Low should slow due to the southern track and a more easterly path

This sounds like it would be better for metroplexers who want wintry precip correct? For us eastplexers, I know the drill. Read this book before, we'll get almost nada. However, after the Saints/Vikings game Sunday night, I learned that the well-known ending can be re-written.

God Bless Brett Favre.

What do you mean? It ended exactly the way it always does.

Brett Farve throws a boneheaded interception at the end of a playoff game he could have won.

Snow falls on western DFW and the news stations go nuts over it, while we get rain with some interspersed flurries.

Same story every time.

[msstateguy83]

wow... nam 18z @ 60 hrs out.. now if the cold air gets down quick enough this could make for one very
big mess...

[Weatherdude20]

Low should slow due to the southern track and a more easterly path

This sounds like it would be better for metroplexers who want wintry precip correct? For us eastplexers, I know the drill.

Combine these quotes, and thats exactly what I'm saying Portastorm.

[gboudx]

Low should slow due to the southern track and a more easterly path

This sounds like it would be better for metroplexers who want wintry precip correct? For us eastplexers, I know the drill. Read this book before, we'll get almost nada. However, after the Saints/Vikings game Sunday night, I learned that the well-known ending can be re-written.

God Bless Brett Favre.

What do you mean? It ended exactly the way it always does.

Brett Farve throws a boneheaded interception at the end of a playoff game he could have won.

Snow falls on western DFW and the news stations go nuts over it, while we get rain with some interspersed flurries.

Same story every time.

Actually the way it always ends is the other team drives down for a winning FG to beat the Saints. I've seen that movie, many, many, many times. Trust me on this.

Back to the weather.

[cycloneye]

For those who are straying away from the winter weather,I think we have a Sports forum where you can talk all you want about any sport.

viewforum.php?f=17

[Weatherdude20]

Back to the weather

[CaptinCrunch]

weather is a sport, you got 2 teams the Arctic Fronts vs the Upper Lows, and they are playing here in NTX/OKC....I'm pulling for the Arctic Fronts on this one!!

[Weatherdude20]

HURRY UP COLD FRONTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

[wxman57]

18Z NAM is significantly dryer post-frontal from the D-FW area to the Wichita Falls area. It's a bit warmer in terms of thickness levels as well. Should have the full 2m data in shortly and can run a comparison meteogram to the 12Z.

[WacoWx]

UPDATE FROM DFW:

...WINTER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO
WACO...TO TERRELL...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OCCURRING FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO GAINESVILLE WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WHERE THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK. HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...RESIDENTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR ANY CHANGES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[msstateguy83]

my forecast for snow amts could very well be on the high side, the southern track may not happen this iam fairly confident will
though & anyone in this red shaded area please get prepared for a ***MAJOR ICE STORM***

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

The one thing I'm not clear on as far as that Fort Worth AFD is the mention of freezing drizzle. All the vertical profiles I've seen indicate that once the surface temps drop to freezing that all the moisture above the surface will be in a sub-freezing layer. That means snow would be more likely than freezing drizzle, as freezing drizzle requires a warm layer aloft. There could be a brief period as the rain changes to snow that small warm pockets aloft could melt the snow on its way down, resulting in some light freezing rain. But such a changeover should occur quickly in the strong cold air advection behind the surface low.

[wxman57]

my forecast for snow amts could very well be on the high side, the southern track may not happen this iam fairly confident will
though & anyone in this red shaded area please get prepared for a ***MAJOR ICE STORM***

http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/2280/icez.jpg[

I'm still not seeing projected vertical profiles in that red region that would suggest any extended period of freezing rain. It looks like the big freezing rain threat will be to the east in Arkansas and TN/KY. Freezing rain accumulations across southern OK will probably be on the order of 1/4" or so. That area in red, particularly up in OK could get some heavy snow, though.

What are you basing such an extreme forecast of heavy freezing rain on? Or are you including sleet accumulations as well in that 1.25"? Of course, sleet relies on very cold air aloft below a shallow warm layer. That sort of profile won't be lasting very long up there. Instead, look for quite warm air aloft to be quickly replaced by sub-freezing air. That supports a more rapid changeover from rain to snow.

[Ntxwx]

my forecast for snow amts could very well be on the high side, the southern track may not happen this iam fairly confident will
though & anyone in this red shaded area please get prepared for a ***MAJOR ICE STORM***

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Ahhh ! thats where i live!

[msstateguy83]

any ice in bridgeport area should be very light likely border line on this red shaded area at or less then the 0.25" i would expect the major iceing if you wanted to narrow it down to be in sc ok s of the okc area say from pauls valley to ardmore area...

[msstateguy83]

wxman57 i just looked with more detail, at length at the 18z it almost looks like there has been a 50 mile or so jog to the north on the actual system agree?

[DentonGal]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...OR RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE.

BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WACO TO TERRELL TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS.

[msstateguy83]

earlyer when i looked at the BUFKIT algorithm showed nearly 2 inches for oun frzing rain...