Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Either way I'll be happy I kind of like a cold rain, but i'm still holding out hope for some winter weather here I don't really trust the models when it comes to winter weather they never seem to really get it right. Something always seems to change a few hours out, and it changes it for the better, or worse. We'll see which one it is this time.

[msstateguy83]

so u guys dont think i should be getting to disapointed just yet? lol

[Ntxw]

Thats disappointing.

Meh, it's not gospel. It's only the GFS.

The Euro could opine differently in a little bit. If tomorrow's 12z GFS continues this trend then you can start thinking it might be on to something.

I still think from msstateguy83's backyard west through the Tx Panhandle and back northeast through the land of Sam Bradford, they're feel winter's wrath big time!

Can't give in till the last moment =P learned our lesson from the Christmas storm. Any chance at squeezing it out no matter how high orange prices go, going for it! I blame this on iorange's lack of negativity!

[wall_cloud]

so u guys dont think i should be getting to disapointed just yet? lol

I'm disappointed that I'm going to get snow. I hate that white crap.

[Portastorm]

so u guys dont think i should be getting to disapointed just yet? lol

No ... but I would suggest a healthy supply of firewood and batteries if you end up losing power due to freezing rain!

[msstateguy83]

HAHAHA yeah iam well aware of how it looks on that end... that is no damn fun for sure...
would rather have another snow storm anyday over that ice, just hope & pray it does not
get on the high end of the amts if it does it could get ugly quick around here with lots of power
outages...

[utweather]

Hello, I just signed up. I have been following since the new year.
I have experienced a lot of dfw and austin weather over the last 30 years. Took a couple of climate and weather classes at college and have studied extreme weather events over the years. I have enjoyed the discussions and emotions of this board.
Anyway here is my wish map for Portastorm. I'm not sure how reliable this snow depth map is, but maybe Friday morning a brief burst of wet snow for Austin???


Sorry not sure how to paste map..
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5209 ... 3snowv.png

Basically shows a streak of snow thru south central Texas, maybe a small minor disturbance or something..

[Portastorm]

so u guys dont think i should be getting to disapointed just yet? lol

I'm disappointed that I'm going to get snow. I hate that white crap.

I'll trade you my possible squall line/severe wx for your snow. Deal? (Knowing you're a storm-chasing fan I bet you'll be interested).

[Portastorm]

Hello, I just signed up. I have been following since the new year.
I have experienced a lot of dfw and austin weather over the last 30 years. Took a couple of climate and weather classes at college and have studied extreme weather events over the years. I have enjoyed the discussions and emotions of this board.
Anyway here is my wish map for Portastorm. I'm not sure how reliable this snow depth map is, but maybe Friday morning a brief burst of wet snow for Austin???


Sorry not sure how to paste map..
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5209 ... 3snowv.png

Basically shows a streak of snow thru south central Texas, maybe a small minor disturbance or something..

You're a good man! I'll take that ray of hope to bed with me tonight.

[vbhoutex]

Welcome aboard!!

[txtiff]

Hello, I just signed up. I have been following since the new year.
I have experienced a lot of dfw and austin weather over the last 30 years. Took a couple of climate and weather classes at college and have studied extreme weather events over the years. I have enjoyed the discussions and emotions of this board.
Anyway here is my wish map for Portastorm. I'm not sure how reliable this snow depth map is, but maybe Friday morning a brief burst of wet snow for Austin???


Sorry not sure how to paste map..
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5209 ... 3snowv.png

Basically shows a streak of snow thru south central Texas, maybe a small minor disturbance or something..

You're a good man! I'll take that ray of hope to bed with me tonight.

Ummmm can I get a ray of hope too??? please....

[wall_cloud]

so u guys dont think i should be getting to disapointed just yet? lol

I'm disappointed that I'm going to get snow. I hate that white crap.

I'll trade you my possible squall line/severe wx for your snow. Deal? (Knowing you're a storm-chasing fan I bet you'll be interested).

I'd that that trade every time! I'd even sweeten the pot a bit by giving you our Red Flags.

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KOUN 270421
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1021 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING
FORECAST LOWS. MEANWHILE... A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
RUNS INDICATE THAT EACH IS STICKING TO ITS GUNS CONCERNING THE
EVER-CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
NAM BRINGS THE 850 MB 0C LINE INTO THE OKC AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING... WHILE THE GFS HAS IT A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH BY
THAT TIME. THE NAM`S SOLUTION PAINTS MORE ICE FOR THE OKC AREA...
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A MORE RAPID CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW.
MEANWHILE... THE STRONG 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DELIVER A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM... WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO QUITE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS MORE QUICKLY. SEE LITTLE TO CHANGE IN
CURRENT FORECAST DISTRIBUTION OF ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL CONCERNING THE TIMING OF TRANSITION OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES IMPROVES.

[msstateguy83]

sounds like oun is leaning towards a quicker change over to snow up that way...

[txtiff]

sounds like oun is leaning towards a quicker change over to snow up that way...

Do the FALLS freeze up that way when it gets that cold?

[Portastorm]

BTW, as srainhoutx alluded to earlier today, the month of February holds great promise for noteworthy winter weather for the Southern Plains and much of the US.

Don Sutherland has just posted over in this thread (link below) and it's worth a good look:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107373&start=40

[msstateguy83]

iam off to bed, modeled out for the day lol i will be here on and off for the day tomorrow posting my
thoughts. anyone with any questions, thoughts send em to my pm box and i will respond as soon
as i possibly can..

below is a trusty source to keep an eye on sometimes more reliable then any model out there
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SWR/WV/&NUMBLOOP=10

[msstateguy83]

one last thought maybe its my eyes being tired seems to be moving ese, def seems to have some sorta s-ward movement on it maybe its just me lol

[katheria]

one last thought maybe its my eyes being tired seems to be moving ese, def seems to have some sorta s-ward movement on it maybe its just me lol

nope its not just you... i see it also...ese movement...

[srainhoutx]

one last thought maybe its my eyes being tired seems to be moving ese, def seems to have some sorta s-ward movement on it maybe its just me lol

Entrance region does look to be just S of San Diego in the Baja region. Let's see were it is tomorrow morning.