Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[cheezyWXguy]

one last thought maybe its my eyes being tired seems to be moving ese, def seems to have some sorta s-ward movement on it maybe its just me lol

Entrance region does look to be just S of San Diego in the Baja region. Let's see were it is tomorrow morning.

Right now it looks to be at the same latitude as where the 0z gfs has it making landfall, but its still offshore and move ese...

[Ntxw]

one last thought maybe its my eyes being tired seems to be moving ese, def seems to have some sorta s-ward movement on it maybe its just me lol

Entrance region does look to be just S of San Diego in the Baja region. Let's see were it is tomorrow morning.

That and how much of a northern turn later on.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM suggests a potent storm as well. A tad slower and more wrap around moisture as well. Infact, that guidance suggests some limited wrap around into parts of SE and E TX. Upper Low track similar to the GFS and surface low forming off the NW/N GOM Coastal areas.

[Ntxw]

You're always the glimmer of hope, keep it up Srainhoutx

Edit: 0z EC looks suppressed.

[Ntxw]

DFW from the nws

Thursday Night: Rain before midnight, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Low around 32. East wind 10 to 20 mph becoming north. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

[DentonGal]

Good morning folks. This from the NWS Fort Worth this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
POTENT STORM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO CONTINUES SHOWING A SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY...AND SHOULD EASILY REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ALTHOUGH
SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS BEING DISPLACED SOMEWHAT...MOMENTUM OF
CYCLONE WILL SOON BE EXHAUSTED SINCE IT REMAINS CONNECTED TO
DISTORTED POLAR STREAM. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW WILL NOT TRACK AS
FAR EQUATORWARD AS SYSTEM TWO WEEKS EARLIER. INSTEAD...IT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING WEST TEXAS THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS MOISTURE NEAR 850MB
SURGES INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GLIDING UP THE 295K
SURFACE. BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING WHEN MOIST UPGLIDE
IS DEEPER AND STEEPER. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY...850-700MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY...SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 60KTS BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW...
THOUGH EVOLUTION OF 850MB LOW IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONG
OPERATIONAL RUNS. SFC FRONT WILL ENTER NW ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND PLOW THROUGH CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFRONTAL PW VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1.50 INCHES...NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR JANUARY. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD...REGARDLESS OF PLACEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL
FEATURES OR VIGOROUS JET MAX ALOFT. SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT AND ABOVE 850MB WILL ASSURE A DEEP WARM
NOSE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LARGELY INADEQUATE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ONCE
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS. THUS...PRIMARY PRECIP MODE WOULD
BE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH DEPTH OF
SUBFREEZING SFC LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SLEET...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. WATCH AREA MAY SEE 1/4 INCH ICE
ACCUMULATION...REGARDLESS OF EMBEDDED SLEET. FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FREEZING PRECIP GOLDTHWAITE...TO WAXAHACHIE...
TO EMORY. FOR SPECIFIC IMPACTS WITHIN WATCH AREA...PLEASE SEE WSW.
OUTSIDE OF WATCH AREA...ANY ICING WILL BE PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE DEPTH OF DRY SURFACE LAYER WILL INCREASE
AS DEPTH OF PRECIP-PRODUCING LAYER DECREASES. AS A RESULT...
FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE OF FAR GREATER CONCERN. THE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ICY IMPACTS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...
WHEN DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S.

[Ntxw]

I don't really like ice storms, I hope if it doesn't snow then it might as well be only rain. No ice please!



Edit: Hmm that's interesting, on satellite it looks to still be further south than that and not on shore yet.

[Portastorm]

What an amazing system this promises to be. Within Texas, at some point Thursday, we'll have a near blizzard raging in the Panhandle, snow and sleet falling in the South Plains, an ice storm along the Red River counties, and severe thunderstorms with possibly a tornado or two rumbling in the south central and eastern/southeastern parts of the state.

Only in Texas!

[wxman57]

I'm still not understanding the freezing rain the DFW office is talking about. Projected vertical profiles didn't indicate a warm layer aloft and sub-freezing at the surface yesterday. Will check when I get in to the office. I'll be in meetings almost all day today, so won't be able to look at the weather much.

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO
WACO...TO TERRELL...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE. A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.

SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OCCURRING FROM LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WHERE THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK. HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...RESIDENTS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR ANY CHANGES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[DentonGal]

I'm still not understanding the freezing rain the DFW office is talking about. Projected vertical profiles didn't indicate a warm layer aloft and sub-freezing at the surface yesterday. Will check when I get in to the office. I'll be in meetings almost all day today, so won't be able to look at the weather much.

You could always call in sick We'll miss you expertise today!

[Ntxw]

Second that wxman you know you want to stay home and go cycling before the chilly stuff comes ! I hope you are right about the missing warm layer aloft, i'll take your rain and dry air after! (since it won't snow much)

[wxman57]

Just got to the office and looked at projected soundings for DFW. There's a small window from about 4am to 9am where temps at the surface drop below (or near) freezing with warmer air aloft. But after then, all the moisture aloft is in air well below freezing (what little moisture there is).

I'll make up a few meteograms to check out the latest GFS vs. NAM projections for DFW and SPS. First meeting isn't until 8:30.

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit surprised that the 5H Low is just now beginning to make the turn toward Baja...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[wxman57]

Ok, here are the latest meteograms. By the way, I'm just going to the ARL web site, selecting the model and fields I want to plot, and using MS Excel to make the meteograms in Degrees F vs. C (and prettying it up a lot).
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

First the GFS for Dallas and SPS. Neither shows much moisture in the cold air. Most precip falls in rain with temps in the 40s and 50s:


Wichita Falls:


Now the 06Z NAM. The NAM has been forecasting more post-frontal moisture in both locations. It still does, but it is a bit warmer post-frontal - certainly in the D-FW area. Still, not a lot of moisture once temps drop to freezing:



Wichita Falls - more cold air moisture than the GFS, but only about 0.1" of moisture predicted to fall once temps drop below 32.

[brewskymc]

I am a bit surprised that the 5H Low is just now beginning to make the turn toward Baja...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

Frequent lurker... first time poster. I appreciate all of the input from the professional and amateur mets on this board. Very informative...

I'm by no means an expert on this stuff... but, from what I'm seeing, it appears that the PV is holding strong and is going to suppress the track of the UL further south than is currently being forecasted by the models. I see it tracking between Hillsboro and Waco. I'm probably off base, but that is how it looks from my perspective. Correct me if I'm way off base here.

[Weatherdude20]

I am a bit surprised that the 5H Low is just now beginning to make the turn toward Baja...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

Frequent lurker... first time poster. I appreciate all of the input from the professional and amateur mets on this board. Very informative...

I'm by no means an expert on this stuff... but, from what I'm seeing, it appears that the PV is holding strong and is going to suppress the track of the UL further south than is currently being forecasted by the models. I see it tracking between Hillsboro and Waco. I'm probably off base, but that is how it looks from my perspective. Correct me if I'm way off base here.

Well I think thats what me, and a couple of other of the amatur mets suggested, like Msstateguy83, somewhere along the southerly track due to interference.

[msstateguy83]

iam going with a further north-ward track for now with heavyest snow up into the tx panhandle region.. HOWEVER as we know sometimes these low's have a mind of their own so i will def have my eye on the track of the low on satellite imagery.

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit surprised that the 5H Low is just now beginning to make the turn toward Baja...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

Frequent lurker... first time poster. I appreciate all of the input from the professional and amateur mets on this board. Very informative...

I'm by no means an expert on this stuff... but, from what I'm seeing, it appears that the PV is holding strong and is going to suppress the track of the UL further south than is currently being forecasted by the models. I see it tracking between Hillsboro and Waco. I'm probably off base, but that is how it looks from my perspective. Correct me if I'm way off base here.

Welcome to the Board. Let's see how things unfold. At this time the track does appear a bit S, but that can change as the trough deepens. Right now the Upper Low appears to making it's way E at the base of the trough. If we see a shift S via the 12Z runs, then we can address changes that may be ahead if any.

[msstateguy83]

srainhoutx glad you see the sward track to =) just dont want to get anyones hopes up to high yet, we still have
plenty of time for the northward turn but there is always hope..