Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

PER NWS FTW

[srainhoutx]

Some housekeeping items regarding the 12Z NAM...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1322Z WED JAN 27 2010
12Z NCEP MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME WITH GOOD DATA
COVERAGE. INCLUDED WERE...14 AK/30 CANADIAN/74 CONUS/8
MEXICAN AND 6 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FOR THE NAM START.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
LAP/76405 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.
VHA/76743 - GROUND EQ FAILURE...10142.
KJP/78397 - DELETED HGTS/TEMPS 400MB AND ABV...LOW/COLD.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[msstateguy83]

this is just my opinion but i would if you are anywhere in this region STAY TUNED... b/c just by the looks of the upper level low track on sat imagery i see possibly *MAJOR CHANGES* coming in the forecast track if we dont see movement to the north in the next little bit. this of course would very much change who gets what and how much... so just stay tuned...



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

The only real change I see via the NAM is a touch colder into Central/SE TX as well as a slower progression E. Of note is the wrap around moisture associated with the Upper Low and a split in the Polar Vortex near hour 42 and beyond.

[Portastorm]

this is just my opinion but i would if you are anywhere in this region STAY TUNED... b/c just by the looks of the upper level low track on sat imagery i see possibly *MAJOR CHANGES* coming in the forecast track if we dont see movement to the north in the next little bit. this of course would very much change who gets what and how much... so just stay tuned...



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

You *might* be on to something msstateguy83. Has anyone seen the 12z NAM yet? Compare the 12z NAM at 500 mb for 54 hrs to the 0z NAM at 500 mb for 66 hrs. The new run is further south with the upper level trough. Hmmm ....

[jasons2k]

The only real change I see via the NAM is a touch colder into Central/SE TX as well as a slower progression E. Of note is the wrap around moisture associated with the Upper Low and a split in the Polar Vortex near hour 42 and beyond.

Yeah, my forecasted lows for Fri/Sat from the NWS have been lowered to 30F. I can deal with 30 degrees, I just don't want it any lower than that...

[msstateguy83]

DO NOT... DONT NOT TRUST THE MODELS all the time.... iam telling you sometimes meteorology is more then trusting models gotta keep an eye on other wx tools as well i might not be a meteorologist yet but just a good piece of advice, we saw this christmas eve....

[msstateguy83]

i have my graphic dusted off and ready to go but iam afraid to put it up yet dont wanna go that far out yet.. i will just say this i see this thing being off by as much as 150+ - 200 miles.. so you can do the math... stay tuned all i gotta say is stay tuned lol

[srainhoutx]

DO NOT... DONT NOT TRUST THE MODELS all the time.... iam telling you sometimes meteorology is more then trusting models gotta keep an eye on other wx tools as well i might not be a meteorologist yet but just a good piece of advice, we saw this christmas eve....

You're preaching to the choir msstateguy83.

[Portastorm]

DO NOT... DONT NOT TRUST THE MODELS all the time.... iam telling you sometimes meteorology is more then trusting models gotta keep an eye on other wx tools as well i might not be a meteorologist yet but just a good piece of advice, we saw this christmas eve....

You're preaching to the choir msstateguy83.

Can I have an AMEN?! Yes Brother Msstateguy83 ... I'm with you on that!!

A good forecaster -- as srainhoutx likes to say -- uses ALL the tools in his/her toolbox. Computer models are just one tool.

[jasons2k]

DO NOT... DONT NOT TRUST THE MODELS all the time.... iam telling you sometimes meteorology is more then trusting models gotta keep an eye on other wx tools as well i might not be a meteorologist yet but just a good piece of advice, we saw this christmas eve....

Making an accurate forecast also requires patience.

Earlier this morning you posted that the storm would take a more northern track. Then just 30 minutes later you posted we should expect 'MAJOR MAJOR changes to the forecast' based on recent satellite images showing a more southerly track.

Meteorologists rarely make "major major" changes to their forecasts; they don't swing their forecasts back and forth all day long based on the latest model runs or a few satellite loops. If a meteorologist is making an accurate and consistently reliable forecast, there should be no need to make 'major changes' as he/she should already have a decent understanding of the situation.

Of course forecasts do evolve and change over time - as they should as new data comes in. But if a forecaster/meterologist is making major changes back and forth...it shows the forecaster is either 1) not confident in the forecast 2) it's a cursory forecast without sound meterological analysis or 3) is missing something.

[WacoWx]

i agree with you ^^^ but thats why he has stated ad nausium that he is NOT a meteorologist. he's having fun and doing nothing wrong.

[msstateguy83]

that was per the models which the models dont mean everything, if i was making a forecast on tv, radio had more on the line i would use more caution, i was just throwing all my thoughts out there. but honestly the sat imagery to me holds MUCH more weight then the models at this point.

[srainhoutx]

DO NOT... DONT NOT TRUST THE MODELS all the time.... iam telling you sometimes meteorology is more then trusting models gotta keep an eye on other wx tools as well i might not be a meteorologist yet but just a good piece of advice, we saw this christmas eve....

Making an accurate forecast also requires patience.

Earlier this morning you posted that the storm would take a more northern track. Then just 30 minutes later you posted we should expect 'MAJOR MAJOR changes to the forecast' based on recent satellite images showing a more southerly track.

Meteorologists rarely make "major major" changes to their forecasts; they don't swing their forecasts back and forth all day long based on the latest model runs or a few satellite loops. If a meteorologist is making an accurate and consistently reliable forecast, there should be no need to make 'major changes' as he/she should already have a decent understanding of the situation.

Of course forecasts do evolve and change over time - as they should as new data comes in. But if a forecaster/meterologist is making major changes back and forth...it shows the forecaster is either 1) not confident in the forecast 2) it's a cursory forecast without sound meterological analysis or 3) is missing something.

Excellent point Jason. This is why we see a conservative official forecast from the NWS several days prior to any event. The "cry wolf" theory comes to mind.

[msstateguy83]

yeah, which goes to the point to why some ppl get so mad or however you wanna put it frustrated with the nws but those guys once you forecast something major they CANT go back you know, cant be jumping the gun or going from this to that. sorry if my thoughts confused everyone just throwing everything out there this am BUT i urge everyone the sat image as i said holds more weight and we should watch it VERY VERY closely in the coming hours...

[msstateguy83]

i will say this the only graphics i have made and put on here 'with confidence' is a much southward track... which i posted yesterday and will repost later if the trends of a further southward track of the low holds true.

[jasons2k]

he's having fun and doing nothing wrong.

The Storm2K staff responsible for moderating the site will make this judgement call, thank you.

[utweather]

>i will say this the only graphics i have made and put on here 'with confidence' is a much southward track... which i posted yesterday and will repost later if the trends of a further southward track of the low holds true.<

As such I am without java loop at work, I am looking forward to see what it is you see.

[wxman57]

Meteograms I posted don't look right. Need to head out to a meeting very shortly - not sure if I have time to correct them.

[Portastorm]

Speaking of model trends ... 12z GFS is running. Through 48 hours, I already notice it has slowed the UL trough some and lags a little more energy further behind as compared to the 0z run. Below I will include the 0z depiction first, then the 12z. This is at the 500 mb level.