SPO : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA 06F (10P)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7S 172.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING IN TOWARDS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA (NSTU), IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 21 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE AT 997.8 MB. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) HAS FALLEN 6.4 MB
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST FLATTENS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
RELAXES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR GIVEN THE 24-HOUR SLP TREND AT PAGO
PAGO AND THE CURRENT METSAT SIGNATURE.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/1352 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [997HPA] CENTRE NEAR 15.1S 170.3W AT 271200
UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE
WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. O6F LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG A MONSOON TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
A NORTHWEST MONSOONAL SURGE IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS. 06F IS EXPECTED TO BE STEREED SOUTHEAST BY A
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
DVORAK BASED ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT=2.5, MET=2.0, PT=2.5. FT
BASED ON PT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
FORECAST SOUTHEAST TRACK AND DEEPENS IT.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
272000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 169.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 169.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.1S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.8S 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.9S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.5S 165.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.1S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5S 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.5S 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 169.4W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very well-organized system

[Macrocane]

It's very well organized and is producing very strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 018 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/1546 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone NISHA 06F centre [995hPa] category 1 was located
near 15 decimal 7 South 169 decimal 5 West at 271500 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 15.7S 169.5W at 271500 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at 12 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in
sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and within 60
miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 17.1S 168.2W at 280000 UTC
and near 18.1S 167.0W at 281200 UTC

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj

This warning cancels and replaces warning 017.

[HURAKAN]

TPPS10 PGTW 271829

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA)

B. 27/1730Z

C. 15.9S

D. 169.8W

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0 STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .70 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GATES

[tolakram]

Floater is on it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/1806 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA 06F [995HPA] CENTRE NEAR 15.7S 169.5W AT
271500 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION AND OUTFLOW ALOFT
REMAINS GOOD. O6F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG A MONSOON
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. A
NORTHWEST MONSOONAL SURGE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. NISHA IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDER A
NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
DVORAK BASED ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT=3.0, PT=3.0. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK INITIALLY AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE RECURVING IT NORTHEAST.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280300UTC NEAR 17.1S 168.2W MOVING SOUTHEAST 12
KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281500UTC NEAR 18.1S 167.0W MOVING SOUTHEAST 12
KNOTS WITH 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 290300UTC NEAR 18.9S 166.0W MOVING SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS WITH 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 291500UTC NEAR 19.5S 165.4W MOVING SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS WITH 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC NISHA will be issued
around 272000 UTC or earlier.

[HurricaneBill]

Cyclones tend to form in this area of the SPAC during El Ninos. However, they can sometimes form during La Ninas as well.

Ironically, during the 1982-1983 El Nino, there was a Cyclone Nisha in this area.

[HURAKAN]

28/0222 UTC 17.9S 167.0W T3.5/3.5 NISHA -- Southeast Pacifi

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 167.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 167.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.4S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.9S 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.4S 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 167.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 10P HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING TO
A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
272042Z TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE WAS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OTHER AGENCIES, WHICH
INCLUDED A 2.5/2.5 DVORAK FIX FROM NFFN AND PHFO, DID NOT APPEAR TO
REPRESENT THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, SINCE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAU AIRPORT ON MANUA ISLAND BETWEEN
1054Z AND 1654Z INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 PLUS KNOTS WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 43 KNOTS OBSERVED AT 1654Z. CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION SINCE 1654Z, A 2.5/3.0 DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW, AND A
3.0/3.0 DVORAK FROM KNES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
45 KNOTS. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE MID-LEVEL, BUT IS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 72.
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
STR, AND LEAD TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEYOND TAU 96. A FAVOR-
ABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, BUT INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 72 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/0910 UTC 2010 UTC.

***CORRECTON TO FORECAST AND OUTLOOK TIMES AND POSITIONS***

TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA 06F [990HPA] CENTRE NEAR 18.1S 166.1W AT
280600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE AND PRIMARY BANDS STEADILY WARMED PAST 6
HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD, DESPITE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
SOUTH AND EAST AND FAIR ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING SHEAR. SST AROUND 30C. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST
BY DEEP LAYER MEAN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. DVORAK BASED 0.6 WRAP ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT=3.0, PT=3.0, MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE RECURVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800UTC NEAR 19.2S 164.4W MOVING SE 15 KNOTS
WITH 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290600UTC NEAR 19.8S 163.0W MOVING ESE 12 KNOTS
WITH 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291800UTC NEAR 20.1S 161.7W MOVING ESE 10 KNOTS
WITH 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300600UTC NEAR 20.0S 160.3W MOVING ESE 08 KNOTS
WITH 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NISHA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 281430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 164.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 164.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.3S 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1S 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.4S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.4S 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 164.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (NISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 281136Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS WELL AS DEEP,
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 10P AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH TAU 96 WHEN NISHA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT REORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, TC NISHA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS (>28
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDN MODEL WHICH
TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD DUE TO A FORECAST OF WEAKER INTENSITIES.
THIS FORECAST FOLLOWED THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest