Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

This smells of the typical DFW ice event over the last few years. Bridges and overpasses. Won't get cold enough for anything solid to fall. NWS has the line drawn through the heart of the metroplex. Of course things can change drastically in 24 hours, as we all know!

The eastplexers dread that line

[gboudx]

This smells of the typical DFW ice event over the last few years. Bridges and overpasses. Won't get cold enough for anything solid to fall. NWS has the line drawn through the heart of the metroplex. Of course things can change drastically in 24 hours, as we all know!

The eastplexers dread that line

Actually, if the line is the demarcation for ice vs rain, then it's just fine where it is.

[msstateguy83]

LIVE WEATHER BRIEFING FROM KOCO TV OKC CHIEF METEOROLOGIST RICK MITCHELL @ 1PM

http://www.koco.com/video/22356041/index.html

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: SPC expands Slight Risk Area to include S Central and parts of SE TX...will have a Topic in the USA Weather side shortly to cover the Severe Weather side of the storm.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN THROUGH S
CNTRL AND SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY. A BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN BAJA ADVANCES ENE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WWD
THROUGH NRN AND WRN TX. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX OVERNIGHT.

...SW THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX...

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS STILL UNDERGOING MODIFICATION
WITH NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN HEIGHT FALL ZONE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD
ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW TO MID 60F
DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS S AND S-CNTRL TX AND MID TO UPPER 50F
FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA. A RESERVOIR OF 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE
THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL
INVERSION ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE 12Z RAOBS FROM WRN THROUGH S TX
WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR
WILL PROBABLY STAY CAPPED UNTIL ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SEWD ADVANCING FRONT INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN END OF THE MCS WILL BE BASED NEAR
THE SURFACE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 01/27/2010

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a change via the HPC on surface low track...

[Ntxw]

Srainhoutx I think the question is where does the upper level low track. At least for us north Texans

Edit: What a complex system so many possible scenarios yet so close to the event.

[DentonGal]

LIVE WEATHER BRIEFING FROM KOCO TV OKC CHIEF METEOROLOGIST RICK MITCHELL @ 1PM

http://www.koco.com/video/22356041/index.html

Thanks! That was very informative. Thank you also for ALL your enthusiasm, explanations, predictions and input on this board. It wouldn't be the same without you!

[HockeyTx82]

wow

Wow what? Ok so I have been slammed all day at work. I went back in and read what I could from the previous posts, but is the Low tracking further south now? How are things looking for NTX? Rain, frozen stuff? Anyhow, not trying to get out of reading everything, but just don't have much time today.

[Ntxw]

wow

Wow what? Ok so I have been slammed all day at work. I went back in and read what I could from the previous posts, but is the Low tracking further south now? How are things looking for NTX? Rain, frozen stuff? Anyhow, not trying to get out of reading everything, but just don't have much time today.

Looks like a lot of rain from the latest data and that's about it, few locations west and north might see some light icing from what I can interpret.

[msstateguy83]

to follow my thoughts in real time follow me on twitter just started a new acct on there
will post updates as needed:D
http://twitter.com/msstateguy83

[Weatherdude20]

OMG, they just changed the high here from 31 to 37 on friday.. and the low from 29 to 32 and 90% of freezing rain to 100% of showers. Im pissed anybody wanna explain... cuz i was going a whole different direction....

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF Disco...perhaps some of the questions will be answered after reading and why things are so fluid...as I noted yesterday there appeared to be some convective issues seen at that time in some of the guidance. That senario is creating problems in the form of convective feedback issues in todays runs. Stay Tuned. It's going to be a bumpy ride...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/0000 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
PTRN ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN MIXED WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPG SWD
TO THE UPR GRT LKS...WHILE SPLIT FLOW/WEAK REX BLOCK REMAINS OVR
THE WRN U.S.. MDLS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE POLAR VORTEX AND ASSOCD
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVR THE NERN U.S.. PRBLMS ARISE OVR THE GRT
BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLNS AS TIMG/STRENGTHEN OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV EVOLVG INTO A POTENT VORTEX IS SHOWG SOME DIFFS ON DAY
1...WITH LRGR DIFFS IN LATER PDS.

...NERN U.S....
SVRL SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
AND PULL STG HGT FALLS/SFC COLD FNT SEWD ACRS THE REGION THAT WL
PROVIDE A PD OF DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT ERLY IN THE PD. INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR ACRS THE WARMER LKS WL INDUCE LK EFFECT SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FNTL BNDRY WITH LCLLY HVY SNOWS TO THE SE OF THE GRT
LKS. SYNOPTIC MSTR CONTRIBUTION IS NOT THAT GRT...SO NOT XPCTG
REALLY BIG AMTS AT THIS TIME. SOME LGT PCPN WL FALL ERLY TNGT THRU
THE OH VLY TO MID MS VLY ALNG/AHD OF THE SHRTWV/SFC BNDRY.

...INTERIOR SWRN U.S. INTO SRN PLNS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BREWING OVR THE REGION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SLGT DIFFS IN THE GUID. ALSO CONCERNED ABT CNVCTN DVLPG ON THU AND
PSBLY INTERRUPTING THE STG SRLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION. SOME
GUID IS SHOWG SIGNS OF FEEDBACK WITH QUESTIONABLE MIDLVL SHRTWVS
DVLPG AHD OF THE MAIN MIDLVL FEATURE OVR THE SRN HI PLNS. SHRTWV
OF CONCERN IS WRKG THRU NWRN MEX THIS AFTN...UNDER A HIER LAT RDG.
ADDTNL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPG THRU THE GRT BASIN WL LKLY PHASE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV INTO THE A CLSD LOW OVR ERN NM ON
THU. PRBLMS ARISE DUE TO SOME GUID...ESPCLY THE NAM FORMG A LEAD
SHRTWV AHD OF THE MAIN SYS THAT RESULTS IN A VRY COMPACT CLSD LOW.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG A LEAD SHRTWV...BUT MUCH WEAKER
AND AS A RESULT...A MUCH BROADER CLSD LOW DVLPG OVR THE REGION.
THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLU. PCPN FM THE MDLS IS VARIABLE AS THEY ARE
HANDLING THE MOIST INFLOW/LOLVL THERMAL FORCG DIFFERENTLY. PRBLM
WE ARE HAVG IS THE BIG PCPN AMTS OVR THE SRN TX PHNDL...WHICH ARE
MUCH ABV SEASONAL NRMLS AND ACTUALLY QUITE HI FOR EVEN A VRY
MOIST/WRM SUMMER DAY. MSTR FEEDG NWD FM THE GULF OF MEX WL CONT TO
SATURATE THE REGION TNGT WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT OVR THE SRN
ROCKIES ERLY TNGT...THEN SPRDG EWD ALNG/N THE SFC/8H BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE SRN PLNS. MDLS SHOW VRY STG LOLVL THERMAL
FORCG/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STG CVRG IN THE 8H-7H LYR...ALTHO THERE
ARE DIFFS IN PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION OF THE STGR LOLVL CVRG. SREF PW
ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML OVR THE SRN HI PLNS ERLY THU
MRNG...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL TX BY THU AFTN AS HGT
FALLS PUSH ACRS THE REGION AND INITIAL UPR JET STREAK PUSHES EWD.
MDLS ARE HINTING AT CNVCTN EVOLVG INTO PSBLY A SQUALL LN AND MOVG
EWD THRU NRN TX...ALNG/S OF THE E-W FNTL BNDRY...WITH CELLS DVLPG
SWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.25 INCHES IS FCST
THRU CNTRL TX THAT IS ALIGNED WITH A ZONE OF MOD/STG LOLVL
CVRG/LIS BLO ZERO AND COULD EASILY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. LATER
TNGT AND ESPCLY ON THU THE INCRSG SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX WL
SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES WITH VALUES 3-5 STDS ABV NRML
AIMED INTO NWRN TX ERLY...THEN SHIFTING INTO CNTRL TX BY THE END
OF THE PD. THIS IS ANOTHER GD SIGN OF CNVCTN WRKG EWD AND BCMG
ALIGNED WITH THE MOIST AXIS/MST FLUX AXIS. WITH THE CLSD LOW STILL
BACK OVR NM BY LATE IN THE PD...THERE COULD BE A SCNDRY SWATH OF
MOD PCPN ASSOCD WITH AN UPR JET STREAK THAT WOULD FAVOR PULLING
PCPN NWWD THRU THE NRN TX PHNDL INTO NERN NM. TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE SIX HR PROGS. OVERALL...XPCT A LRG REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN
THRU THE REGION WITH THE HVIER PCPN FOCUSED FM NWRN INTO NCNTRL TX
WHERE CVNCTN COULD BOOST RNFL AMTS TO 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
PCPN TYPE REMAINS A VRY DIFFICULT FCST AS TIMG OF THE SYS MOVG EWD
WL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PCPN TYPE. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS THRU THE REGION.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

MID/UPR CTR SPINNING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DAY 2 AS IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE OVER THE S CTRL U.S. THE
REMNANT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S....REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE SAT. STRONG LOW LVL
INFLOW OVERLAPPED BY FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MDT/HVY PCPN THAT SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY FROM ERN
KS/OK/TX TO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATL STATES. THE HPC FORECAST
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM...SUPPRESSING AMTS FURTHER TO THE S
WHILE ADVANCING PCPN MORE RAPIDLY TO THE E THAN THE NAM. AS NOTED
IN THE PMDHMD...THE NAM...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS WERE THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREFMEAN WHICH SERVED AS A BASIS FOR THE MANUAL
FORECAST. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE OF PRODUCTS FOR INFO
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

[msstateguy83]

all i gotta say its VERY influx situation ALL eyes on the upper level low, position of the front as we head into this evening, overnight...

[msstateguy83]

also as we head into this evening another tool (short range one) is the ruc we need to be looking @ it to see what it shows us with the front, movement upper level temps,exc,exc...

edit: just quick obs @ the ruc it looks to have the front on a much faster pace dropping temps in a 3 hour span from upper 50s
to near 40 by 06z in sw oklahoma

[DentonGal]

HPC QPF Disco...perhaps some of the questions will be answered after reading and why things are so fluid...as I noted yesterday there appeared to be some convective issues seen at that time in some of the guidance. That senario is creating problems in the form of convective feedback issues in todays runs. Stay Tuned. It's going to be a bumpy ride...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/0000 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...
PTRN ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN MIXED WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPG SWD
TO THE UPR GRT LKS...WHILE SPLIT FLOW/WEAK REX BLOCK REMAINS OVR
THE WRN U.S.. MDLS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE POLAR VORTEX AND ASSOCD
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVR THE NERN U.S.. PRBLMS ARISE OVR THE GRT
BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLNS AS TIMG/STRENGTHEN OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV EVOLVG INTO A POTENT VORTEX IS SHOWG SOME DIFFS ON DAY
1...WITH LRGR DIFFS IN LATER PDS.

...NERN U.S....
SVRL SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
AND PULL STG HGT FALLS/SFC COLD FNT SEWD ACRS THE REGION THAT WL
PROVIDE A PD OF DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT ERLY IN THE PD. INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR ACRS THE WARMER LKS WL INDUCE LK EFFECT SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FNTL BNDRY WITH LCLLY HVY SNOWS TO THE SE OF THE GRT
LKS. SYNOPTIC MSTR CONTRIBUTION IS NOT THAT GRT...SO NOT XPCTG
REALLY BIG AMTS AT THIS TIME. SOME LGT PCPN WL FALL ERLY TNGT THRU
THE OH VLY TO MID MS VLY ALNG/AHD OF THE SHRTWV/SFC BNDRY.

...INTERIOR SWRN U.S. INTO SRN PLNS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BREWING OVR THE REGION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SLGT DIFFS IN THE GUID. ALSO CONCERNED ABT CNVCTN DVLPG ON THU AND
PSBLY INTERRUPTING THE STG SRLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION. SOME
GUID IS SHOWG SIGNS OF FEEDBACK WITH QUESTIONABLE MIDLVL SHRTWVS
DVLPG AHD OF THE MAIN MIDLVL FEATURE OVR THE SRN HI PLNS. SHRTWV
OF CONCERN IS WRKG THRU NWRN MEX THIS AFTN...UNDER A HIER LAT RDG.
ADDTNL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPG THRU THE GRT BASIN WL LKLY PHASE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV INTO THE A CLSD LOW OVR ERN NM ON
THU. PRBLMS ARISE DUE TO SOME GUID...ESPCLY THE NAM FORMG A LEAD
SHRTWV AHD OF THE MAIN SYS THAT RESULTS IN A VRY COMPACT CLSD LOW.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG A LEAD SHRTWV...BUT MUCH WEAKER
AND AS A RESULT...A MUCH BROADER CLSD LOW DVLPG OVR THE REGION.
THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLU. PCPN FM THE MDLS IS VARIABLE AS THEY ARE
HANDLING THE MOIST INFLOW/LOLVL THERMAL FORCG DIFFERENTLY. PRBLM
WE ARE HAVG IS THE BIG PCPN AMTS OVR THE SRN TX PHNDL...WHICH ARE
MUCH ABV SEASONAL NRMLS AND ACTUALLY QUITE HI FOR EVEN A VRY
MOIST/WRM SUMMER DAY. MSTR FEEDG NWD FM THE GULF OF MEX WL CONT TO
SATURATE THE REGION TNGT WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT OVR THE SRN
ROCKIES ERLY TNGT...THEN SPRDG EWD ALNG/N THE SFC/8H BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE SRN PLNS. MDLS SHOW VRY STG LOLVL THERMAL
FORCG/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STG CVRG IN THE 8H-7H LYR...ALTHO THERE
ARE DIFFS IN PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION OF THE STGR LOLVL CVRG. SREF PW
ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML OVR THE SRN HI PLNS ERLY THU
MRNG...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL TX BY THU AFTN AS HGT
FALLS PUSH ACRS THE REGION AND INITIAL UPR JET STREAK PUSHES EWD.
MDLS ARE HINTING AT CNVCTN EVOLVG INTO PSBLY A SQUALL LN AND MOVG
EWD THRU NRN TX...ALNG/S OF THE E-W FNTL BNDRY...WITH CELLS DVLPG
SWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.25 INCHES IS FCST
THRU CNTRL TX THAT IS ALIGNED WITH A ZONE OF MOD/STG LOLVL
CVRG/LIS BLO ZERO AND COULD EASILY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. LATER
TNGT AND ESPCLY ON THU THE INCRSG SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX WL
SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES WITH VALUES 3-5 STDS ABV NRML
AIMED INTO NWRN TX ERLY...THEN SHIFTING INTO CNTRL TX BY THE END
OF THE PD. THIS IS ANOTHER GD SIGN OF CNVCTN WRKG EWD AND BCMG
ALIGNED WITH THE MOIST AXIS/MST FLUX AXIS. WITH THE CLSD LOW STILL
BACK OVR NM BY LATE IN THE PD...THERE COULD BE A SCNDRY SWATH OF
MOD PCPN ASSOCD WITH AN UPR JET STREAK THAT WOULD FAVOR PULLING
PCPN NWWD THRU THE NRN TX PHNDL INTO NERN NM. TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE SIX HR PROGS. OVERALL...XPCT A LRG REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN
THRU THE REGION WITH THE HVIER PCPN FOCUSED FM NWRN INTO NCNTRL TX
WHERE CVNCTN COULD BOOST RNFL AMTS TO 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
PCPN TYPE REMAINS A VRY DIFFICULT FCST AS TIMG OF THE SYS MOVG EWD
WL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PCPN TYPE. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS THRU THE REGION.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

MID/UPR CTR SPINNING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DAY 2 AS IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE OVER THE S CTRL U.S. THE
REMNANT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S....REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE SAT. STRONG LOW LVL
INFLOW OVERLAPPED BY FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MDT/HVY PCPN THAT SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY FROM ERN
KS/OK/TX TO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATL STATES. THE HPC FORECAST
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM...SUPPRESSING AMTS FURTHER TO THE S
WHILE ADVANCING PCPN MORE RAPIDLY TO THE E THAN THE NAM. AS NOTED
IN THE PMDHMD...THE NAM...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS WERE THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREFMEAN WHICH SERVED AS A BASIS FOR THE MANUAL
FORECAST. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE OF PRODUCTS FOR INFO
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

Oh, dear Lord! Can someone explain this to me....and please feel free to talk to me as if I were stupid!

[rainman31]

I am also in Denton and it sounds like it going to mainly be a rain event.

[Ntxw]

Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecasts. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure. Expect rain but IF anything else 'special' happens don't be shocked.

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecast. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.

Are we talking like 1 in 1,000,000?

So you are telling me there is a chance?

[txtiff]

:uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecast. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.

What do you mean by HAVOC?? That it will be even harder to forecast? Or it could be worse then everyone is thinking?

[DentonGal]

:uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecasts. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.

THANKS! That, I understood Ntxw!